Funny past prospect rankings

[Huisj]

I came across this page on BaseballAmerica that shows their top 100 prospects lists from each year going back to 1990. It's pretty funny to go back and look at where people from the Sox were ranked and see who was similarly thought of at that time.

Here are some good ones:

2011:
84. Tanner Scheppers, rhp, Rangers
85. Brent Morel, 3b/ss, White Sox
86. Craig Kimbrel, rhp, Braves
I think some were underestimating Kimbrel's arm.

2007:
43. Joey Votto, 1b, Reds
44. James Loney, 1b, Dodgers
45. Josh Fields, 3b, White Sox

72. Gio Gonzalez, lhp, White Sox
73. Philip Humber, rhp, Mets


2006:
49. Ryan Braun, 3b, Brewers
50. Andrew McCutchen, of, Pirates
51. Brian Anderson, of, White Sox
Yeah, I wish.

2001:
36. Joe Crede, 3b, White Sox
37. Ben Christensen, rhp, Cubs
38. Jack Cust, of/1b, Diamondbacks
39. Bud Smith, lhp, Cardinals
40. Jacob Peavy, rhp, Padres
41. Adam Johnson, rhp, Twins
42. Albert Pujols, 3b, Cardinals
43. Aubrey Huff, 3b, Devil Rays
44. Matt Ginter, rhp, White Sox
This whole section cracks me up. The Crede-Pujols-Huff proximity and the Peavy-Ginter one too are just great.

2000:
63. Aaron Myette, rhp, White Sox
64. Adam Eaton, rhp, Padres
65. Ben Sheets, rhp, Brewers
If Myette could have been Adam Eaton, that would have been nice. If he had been Ben Sheets, whoa.

1998:
56. Magglio Ordonez, of, White Sox
57. Julio Ramirez, of, Marlins
Maybe this list was why Jerry Manuel insisted on playing him over and over at the start of 2001--he was supposed to be as good as Ordonez.

1994:
6. Alex Rodriguez, ss, Mariners
7. Manny Ramirez, of, Indians
8. James Baldwin, rhp, White Sox

1990:
29. Frank Thomas, 1b, White Sox
30. Tom Goodwin, of, Dodgers
31. Bob Hamelin, 1b, Royals
Yes indeed, Bob Hamelin was just a poor man's Frank Thomas.

[shingo10]

This goes to show that there is absolutely no thing as a baseball "expert."

And there never will be. Rankings and the like really don't mean much except for helping determine what kind of value they have in a trade.

[SephClone89]

Originally Posted by shingo10

This goes to show that there is absolutely no thing as a baseball "expert."

Well uh, no. That's not what this shows at all.

[shingo10]

Originally Posted by SephClone89

Well uh, no. That's not what this shows at all.

Why don't you enlighten us then?

[SI1020]

Originally Posted by shingo10

This goes to show that there is absolutely no thing as a baseball "expert."

And there never will be. Rankings and the like really don't mean much except for helping determine what kind of value they have in a trade.

It is much harder to predict who will make it in baseball, compared to say football and basketball players.

[Bucky F. Dent]

James Baldwin, #8! Yow! That was a miss.

[rdivaldi]

Originally Posted by shingo10

This goes to show that there is absolutely no thing as a baseball "expert."

I echo the sentiment that this statement is a bit out of bounds. If there were no baseball experts then there would be no use for scouting. You could just throw darts at player's names and do the draft that way.

Just because players are missed in top 100's is no reason to dismiss "experts".

[Domeshot17]

Its also a ranking of "Prospects". You realize the term prospects derives from the word Prospective. Some guys, like Pujols, just did not fully put it together until they got to the Bigs. It is very cool to look back on, but some average fan that put together a blind top 100 would not do any better but almost surely far worse.

[floridafan]

I have never been a real fan of Baseball America's Ranking process...

[shingo10]

Originally Posted by rdivaldi

I echo the sentiment that this statement is a bit out of bounds. If there were no baseball experts then there would be no use for scouting. You could just throw darts at player's names and do the draft that way.

Just because players are missed in top 100's is no reason to dismiss "experts".

I'm not saying scouting isn't important I'm saying that there is no way to predict who is gonna to evolve and who is going to bust. There just isn't. That's why trades for prospects will always be a huge risk...some of them end up like Aaron Poreda and some of them end up like Gio Gonzales.

[DSpivack]

Originally Posted by shingo10

I'm not saying scouting isn't important I'm saying that there is no way to predict who is gonna to evolve and who is going to bust. There just isn't. That's why trades for prospects will always be a huge risk...some of them end up like Aaron Poreda and some of them end up like Gio Gonzales.

And I think that idea is wrong. That's exactly what scouting is. That's why some players are 1st round draft picks and others are 50th round draft picks. That most of those players fail in baseball is just pure statistics: hundreds of players are drafted every year, there are thousands of players in the minor leagues, but only a small handful of those will make the major leagues. That the best are wrong most of the time doesn't mean they are failing overall and there are no experts in the field, just as you wouldn't call every major league baseball player a failure because they fail in the majority of their at bats.

[SI1020]

Originally Posted by DSpivack

And I think that idea is wrong. That's exactly what scouting is. That's why some players are 1st round draft picks and others are 50th round draft picks. That most of those players fail in baseball is just pure statistics: hundreds of players are drafted every year, there are thousands of players in the minor leagues, but only a small handful of those will make the major leagues. That the best are wrong most of the time doesn't mean they are failing overall and there are no experts in the field, just as you wouldn't call every major league baseball player a failure because they fail in the majority of their at bats.

No problem with what you say here. My contention is that if you studied football and basketball drafts over the years there would be a greater percentage of high draft picks making it in those sports than in baseball. Now, at this point I have neither the time nor the inclination to prove or disprove this. Perhaps someone has done it already, there are more "studies" about more subjects out there these days than ever it seems.

[floridafan]

Scouting is all about tools and size for position players. Scouting has a harder time with Heart, Passion, and a players ability to grind.

I think some Bonus Babies do not feel a need to Grind and display Passion. Others like Trout and Harper have shown that they have the make up to play hard everyday.

If you are not a top round pick the money is not there to be able to even afford to play the game in the minors without family support.

[soxnut1018]

Originally Posted by floridafan

Scouting is all about tools and size for position players. Scouting has a harder time with Heart, Passion, and a players ability to grind.

Chicago tough.

[TheVulture]

Originally Posted by Domeshot17

. Some guys, like Pujols, just did not fully put it together until they got to the Bigs.

Nah, Pujols wasn't ranked higher probably because he was in the low minors in his first professional season. He started in low A Midwest League in 2000, and was in the majors the next year. Meanwhile, Crede was coming off an impressive season at Birmingham.