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  #16  
Old 03-18-2019, 01:13 PM
Harry Chappas Harry Chappas is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
The problem I have with Witt is his hit tool may only be a 45-50. He reminds me a lot of Stephen Drew ( in terms of projection, not scouting going into the draft).

I really would prefer Vaughn unless somehow, someway, Rutschmann falls.
I hadn't seen a projection of 45-50 but did notice that Baseball America said that he still needed to convince some scouts in that department. But his power (for a SS), speed, glove, and arm are supposedly elite.

I'd agree that he is the least 'sure thing' but his ceiling is among the highest in the draft.

I think Rutschman will go #1 overall, the Royals will pick between Witt and Abrams, and the Sox will take Vaughn. Either way, I'll be happy unless they do something weird and reach for someone.
  #17  
Old 03-18-2019, 07:31 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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I wonder if the Orioles would consider a sign-and-trade for Rutschman. They could end up with Witt or Vaughn and a nice second player.
  #18  
Old 03-19-2019, 07:31 AM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
I wonder if the Orioles would consider a sign-and-trade for Rutschman. They could end up with Witt or Vaughn and a nice second player.
I'd seriously question their competence if they made such a trade.

Then again, this is the Orioles...
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  #19  
Old 03-19-2019, 07:39 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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I doubt it would happen - stuff like that just doesn’t in the mlb often
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  #20  
Old 03-23-2019, 11:20 AM
blurry blurry is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry Chappas View Post
I hadn't seen a projection of 45-50 but did notice that Baseball America said that he still needed to convince some scouts in that department. But his power (for a SS), speed, glove, and arm are supposedly elite.

I'd agree that he is the least 'sure thing' but his ceiling is among the highest in the draft.

I think Rutschman will go #1 overall, the Royals will pick between Witt and Abrams, and the Sox will take Vaughn. Either way, I'll be happy unless they do something weird and reach for someone.
You really think they'd go for Abrams at #2? Just about every draft board/ranking/prediction I've seen have Rutschman, Witt Jr, and Vaughn going 1-3 in some combination. After a lot of reading though I'd prefer Vaughn over Witt Jr too.

Holy god if Rutschman somehow fell to us...the guy just looks like another Posey waiting to happen.
  #21  
Old 03-23-2019, 12:53 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by blurry View Post
You really think they'd go for Abrams at #2? Just about every draft board/ranking/prediction I've seen have Rutschman, Witt Jr, and Vaughn going 1-3 in some combination. After a lot of reading though I'd prefer Vaughn over Witt Jr too.

Holy god if Rutschman somehow fell to us...the guy just looks like another Posey waiting to happen.

Wasn't there an issue with Rutschman's shoulder? At 5'11 might Vaughn be better suited for another position?


How do the White Sox not get caught drafting a player, who was good offensively in college, but does not pan put in the majors? I am specifically referring to Gordon Beckham? (Collins looked to be can't miss as a hitter to some but it is taking more time for his offensive side of the game to round out.)
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  #22  
Old 03-23-2019, 03:34 PM
blurry blurry is offline
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Beckham had a big hitch in his swing and was rushed to the majors before it was fixed. His failure was both on him as well as the organization. Thankfully, many (not all) of the people making those decisions don't make them any longer.

I don't see why Vaughn being only 5'11" or 6'0" really matters? Doesn't height only sometimes matter when it comes to pitchers?
  #23  
Old 03-23-2019, 03:40 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blurry View Post
Beckham had a big hitch in his swing and was rushed to the majors before it was fixed. His failure was both on him as well as the organization. Thankfully, many (not all) of the people making those decisions don't make them any longer.

I don't see why Vaughn being only 5'11" or 6'0" really matters? Doesn't height only sometimes matter when it comes to pitchers?
Maybe the thinking is that height - and arm length - is important in the ability of a first baseman to stretch to snag imprecise throws. MLB Pipeline gives him 50 grade arm and field scores, and writes:

Quote:
He's a first baseman only, but should be fine there, with decent hands and a solid arm that allowed him to pitch as a freshman.
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  #24  
Old 04-05-2019, 08:50 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Another college slugger has entered into the top 5 discussion, Hunter Bishop of Arizona State. After disappointing in 2018 he turned it around in a big way in 2019, leading the NCAA in home runs, slugging and OPS.

Quote:
A 6-foot-5, 210-pound lefthanded slugger, Bishop is a rare five-tool talent that makes everything look easy on the baseball field. He also excelled in football while in high school, and while he hit .301-5-25 as a freshman in 2017, his sophomore year didn’t go quite as well, hitting .250. Reports surfaced in fall ball of a player poised for a breakout campaign, and with Bishop’s breakout season statistically he has also soared up draft boards, currently ranked fourth among college players among those eligible for the 2019 draft.
With Rutchman and Vaughn still killing it, it's going to be interesting to see how the first few picks break.
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  #25  
Old 04-05-2019, 08:58 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
Another college slugger has entered into the top 5 discussion, Hunter Bishop of Arizona State. After disappointing in 2018 he turned it around in a big way in 2019, leading the NCAA in home runs, slugging and OPS.

I know no two players are the same, and what happened with one player has no bearing on any other player, BUT that scouting report on Bishop looks as tantalizing as did the scouting report for Joe Borchard.






It really almost always comes down to the hit tool with these five tool players, doesn't it?
  #26  
Old 04-05-2019, 09:54 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
I know no two players are the same, and what happened with one player has no bearing on any other player, BUT that scouting report on Bishop looks as tantalizing as did the scouting report for Joe Borchard.



It really almost always comes down to the hit tool with these five tool players, doesn't it?

A bit, yes. Both are 6'5", Pac-10/12 outfielders. Bishop is not whiffing like Borchard did, plus Borchard did have the advantage of hitting before BBCOR rules.


Agreed, the hit tool is always front and center...
  #27  
Old 04-15-2019, 02:02 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blurry View Post
Beckham had a big hitch in his swing and was rushed to the majors before it was fixed. His failure was both on him as well as the organization. Thankfully, many (not all) of the people making those decisions don't make them any longer.
Doesn't Collins have a hitch in his swing?
And Fulmer had a hitch in his delivery.
  #28  
Old 04-16-2019, 11:12 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
A bit, yes. Both are 6'5", Pac-10/12 outfielders. Bishop is not whiffing like Borchard did, plus Borchard did have the advantage of hitting before BBCOR rules.


Agreed, the hit tool is always front and center...
This isn't talked about enough--the unilateral change from BESR to BBCOR bats in 2012-13 changed everything about college hitting. Stats from before that time simply aren't comparable to after. To a lesser extent, the same can even be said about how the NCAA lowered the seams on their standard baseballs going into the 2016 (I think) season.

For example, Gordon Beckham hit 28 HR as a SS in his draft year playing with BESR. WSI darling Seth Beer, who's still assigned a power tool of around 70 despite not really being much of a prospect anymore, topped out at 22 HR as a massive lug of a first baseman in his draft year.

We may be scarred by busted draft picks of yesteryear, but using college stats to compare guys like Borchard or Beckham to anybody out there these days isn't really saying much.

So yes, I think it's true that at the end of the day, the hit tool is usually what a prospect lives or dies on. If a guy has trouble making contact in college or the low minors, the odds of them being a factor at the big league level are pretty low unless they can run like Billy Hamilton, hit homers like Joey Gallo, play defense like Adam Engel, or combine just enough of the three to hang around long enough to figure out big league pitching like Javy Baez did.
  #29  
Old 04-25-2019, 01:35 PM
longtimefan longtimefan is offline
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I see Rutschman, Witt Jr. and Vaughn names come up as the 3 top picks but If Rutschman & Vaughn are selected 1-2, I worry about drafting a HS kid with the 3rd pick. I think there are too many risks (vs a college star).
If Rutschman & Vaughn are gone, do you have ideas of who the Sox should target? I see the name of Bishop in a prior post but not sure how he's doing currently. Should the Sox go with Witt even though he probably wouldn't be ready for years from when we hope the Sox are ready to make a significant jump in the standings.
  #30  
Old 04-25-2019, 01:43 PM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Should the Sox go with Witt even though he probably wouldn't be ready for years from when we hope the Sox are ready to make a significant jump in the standings.
Such a player could always be traded for immediate MLB help.
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