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  #61  
Old 05-10-2018, 09:49 AM
Harry Chappas Harry Chappas is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
Actually his average 4 seam FB has been 92 this season, just about league average. It was well known that he had lost velocity going into 2017, this is not a revelation.
According to Statcast, his average FB this season is 91.4. League average is 92.75. So while not a huge difference, it's a full MPH slower. Then again, I can't vouch for the accuracy of these numbers.

Is there any prevailing theory on what happened to his velocity? Seems like he's pretty young to just 'lose it' from overuse.

In any case, he has shown the ability to still be effective at 92 mph but it requires Quintana/Hendricks-like control which he doesn't have...yet.
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  #62  
Old 05-10-2018, 11:31 AM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Could he be tipping pitches?
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  #63  
Old 05-10-2018, 12:06 PM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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Originally Posted by Lip Man 1 View Post
Could he be tipping pitches?
If he was, I think he'd be getting hammered a lot worse. The only thing I can think of is a mechanical issue. It just doesn't make sense that someone can be throwing 95 as early as last year and ST at his age, yet now he's sitting around the ML average.
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  #64  
Old 05-10-2018, 01:42 PM
KyWhiSoxFan KyWhiSoxFan is offline
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
I realize that Giolito was part of the same deal in which the Sox also acquired Dunning, but aren't there already enough threads in the Clubhouse where Giolito's struggles have been exhaustively documented among all of the legitimate complaints about this year's major league squad? Why do we have to add another steaming pile to a thread literally named DANE DUNNING in the MINOR OBSERVATIONS forum?
Really. The constant bitching and moaning about current Sox players gets tiresome.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I like a lot about what we're seeing from Dunning and can see him being up in 2020. There will be a learning curve there, too, but he seems to be a quick study.
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  #65  
Old 05-10-2018, 04:00 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I agree, but itís too twisted up to split. If you want me to close it and start over I can.
I leave the moderation to moderators; I respect the many hours you put into this to presume to tell you how to do you job.

I just wanted to call out the off-topic negativity. There are plenty of places to be negative about the major league players; a thread about the good performances of one prospect is decidedly not that place.
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  #66  
Old 05-10-2018, 04:51 PM
shes shes is offline
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Originally Posted by GoSox2K3 View Post
He had a 2.38 ERA over 7 starts after being called up last season. Before that, he had mostly good starts in AAA going back to July. That's hardly "here and there" and doesn't quality as "beyond awful for a full 18 months."

I don't deny his struggles are very concerning. But, come on - let's not exaggerate things here.

No one's exaggerating. It truly has been one start here and there where he's looked like a better than average hurler. If you think he looked good during those 7 starts....


The 2.38 ERA was a mirage. He wasn't getting swinging strikes and had lady luck firmly on his side (.189 BABIP will make anyone look liek Max Scherzer). He was clearly due for a massive regression (a la Shields last year when everyone thought he got good again just because he had a nice ERA for a while) and here it is. Most of his AAA stint was atrocious. He obviously picked things up the last 6 weeks before getting promoted. But that's clearly the exception that proves the rule, no? Whatever switch we thought he flipped then wasn't actually flipped. Same with Spring Training this year.



Why make excuses for the kid? Because he was once a blue-chipper? If this was Dylan Covey I don't think people would be singing the same tune.


The guy has no command over a below average fastball and has no idea where his secondary pitches are going 80% of the time they leave his hand. This was true during his last days with the Nats. It's been true during the vast majority of his stint with the Sox, including those 7 starts last season. Obviously you give him all year to try and figure things out. But at some point you put him in the pen and tell him "Fastball, curveball. Just get them near the plate" and hope for the best. Too early to call him a bust, but he's not showing anything right now to make one think he can even be a serviceable back end starter.
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  #67  
Old 05-10-2018, 04:56 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by shes View Post
No one's exaggerating. It truly has been one start here and there where he's looked like a better than average hurler. If you think he looked good during those 7 starts....


The 2.38 ERA was a mirage. He wasn't getting swinging strikes and had lady luck firmly on his side (.189 BABIP will make anyone look liek Max Scherzer). He was clearly due for a massive regression (a la Shields last year when everyone thought he got good again just because he had a nice ERA for a while) and here it is. Most of his AAA stint was atrocious. He obviously picked things up the last 6 weeks before getting promoted. But that's clearly the exception that proves the rule, no? Whatever switch we thought he flipped then wasn't actually flipped. Same with Spring Training this year.



Why make excuses for the kid? Because he was once a blue-chipper? If this was Dylan Covey I don't think people would be singing the same tune.


The guy has no command over a below average fastball and has no idea where his secondary pitches are going 80% of the time they leave his hand. This was true during his last days with the Nats. It's been true during the vast majority of his stint with the Sox, including those 7 starts last season. Obviously you give him all year to try and figure things out. But at some point you put him in the pen and tell him "Fastball, curveball. Just get them near the plate" and hope for the best. Too early to call him a bust, but he's not showing anything right now to make one think he can even be a serviceable back end starter.
I guess we're steering this thread right back to Giolito.
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  #68  
Old 05-10-2018, 04:59 PM
shes shes is offline
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
I guess we're steering this thread right back to Giolito.

If someone's going to accuse me of exaggerating, I'm going to clear things up. Just the way it is.


But okay. On Dunning: I'm convinced he is probably already better than Giolito. Put him in a Sox uniform and I think at this point he could give us a below 6 ERA and more strikeouts than walks.
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  #69  
Old 05-10-2018, 05:34 PM
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DumpJerry DumpJerry is offline
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Okay, this thread now has a slightly out-of-context look because people insisted on posting about Giolito in the Dane Dunning thread in Minor Observations. I moved them here.

If you want to complain, comment, etc. about Giolito, do it here. There is no reason to infest threads that are not about him with your opinions.
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  #70  
Old 05-11-2018, 09:46 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Harry Chappas View Post
According to Statcast, his average FB this season is 91.4. League average is 92.75. So while not a huge difference, it's a full MPH slower. Then again, I can't vouch for the accuracy of these numbers.
.
I see that too, which is different than what Fangraphs is reporting, which is 92.0. Might have something to do with the way that they are recording 4 seam vs. sinkers, but I'm not sure.
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  #71  
Old 05-11-2018, 10:49 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by shes View Post
If someone's going to accuse me of exaggerating, I'm going to clear things up. Just the way it is.


But okay. On Dunning: I'm convinced he is probably already better than Giolito. Put him in a Sox uniform and I think at this point he could give us a below 6 ERA and more strikeouts than walks.
So, on to Dunning, but still make the discussion in the original thread about him all about Giolito?

I'm so glad the mods split this thread. I think someone should double their pay.
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  #72  
Old 05-11-2018, 04:26 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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I see that too, which is different than what Fangraphs is reporting, which is 92.0. Might have something to do with the way that they are recording 4 seam vs. sinkers, but I'm not sure.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.p.../2018&s_type=2
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  #73  
Old 05-11-2018, 05:37 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Interesting, I wonder why the difference between the three sites...
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  #74  
Old 05-11-2018, 06:09 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Interesting, I wonder why the difference between the three sites...
I trust the pitchfx data brooks uses.
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  #75  
Old 05-12-2018, 04:00 PM
shes shes is offline
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
So, on to Dunning, but still make the discussion in the original thread about him all about Giolito?

I'm so glad the mods split this thread. I think someone should double their pay.
It was a joke, francis.
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