White Sox Interactive Forums
Sox Clubhouse
 Soxogram: 
GO SOX! DSNB!

Welcome
Go Back   White Sox Interactive Forums > Baseball Discussions > Sox Clubhouse
Home Chat Stats Register Blogs FAQ Calendar Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #106  
Old 07-09-2019, 02:13 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
Chief Skeptic and 2015 Preseason Predictions Contest Winner
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 7,220
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heffalump View Post
LOL. You beat me to it. It sounds like Madrigal can barely get the ball out of the infield.
That's exactly what he's saying. Here's the source video of Madrigal he's been looking at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MvveylO0X8
Reply With Quote
  #107  
Old 07-09-2019, 04:23 PM
blandman blandman is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,024
Default

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...=2B#battedball


Madrigal has put 293 balls in play this year across levels. He's hit 53 line drives, which only make up 18 percent of batted balls....which is incredibly low. 133 balls were put on the ground, which is 45 percent of his batted balls. Which is really high.


But even moreso than that...this is a trend that hasn't changed. Before the season, BA did a piece on Madrigal insisting that he needs to pull the ball to start driving at a higher rate. He isn't doing that yet, which is why his ISO numbers are still anemic. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...the-ball-more/

Last edited by blandman; 07-09-2019 at 04:31 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #108  
Old 07-09-2019, 04:24 PM
blandman blandman is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,024
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kobo View Post
Jose Altuve didn't slug over .400 until his 3rd full year in the league (2014). Even then he only hit 7 homeruns that year. I see Madrigal developing power in the same way Altuve did, and if that does happen is that a bad thing?

I'd LOVE for that to be the case...but we really shouldn't be putting that kind of expectation on the kid. Also...Altuve got BUFF.
Reply With Quote
  #109  
Old 07-09-2019, 05:15 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 12,062
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
His .485 slugging percent at AA suggests that he is doing more legging out infield hits.
Not when that .485 slugging percentage is paired with a .392 batting average. A .093 ISO is right in line with what he was doing with the Dash.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsemaster Fred
This is the major leagues so get it how you live and letís fight tomorrow.
Reply With Quote
  #110  
Old 07-09-2019, 05:17 PM
blandman blandman is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,024
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Not when that .485 slugging percentage is paired with a .392 batting average. A .093 ISO is right in line with what he was doing with the Dash.

Yeah it's just a small sample. Someone also only used the small sample for his line drive rate, which isn't indicative of what he's really doing.

Madrigal has a .400 BABIP at that level. Suffice it to say he did not have that kind of BABIP prior. That small sample is a mirage. As I mentioned before...he's not pulling the ball. Which makes it funny when people insist he has the control to hit it anywhere on the field. He hasn't shown that at all. Which is part of why he needs more work.

I'm a believer in Madrigal's skills. But he is not ready for the next step. I think he could be an averagish major leaguer right now. But it would stunt his growth for him to start learning how to pull the ball for the first time at this level. Let him adjust his approach before moving up.

Last edited by blandman; 07-09-2019 at 05:23 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #111  
Old 07-09-2019, 06:00 PM
voodoochile's Avatar
voodoochile voodoochile is offline
Soda Jerk/U.P.W./Lester Pooh Bear
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 58,469
Blog Entries: 9
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Yeah it's just a small sample. Someone also only used the small sample for his line drive rate, which isn't indicative of what he's really doing.

Madrigal has a .400 BABIP at that level. Suffice it to say he did not have that kind of BABIP prior. That small sample is a mirage. As I mentioned before...he's not pulling the ball. Which makes it funny when people insist he has the control to hit it anywhere on the field. He hasn't shown that at all. Which is part of why he needs more work.

I'm a believer in Madrigal's skills. But he is not ready for the next step. I think he could be an averagish major leaguer right now. But it would stunt his growth for him to start learning how to pull the ball for the first time at this level. Let him adjust his approach before moving up.
I don't have an opinion on what kind of future Madrigal has but I do agree it's premature to promote him.
__________________

Riding shotgun on the Sox bandwagon since before there was an Internet...
Reply With Quote
  #112  
Old 07-09-2019, 06:16 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
WSI Personality
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,292
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...=2B#battedball


Madrigal has put 293 balls in play this year across levels. He's hit 53 line drives, which only make up 18 percent of batted balls....which is incredibly low. 133 balls were put on the ground, which is 45 percent of his batted balls. Which is really high.


But even moreso than that...this is a trend that hasn't changed. Before the season, BA did a piece on Madrigal insisting that he needs to pull the ball to start driving at a higher rate. He isn't doing that yet, which is why his ISO numbers are still anemic. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...the-ball-more/
Did you even read the stats to the fangraphs link you posted? He is pulling significantly more this season compared to last.... ~30% pull percentage in 2018 and ~40% in 2019 across all levels.

His final year at Oregon St he had 24% of his hits went for extra bases, this year 23%. They drafted him to be that player, and he is currently that player. Again, he will be hitting the ball harder in AAA with the different balls there too.
Reply With Quote
  #113  
Old 07-09-2019, 08:11 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 12,062
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
The thing is - Madrigal doesnít really have a chance to be a special player. He isnít going to be Altuve or Pedroia. He has a chance to be a perennial good to very good player, but weíre still talking a high average high obp sub .800 ops guy in most cases.

He isnít going to hit for much more power. It isnít his game. Heís probably more valuable as a .300-.375-.380 guy than hitting .280 with 6-8 more homers.
For 600 plate appearances, a .300/.375 slash would be 161 hits in 536 at-bats, with 64 additional trips to 1B via walks or getting hit by pitches.

A 20-point drop in batting average and a corresponding point-for-point drop in OBP (I can subtract more OBP if you like) would be 151 hits in 538 at-bats, with 62 additional trips to 1B via walks or getting hit by pitches. We lose 10 hits and 2 walks.

2019 wOBA linear weights for walks, singles, doubles, and home runs are .690, .870, 1.219, and 1.957, respectively. Letís say that 20% of the hits are extra-base hits, so letís call 2 of those 10 missing hits doubles.

The missing production is [2(.690) + 8(.870) + 2(1.219)] / 600 = .018 wOBA.
A generalized exchange rate over a several-decade span suggests that 20 points of wOBA is equivalent to 1 Run Created, so letís call this 1 Run Created.

Now letís look at the low end of your replacement production range.

[6(1.957)] / 600 = .020 wOBA.

Once again, about 1 Run Created.

I donít know if this was intentional, but you found the equilibrium point on this exchange. Itís about 6 home runs for every 20 points of wOBA.

Iíll admit that this isnís overly deep, but I think itís a decent start toward understanding batting averageís value relative to home runs.
Reply With Quote
  #114  
Old 07-09-2019, 09:56 PM
blandman blandman is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,024
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Did you even read the stats to the fangraphs link you posted? He is pulling significantly more this season compared to last.... ~30% pull percentage in 2018 and ~40% in 2019 across all levels.

His final year at Oregon St he had 24% of his hits went for extra bases, this year 23%. They drafted him to be that player, and he is currently that player. Again, he will be hitting the ball harder in AAA with the different balls there too.

Ugh. Once again, don't take his A and AA percentages and average them. He's spent less than a month in AA, that sample size is minisule. His numbers in A last year and this year are roughly the same pull rate. He's lowered his opposite field rate a bit, because he has gone up the middle more. Which is fine, but since he's still hitting almost exclusively ground balls, he's not improving where he needs to.
Reply With Quote
  #115  
Old 07-09-2019, 11:34 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
WSI Personality
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,292
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Ugh. Once again, don't take his A and AA percentages and average them. He's spent less than a month in AA, that sample size is minisule. His numbers in A last year and this year are roughly the same pull rate. He's lowered his opposite field rate a bit, because he has gone up the middle more. Which is fine, but since he's still hitting almost exclusively ground balls, he's not improving where he needs to.
And why aren't we using his AA numbers? He's still playing baseball there and it happens to be against superior pitchers. It would make more sense to use them to increase the overall sample size as the stats we are talking deal in percentages in which sample size matters. But hey, the 25 games in AA are "miniscule", but the 38 games in A ball last year are sufficient.

He's pulling the ball more this year, period. Stop moving the goal posts around for every hot take you have on here.
Reply With Quote
  #116  
Old 07-10-2019, 12:35 AM
mzh mzh is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 3,443
Default

"He's small and doesn't have a lot of raw strength, but his ability to barrel the ball and his plus speed should produce a healthy amount of doubles and maybe 12-15 homers per season." -MLB Pipeline

"He was the best draft-eligible hitter we saw last year, a complete player with few, if any, flaws." -Fangraphs (also gave him a 45 game power FV--for reference, their grade on Adam Engel's game power is 30. We're not talking about Scott Podsednik here.)

"It’s not a metal bat swing, and there’s present 4 raw power here despite his frame. He’ll sting baseballs in the gap, and you’d think all that raw would get into play eventually." -Baseball Prospectus

He's not going to hit for middle of the order power. That's fine. He's not Juan Pierre, either. Let's maybe step off the ledge for a second? He's probably not the second coming of Dustin Pedroia, which is also fine. Let's also consider that we've spent most of the last few years watching Yolmer Sanchez, Leury Garcia, and pre-breakout Tim Anderson up the middle, so it's really beyond me why anybody should be freaking out about a guy who might *only* hit .300 with 30 steals and more walks than strikeouts. He's checking 90% of the boxes so far, I'll start worrying when he's not producing in the Major Leagues.
Reply With Quote
  #117  
Old 07-10-2019, 08:34 AM
blandman blandman is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,024
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
And why aren't we using his AA numbers? He's still playing baseball there and it happens to be against superior pitchers. It would make more sense to use them to increase the overall sample size as the stats we are talking deal in percentages in which sample size matters. But hey, the 25 games in AA are "miniscule", but the 38 games in A ball last year are sufficient.

He's pulling the ball more this year, period. Stop moving the goal posts around for every hot take you have on here.

You took about 30% of his at bats and then weighted it equally with the bulk of his work to create a fictitious number.


It's nice that he's had a couple of better weeks, but as noted above it also comes with an impossible .400 BABIP that he hasn't been close to prior. So yes, it's more aberration than anything.
Reply With Quote
  #118  
Old 07-10-2019, 10:53 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
WSI Personality
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,292
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
You took about 30% of his at bats and then weighted it equally with the bulk of his work to create a fictitious number.


It's nice that he's had a couple of better weeks, but as noted above it also comes with an impossible .400 BABIP that he hasn't been close to prior. So yes, it's more aberration than anything.
Not a fictitious number. Weighted equally would have been about 42%, and weighted correctly is 40.33%. So, that's ~40% of his balls are pulled. Do the math.

He is clearly pulling the ball way more this year based on the numbers you provided.
Reply With Quote
  #119  
Old 07-10-2019, 11:35 AM
Tragg Tragg is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Gonzales LA
Posts: 15,769
Blog Entries: 2
Default

One thing that might give some confidence in Madrigal's future, maybe, is that BP has him as the #12 midseason prospect. Madrigal's game is not what the analytics typically prefer, but yet there he is.
Reply With Quote
  #120  
Old 07-10-2019, 12:37 PM
blandman blandman is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,024
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Not a fictitious number. Weighted equally would have been about 42%, and weighted correctly is 40.33%. So, that's ~40% of his balls are pulled. Do the math.

He is clearly pulling the ball way more this year based on the numbers you provided.
Except he pulled the ball equal to last year for most of the season, and just had a couple of weeks that are skewing the numbers (as his BABIP shows, it's not sustainable). Over the last few weeks where more balls were hit to the left side, other alarming figures increased. 25% of his hit balls where infield flyouts. Which is not normal for him. But that's the danger of small samples. I don't think that's any more indicative of where Madrigal is than his 48% pull rate for the last couple of weeks, or his .400 BABIP in that span.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



Forum Jump




All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:47 PM.




Design by: Michelle

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Site-specific editorial/photos Copyright ©2001 - 2008 White Sox Interactive. All rights reserved.