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  #61  
Old 01-03-2018, 06:07 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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After the past two offseasons, I can only guess that reliever contracts must derive their values on something other than WAR and usage rates.

Look at a guy like Kenley Jansen. Last year, he was basically the Platonic ideal for an MLB closer, and his WAR was still only 3.0 despite his dominance. Meanwhile, Fernando Rodney gave the Diamondbacks 0.4 WAR last year. When I watch the two players, I can’t wrap my head around the fact that Jansen is only 2.6 wins better than Rodney.

Even 9th-inning mastermind Mariano Rivera maxed-out with a 5.0 WAR in 1996, when he was setup man for John Wetteland. A major reason he reached that lofty level was because he had a 107-inning workload that year, a marked increase from his typical 60-70 innings per season when he later ascended to the closer’s role.

The incremental WAR gains between elite guys like Jansen and average guys like Rodney seem to defy the multimillion-dollar differences in their salaries. Teams must be using something else to place value on these guys.
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  #62  
Old 01-03-2018, 07:00 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post

The incremental WAR gains between elite guys like Jansen and average guys like Rodney seem to defy the multimillion-dollar differences in their salaries. Teams must be using something else to place value on these guys.
Yeah, that something else is this:



The Giants are looking at Jay Bruce and Andrew McCutchen.

https://www.mlb.com/news/giants-seek...lp/c-264252764
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Last edited by Grzegorz; 01-04-2018 at 03:57 AM.
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  #63  
Old 01-05-2018, 12:27 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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If you compare teams' cumulative WAR to actual wins, it simply does not add up
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  #64  
Old 01-06-2018, 05:32 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SI1020
Guys like Billy Pierce and especially Whitey Ford get hurt badly in WAR games because for some reason pitchers in their era just didn't get the big WAR totals.
The reason is because the floor for “replacement level” was much higher back then than it is nowadays. The difference between 16 and 30 teams, between 4 and 5-man rotations, and the addition of the DH created a situation where most teams’ #3 starters today wouldn’t have even sniffed the majors in the 1950s, and those guys don’t even represent today’s zero-WAR floor.
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  #65  
Old 01-06-2018, 07:19 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
The reason is because the floor for “replacement level” was much higher back then than it is nowadays. The difference between 16 and 30 teams, between 4 and 5-man rotations, and the addition of the DH created a situation where most teams’ #3 starters today wouldn’t have even sniffed the majors in the 1950s, and those guys don’t even represent today’s zero-WAR floor.
At the risk of opening a massive can of worms, I’ll just say that I don’t buy that a “replacement level player” from the 1950s would be better than such a player today. The US population is much larger. MLB draws from a global talent pool. Year-round training, modern medicine and kinesiology, and diet, mean that today’s players are much more finely-tuned and well-informed about how to improve their games. Technology, math, science, and sabermetrics have revolutionized how players train, practice, and prepare. As a result, the level of competition is so much higher now.
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  #66  
Old 01-06-2018, 11:48 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Yes, if you threw today’s players in a time machine and took them back to the 1950s, they would flat-out dominate. That’s not what this is about. This is about the numbers being put up by replacement-level players today vs. the numbers put up by the replacement-level players of the past. An ERA pushing 5.00 would be a sure-fire ticket out of a starting rotation in those days. Nowadays, guys like that take the ball every fifth day with some frequency.
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  #67  
Old 01-07-2018, 09:10 AM
blurry blurry is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Yes, if you threw today’s players in a time machine and took them back to the 1950s, they would flat-out dominate. That’s not what this is about. This is about the numbers being put up by replacement-level players today vs. the numbers put up by the replacement-level players of the past. An ERA pushing 5.00 would be a sure-fire ticket out of a starting rotation in those days. Nowadays, guys like that take the ball every fifth day with some frequency.
I agree. I also think if you brought a player like Billy Pierce from the past and gave him access with modern day training/medicine, he'd perform at a very high level.
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  #68  
Old 01-07-2018, 12:10 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
An ERA pushing 5.00 would be a sure-fire ticket out of a starting rotation in those days. Nowadays, guys like that take the ball every fifth day with some frequency.
I completely understand and agree. But there are lots of things that go into a pitcher’s ERA that are outside of his control, some of which have to do with how the game is played, which is at least partially connected to the quality of the players.

Pitchers then weren’t routinely throwing 95 MPH; hitters weren’t attempting to crush the ball but rather put it into play - with some degree of bat control - ideally toward the opponent’s weakest fielder or between fielders, or specifically toward a general area of the field to advance or score a base runner. Fewer runs were scored, which meant ERAs were lower.

I think we’re in agreement that, when comparing players from different eras, even WAR hasn’t yet been perfected.
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  #69  
Old 01-10-2018, 11:13 AM
blurry blurry is offline
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Not a conventional signing, but Dave Cameron is leaving Fangraphs to work for the San Diego Padres https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-...i-would-write/
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  #70  
Old 01-10-2018, 11:23 AM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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According to Jon Morosi on Twitter; Cole going to the Astros is "imminent."

Good...better Houston than the Yankees.
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  #71  
Old 01-10-2018, 11:26 AM
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Just saw that. I wonder what the return will be like. Cole's HR/9 jumped last season.
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  #72  
Old 01-10-2018, 11:33 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blurry View Post
Not a conventional signing, but Dave Cameron is leaving Fangraphs to work for the San Diego Padres https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-...i-would-write/
Another win for Saber!

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  #73  
Old 01-10-2018, 12:54 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lip Man 1 View Post
According to Jon Morosi on Twitter; Cole going to the Astros is "imminent."

Good...better Houston than the Yankees.
Is he is or is he ain't an Astro?

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/gerr...come-an-astro/
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  #74  
Old 01-10-2018, 01:32 PM
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Chez Chez is offline
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Am I the only person who always has to remind himself that the Astros are in the American League?!


It took me at least 10 years to think of the Brewers as a National League team.
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  #75  
Old 01-10-2018, 09:36 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Jay Bruce signed with the Mets: 3 years, $39 million.

Perhaps Rick Hahn can make a few phone calls to teams like the Blue Jays and Giants to gauge interest in Avi Garcia. They both were connected to Bruce via the rumor mill.
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