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  #31  
Old 09-10-2017, 09:10 AM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Okay - 3 in 5 years. But I was also thinking in terms of pitching equivalents of Leury, Delmonico, Sanchez, Davidson...someone who could at least take the ball and pitch decently in the 4 or 5 spot.
What starter has come out of the system since Q? Rodon - okay but they used the #3 pick in the draft for him. Although they haven't developed great position players, they have done better there than pitching, since Q, imo.

Anyway, a year from now, Jimenez and Kopech will be up, and I see the Sox being in a similar position as they were in, say, 2015, much younger, but with similar weaknesses: light hitting C, CF and 3b. A couple of starters short (and probably several relievers short). That's okay as that is year 2 of a rebuild....
I'm not sure what your definition of scrap heap is, then, because only Delmonico fits mine. Sanchez was a true prospect who signed with the Sox at 17, performed well throughout the minors and came up at a reasonable age. Leury and Davidson were acquired by trading major leaguers.

The Sox have a bunch of good starting prospects in the first category (like Stephens, Adams, and Guerrero) and have acquired more (like Dunning, Cease and Puckett) through trades. None of those guys are scrap pitchers but there is plenty of depth to fill out the rotation.

Shields, Gonzalez, Holland, Pelfrey...you aren't really hoping for more of those guys?
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  #32  
Old 09-10-2017, 09:13 AM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by Falstaff View Post
I am 99% on board with you but it's not too late to trade Mike Pelfrey for some really raw 100 mph arm who is an underachiever, like Jenks 2.0. That's the one I have been pushing for.
Yes it is. Nobody wants Pelfrey. And they already picked up Victor Diaz, who fits your profile.
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  #33  
Old 09-10-2017, 09:18 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is online now
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Anyway, a year from now, Jimenez and Kopech will be up, and I see the Sox being in a similar position as they were in, say, 2015, much younger, but with similar weaknesses: light hitting C, CF and 3b. A couple of starters short (and probably several relievers short). That's okay as that is year 2 of a rebuild....
And it's OK to be short in those areas in a year, because it seems that those are positions where we have been acquiring talent and drafting organizational depth with Collins, Zavala, and Skoug; Robert, Rutherford, and Gonzalez; and Burger, Yurchak, and Villa. And there will still be plenty of pitchers developing: Hansen, Cease, Dunning, Adams, Stephens, Clarkin, Guerrero.

If I had to bet now, I'm guessing Kopech and Jimenez arrive around June 1, 2018; Hansen, Burger, and Collins, around June 1, 2019; purely for service time considerations.
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  #34  
Old 09-10-2017, 09:19 AM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
As long as Moncada keeps slinging leather and taking walks I'm not going to be concerned. I think the hitting will come around eventually.
Yes, his batting eye gives me confidence in him. This is one thing he does that rookies rarely do which is see the major league ball well enough to take plenty of walks. I suspect Moncada will have a very good year next year and will be off and running.
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  #35  
Old 09-10-2017, 09:41 AM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Okay - 3 in 5 years. But I was also thinking in terms of pitching equivalents of Leury, Delmonico, Sanchez, Davidson...someone who could at least take the ball and pitch decently in the 4 or 5 spot.
What starter has come out of the system since Q? Rodon - okay but they used the #3 pick in the draft for him. Although they haven't developed great position players, they have done better there than pitching, since Q, imo.

Anyway, a year from now, Jimenez and Kopech will be up, and I see the Sox being in a similar position as they were in, say, 2015, much younger, but with similar weaknesses: light hitting C, CF and 3b. A couple of starters short (and probably several relievers short). That's okay as that is year 2 of a rebuild....
A year from now I think the rotation will be almost complete. Assuming Rodon gets healthy we'll have Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, Kopech, and the last year of Shields with Hansen waiting in the wings. Dunning won't be far behind Hansen and there will be a host of other guys in the next group down, Adams, Stephens, Guerrero, Fulmer, Clarkin, Puckett, at AAA and AA in case of injury or failure.

Position players will be another year away but Collins will spend most of the year at AA and not be too far removed from getting his shot at C in the majors. What we really need is for Zavala to show he can catch and be the right handed compliment to Collins. Not much question he can hit.

If Luis Robert is the beast they say he is then he should shoot through the lower minors (2-3 levels next year perhaps) and only be a year or two away himself. Every indication is that he has the speed and ability to stick at CF.

Third is filled by Davidson for now so there is less of a hurry on Burger but as a developed college player he will probably move fairly quickly.

I think all those guys will be here by late 2019 or 2020 at the latest. The questions in my mind is who will be the third outfielder and when will they arrive? Will they stick with Avi? Will Rutherford develop? Will Adolfo continue to develp on the path he showed this year? Or will a darkhorse like Cordell, Gonzalez, Basabe or even Polo take off and surpass the higher rated guys?

And lastly, will Sheets develop and take over at first moving Jose to DH a couple years from now when he starts to slow down from age? Or will Gillaspie be able to hit enough to become a power hitting, switch hitting, DH for us?

The Sox have high rated young talent at every position right now. I have high confidence in a lot of them but there are quite a few that still have questions to answer before we know if they are going to be quality major leaguers or not. But there is enough talent there today that they should be able to trade for or sign free agents to fill whatever holes remain come 2020/2021. The bullpen is the one place I expect, and want, them to sign some free agents to compliment a few younger guys they bring up. It is harder to predict where any other needs might still exist but I don't think the rotation will be one of them. Too much depth there.
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  #36  
Old 09-10-2017, 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Honestly, if Andre Dawson can win an MVP on a last-place team, then why can't Rick Hahn win Executive of the Year on a last-place team? A reasonable, rational argument definitely can be made that no other GM in the game did a better job of improving his team's future outlook.
Isn't it generally acknowledged that Dawson was one of the weakest MVP picks in modern history? He wasn't even a top 10 (maybe even 15) player in the NL that season.
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  #37  
Old 09-10-2017, 10:46 PM
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Originally Posted by shes View Post
Isn't it generally acknowledged that Dawson was one of the weakest MVP picks in modern history? He wasn't even a top 10 (maybe even 15) player in the NL that season.
He led the league in HR - 49 and RBI - 137 while scoring 90. He posted an .896 OPS.

His team sucked. He did not.
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  #38  
Old 09-10-2017, 11:07 PM
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
He led the league in HR - 49 and RBI - 137 while scoring 90. He posted an .896 OPS.

His team sucked. He did not.
He didn't suck, but he was nowhere near the best player in the NL. He won the award solely based on counting stats. Guys like Gwynn and Davis blew him out of the water (as did Rock, Smith, Bonds, Van Slyke, Strawberry, Murphy and a host of others). I mean compare his numbers to someone like Jack Clark, even (.286/.459/.597). There's no real argument for Dawson.

The 1980s are probably the worst post-war decade when it comes to awards. You've got guys like Dawson winning the MVP in 87, four relief pitchers winning Cy Youngs (including two winning MVP), great seasons from all-time great players going by essentially unrecognized (like Ripken in 1984). It's really pretty fascinating to look at.
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  #39  
Old 09-11-2017, 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted by shes View Post
He didn't suck, but he was nowhere near the best player in the NL. He won the award solely based on counting stats. Guys like Gwynn and Davis blew him out of the water (as did Rock, Smith, Bonds, Van Slyke, Strawberry, Murphy and a host of others). I mean compare his numbers to someone like Jack Clark, even (.286/.459/.597). There's no real argument for Dawson.

The 1980s are probably the worst post-war decade when it comes to awards. You've got guys like Dawson winning the MVP in 87, four relief pitchers winning Cy Youngs (including two winning MVP), great seasons from all-time great players going by essentially unrecognized (like Ripken in 1984). It's really pretty fascinating to look at.
He hit 14 more HR than Clark and drove in over 31 more runs while playing on a last place team.
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  #40  
Old 09-11-2017, 02:07 AM
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
He hit 14 more HR than Clark and drove in over 31 more runs while playing on a last place team.
Clark was nonetheless a more dominant offensive player. I don't care about RBIs -- borderline meaningless stat when assessing these things. Clark led the majors in walks, OBP, and slugging. He also hit a Bonds-like .330/.500/.665 with men on base, so it's not like he was somehow a lesser hitter than Dawson in those run-producing situations.

Anyway, Clark is just one guy among many. The real case is for Eric Davis, who came within 3 home runs of a 40/50 season (in only 129 games!) while playing Gold Glove defense. That he could essentially have a Mike Trout season and finish 9th in the voting is pretty crazy.
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  #41  
Old 09-11-2017, 09:34 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by soxfanatlanta View Post
For a team that very well could finish 40 below .500?

Ask again in 5-6 years...if he still has a job.
I hope it won't take that long! If we're still waiting for a verdict on Hahn's success in 2022 or '23, then this rebuild will have gone off the rails.
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  #42  
Old 09-11-2017, 09:44 AM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
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I don't care about RBIs -- borderline meaningless stat when assessing these things
Oy vey.
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  #43  
Old 09-11-2017, 11:49 AM
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Oy vey.
If your MVP vote hinges on the fact that Guy A has more RBIs than Guy B, you aren't making a well thought out decision. Barry Bonds only averaged 100 RBI/season from 02-04 -- I guess we shouldn't consider those three of the most historically dominant offensive seasons in MLB history because he couldn't drive in nearly as many runs as Richie Sexson or Preston Wilson.
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  #44  
Old 09-11-2017, 12:51 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
A year from now I think the rotation will be almost complete. Assuming Rodon gets healthy we'll have Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, Kopech, and the last year of Shields with Hansen waiting in the wings. Dunning won't be far behind Hansen and there will be a host of other guys in the next group down, Adams, Stephens, Guerrero, Fulmer, Clarkin, Puckett, at AAA and AA in case of injury or failure.

Position players will be another year away but Collins will spend most of the year at AA and not be too far removed from getting his shot at C in the majors. What we really need is for Zavala to show he can catch and be the right handed compliment to Collins. Not much question he can hit.

If Luis Robert is the beast they say he is then he should shoot through the lower minors (2-3 levels next year perhaps) and only be a year or two away himself. Every indication is that he has the speed and ability to stick at CF.

Third is filled by Davidson for now so there is less of a hurry on Burger but as a developed college player he will probably move fairly quickly.

I think all those guys will be here by late 2019 or 2020 at the latest. The questions in my mind is who will be the third outfielder and when will they arrive? Will they stick with Avi? Will Rutherford develop? Will Adolfo continue to develp on the path he showed this year? Or will a darkhorse like Cordell, Gonzalez, Basabe or even Polo take off and surpass the higher rated guys?

And lastly, will Sheets develop and take over at first moving Jose to DH a couple years from now when he starts to slow down from age? Or will Gillaspie be able to hit enough to become a power hitting, switch hitting, DH for us?

The Sox have high rated young talent at every position right now. I have high confidence in a lot of them but there are quite a few that still have questions to answer before we know if they are going to be quality major leaguers or not. But there is enough talent there today that they should be able to trade for or sign free agents to fill whatever holes remain come 2020/2021. The bullpen is the one place I expect, and want, them to sign some free agents to compliment a few younger guys they bring up. It is harder to predict where any other needs might still exist but I don't think the rotation will be one of them. Too much depth there.
Great summary. We won't have to wait years and years to find out about all of these guys. Some will be here sometime next season or perhaps to start 2019. Not all of these prospects will pan out, but it's nice to have so many options if/when some of these guys falter.

It'll be very disappointing if Rodon does indeed have a serious shoulder injury. But, that loss alone shouldn't be enough to sink this rebuild with so much other pitching talent making its way through the system.

Some of those position players probably won't pan out, but the Sox should be prepared to get 1 or 2 top free agents to fill any holes when they're ready to compete again. The bigger question mark for Burger might be his defense at third as opposed to his offensive ability. It's far from certain that he's our future 3B.

For the bullpen, I'm still hopeful that Zack Burdi will turn out to be a good major league reliever once he's back from TJ surgery. Some of the many starting pitching hopefuls you mentioned might end up succeeding in the bullpen, too.
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  #45  
Old 09-12-2017, 12:57 PM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
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Originally Posted by shes View Post
If your MVP vote hinges on the fact that Guy A has more RBIs than Guy B, you aren't making a well thought out decision. Barry Bonds only averaged 100 RBI/season from 02-04 -- I guess we shouldn't consider those three of the most historically dominant offensive seasons in MLB history because he couldn't drive in nearly as many runs as Richie Sexson or Preston Wilson.
No, I actually agree with you that Dawson was not the best choice for MVP that year. He probably wasn't 2nd or 3rd best choice either. I am just way beyond tired of hearing that this or that stat does not matter. They all matter in their proper context. Plus you're actually allowed to make value judgments on players after watching them play the game.
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