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  #16  
Old 01-08-2020, 04:34 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
I think the big question is how much do they want to spend moving forward. By my count they had a payroll of about $112M in 2015, of which about $75M was committed to 2016 (and LaRoche's retirement freed up some more cash), so it's not like they were bumping up against the luxury tax threshold. They just choose not to spend any money on free agents going into 2016.
Exactly.

I’m not laying any of the blame at Hahn’s feet for this offseason. This is all Reinsdorf’s doing.

Everybody mentions “payroll flexibility” and completely ignores the fact that payroll is as flexible right now as it ever will be. Every single long-term piece is making peanuts this year. “Compromising the core” went out the window once Robert signed an extension.

No, the White Sox should not have outbid the Yankees for Gerrit Cole. However, they definitely should have gone to $30 AAV on Wheeler or added a guaranteed 6th year. He was their target, and they were not aggressive enough with their offer.

Think about it realistically. How many people would want to relocate for a 6% bump in pay? I know I certainly wouldn’t do it.

Hahn gets a “B” right now. Reinsdorf gets a “C-“ right now.
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  #17  
Old 01-08-2020, 04:44 PM
JohnTucker0814 JohnTucker0814 is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Exactly.

I’m not laying any of the blame at Hahn’s feet for this offseason. This is all Reinsdorf’s doing.

Everybody mentions “payroll flexibility” and completely ignores the fact that payroll is as flexible right now as it ever will be. Every single long-term piece is making peanuts this year. “Compromising the core” went out the window once Robert signed an extension.

No, the White Sox should not have outbid the Yankees for Gerrit Cole. However, they definitely should have gone to $30 AAV on Wheeler or added a guaranteed 6th year. He was their target, and they were not aggressive enough with their offer.

Think about it realistically. How many people would want to relocate for a 6% bump in pay? I know I certainly wouldn’t do it.

Hahn gets a “B” right now. Reinsdorf gets a “C-“ right now.
Yeah, us normal folk wouldn't move across the country for a 6% bump in pay, because if you make $100,000, it's only $6,000... but for Wheeler, 6% bump in pay on $20,000,000 is an additional $1,200,000... that's a significant raise.
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  #18  
Old 01-08-2020, 04:56 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is online now
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Exactly.

I’m not laying any of the blame at Hahn’s feet for this offseason. This is all Reinsdorf’s doing.

Everybody mentions “payroll flexibility” and completely ignores the fact that payroll is as flexible right now as it ever will be. Every single long-term piece is making peanuts this year. “Compromising the core” went out the window once Robert signed an extension.

No, the White Sox should not have outbid the Yankees for Gerrit Cole. However, they definitely should have gone to $30 AAV on Wheeler or added a guaranteed 6th year. He was their target, and they were not aggressive enough with their offer.

Think about it realistically. How many people would want to relocate for a 6% bump in pay? I know I certainly wouldn’t do it.

Hahn gets a “B” right now. Reinsdorf gets a “C-“ right now.
Except they relocated anyways. They weren't living in his wife's parent's basement outside of Philly the whole time with the Mets.
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  #19  
Old 01-08-2020, 04:59 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Well moving forward this team is about to get very expensive starting in 2022 with the increasing contracts and arbitration years of Anderson, Eloy, Robert, Moncada, Giolito, Lopez and Kopech. There's a very good chance they will be making around $50mil more combined then.

Of the contracts coming off the books before then, Colome, Herrera, Cishek, McCann, Encarnacion, Mazara; their positions will need to be replaced with similar money. Rodon and Gonzalez are the only players I can see being replaced completely in house, though a lot can happen in the next 2 seasons with the staff. Needing another $18-30mil pitcher in a crucial WS window year is definite possibility.

The payroll realistically will be at or higher than $170mil and likely to be higher in '23. They have planned for this and really have no choice but to go this high to keep it's core, maintain a quality bullpen, and keep the other holes plugged in the team.
Unless they plan on just letting attrition chip away at the core, which is just something that happens naturally when a championship window closes.

With no other big-time pitching acquisition, the best-case scenario is probably 2021-2022-2023 each being seasons where this team should waltz to AL Central titles, with 2024 and 2025 being less competitive, and 2026 being the year that the bottom drops out. One more starter, even if it’s just a 1-year gamble, would put 2020 firmly in play and possibly turn that 3-year streak into a 4-year streak, even if some things go wrong or even if some guys get hurt.

If they stopped after Grandal and Keuchel, made low-key moves like the Mazara move, and signed someone like King Felix to an Ervin Santana-type deal, it would have been fine to just call 2020 an acclimation year for Grandal and Keuchel and a development year for all the young guys. However, adding 1-year guys like EE and Cishek should now make that option unacceptable. Why waste the nearly $60 invested in 2020 payroll by quitting now?
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  #20  
Old 01-08-2020, 05:10 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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Originally Posted by JohnTucker0814 View Post
Yeah, us normal folk wouldn't move across the country for a 6% bump in pay, because if you make $100,000, it's only $6,000... but for Wheeler, 6% bump in pay on $20,000,000 is an additional $1,200,000... that's a significant raise.
In absolute dollars, to us, sure. But the marginal utility of that $1.2 million is nothing to a guy who has $117 million coming his way, and it keeps his wife happy.

Forfeiting 6 pennies on the dollar to keep your wife happy is just good business sense. Forfeiting a quarter out of every dollar may be an entirely different story.

This town is quite lovely in the summer, especially with an extra $8 million in your pocket every year. At that point, pining for Piscataway seems a bit misguided.
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  #21  
Old 01-08-2020, 05:56 PM
asindc asindc is offline
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In absolute dollars, to us, sure. But the marginal utility of that $1.2 million is nothing to a guy who has $117 million coming his way, and it keeps his wife happy.

Forfeiting 6 pennies on the dollar to keep your wife happy is just good business sense. Forfeiting a quarter out of every dollar may be an entirely different story.

This town is quite lovely in the summer, especially with an extra $8 million in your pocket every year. At that point, pining for Piscataway seems a bit misguided.
Apparently, that is not what she was pining for.
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  #22  
Old 01-08-2020, 06:04 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is online now
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Unless they plan on just letting attrition chip away at the core, which is just something that happens naturally when a championship window closes.

With no other big-time pitching acquisition, the best-case scenario is probably 2021-2022-2023 each being seasons where this team should waltz to AL Central titles, with 2024 and 2025 being less competitive, and 2026 being the year that the bottom drops out. One more starter, even if it’s just a 1-year gamble, would put 2020 firmly in play and possibly turn that 3-year streak into a 4-year streak, even if some things go wrong or even if some guys get hurt.

If they stopped after Grandal and Keuchel, made low-key moves like the Mazara move, and signed someone like King Felix to an Ervin Santana-type deal, it would have been fine to just call 2020 an acclimation year for Grandal and Keuchel and a development year for all the young guys. However, adding 1-year guys like EE and Cishek should now make that option unacceptable. Why waste the nearly $60 invested in 2020 payroll by quitting now?
I'm not suggesting what the payroll will be for '24 and beyond, has everything to do with what happens the years prior to that. $170mil might be the new norm for them in competing years and would be borderline top 10 for the league. If that's what you were referring to with attrition.

What 1-2 year pitching options are there that "firmly" put 2020 into a WS contending season? Please don't say Arrieta....

No one as any clue if '24-25 will be worse teams than '21-23, that's a huge assumption. Even bigger one is that '26 is a year where the bottom drops out.

There will be room to add at the deadline if they need to add a rental SP or 1.5 year SP.
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  #23  
Old 01-08-2020, 07:25 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
I'm not suggesting what the payroll will be for '24 and beyond, has everything to do with what happens the years prior to that. $170mil might be the new norm for them in competing years and would be borderline top 10 for the league. If that's what you were referring to with attrition.

What 1-2 year pitching options are there that "firmly" put 2020 into a WS contending season? Please don't say Arrieta....

No one as any clue if '24-25 will be worse teams than '21-23, that's a huge assumption. Even bigger one is that '26 is a year where the bottom drops out.

There will be room to add at the deadline if they need to add a rental SP or 1.5 year SP.
Following 2023: Grandal, Moncada, Giolito all are free agents
Following 2024: TA, Kopech, and Bummer all are free agents
Following 2025: Cease is a free agent
Following 2026: any players who debut in 2020 will be free agents.

2026 would be all about flipping Eloy and Robert at the end of their team-friendly contracts for massive returns to start the process anew.
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  #24  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:08 PM
pmck003 pmck003 is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Exactly.

I’m not laying any of the blame at Hahn’s feet for this offseason. This is all Reinsdorf’s doing.

Everybody mentions “payroll flexibility” and completely ignores the fact that payroll is as flexible right now as it ever will be. Every single long-term piece is making peanuts this year. “Compromising the core” went out the window once Robert signed an extension.

No, the White Sox should not have outbid the Yankees for Gerrit Cole. However, they definitely should have gone to $30 AAV on Wheeler or added a guaranteed 6th year. He was their target, and they were not aggressive enough with their offer.

Think about it realistically. How many people would want to relocate for a 6% bump in pay? I know I certainly wouldn’t do it.

Hahn gets a “B” right now. Reinsdorf gets a “C-“ right now.
We don't know how the negotiations played out (unless you have inside information). It's possible the Phillies offered what they did and Wheeler signed without hearing a counter. It's possible that if the Sox had offered more, the Phillies might have as well.

If your the Phillies and you made an offer, would you be ok if Wheeler said he wanted to see if the Sox would offer more? Probably not - you might actually tell Wheeler take it or we are out. There is some potential risk for him there if he holds out for more; not to mention a potentially angry wife if he signs with another team for only a little more money.

Do you think it would have been smart for the Sox to tell his agent that they would pay X amount more than anyone else?
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  #25  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:10 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Following 2023: Grandal, Moncada, Giolito all are free agents
Following 2024: TA, Kopech, and Bummer all are free agents
Following 2025: Cease is a free agent
Following 2026: any players who debut in 2020 will be free agents.

2026 would be all about flipping Eloy and Robert at the end of their team-friendly contracts for massive returns to start the process anew.
The Sox have a club option for Robert for 2027.
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  #26  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:48 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Except they relocated anyways. They weren't living in his wife's parent's basement outside of Philly the whole time with the Mets.
Relocating from one town under an hour away from your extended family to another one within an hour of your extended family is not the same type of relocation as moving 800 miles away.
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  #27  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:56 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is online now
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Following 2023: Grandal, Moncada, Giolito all are free agents
Following 2024: TA, Kopech, and Bummer all are free agents
Following 2025: Cease is a free agent
Following 2026: any players who debut in 2020 will be free agents.

2026 would be all about flipping Eloy and Robert at the end of their team-friendly contracts for massive returns to start the process anew.
Well yes, I know what the current players years of control look like.

Just assuming that extensions or trades won't happen over the next 4-6 years from a front office that is very aggressive in both regards, doesn't make sense.

Waiting to hear who these pitching options are that will make the Sox instant WS contenders now if only Jerry would spend the money and not be cheap....
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  #28  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:59 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is online now
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Relocating from one town under an hour away from your extended family to another one within an hour of your extended family is not the same type of relocation as moving 800 miles away.
I get it, but finding and moving to a new house is still a hassle an hour and a half away.
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  #29  
Old 01-08-2020, 09:06 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
The Sox have a club option for Robert for 2027.
Right. I’m talking about anyone who goes through the normal progression without an extension.
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  #30  
Old 01-08-2020, 09:09 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Well yes, I know what the current players years of control look like.

Just assuming that extensions or trades won't happen over the next 4-6 years from a front office that is very aggressive in both regards, doesn't make sense.

Waiting to hear who these pitching options are that will make the Sox instant WS contenders now if only Jerry would spend the money and not be cheap....
I’m also assuming that each player on that list will be good enough and healthy enough to make it all the way to 6+ years of service.
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