BP Sox projection.

[TheOldRoman]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Ignoring the fact that most people are aware that PECOTA Team Projections are more or less a fun exercise in statistical modeling and not to be taken as serious, carved in stone predictions, if you're measuring their accuracy against actual W-L record you've already demonstronstrated your ignorance as to what this projection is actually measuring. Just in case you wonder why nobody ever cares about your ERRRGH STANDARD DEVIATION argument.

So, you're suggesting these are silly projections with no basis in reality, which are just for fun and not to be taken seriously. But on the other hand, it's very relevant and above reproach. Alrighty then.

[LITTLE NELL]

I'm sure they are relevant in the Baseball world but I can't give them much respect in return. How on earth could they project us at 82-80 in 2006 after having gone all the way in 2005 not to mention going 11-1 in the post season.
They can go pound sand with their projections.

[skobabe8]

Originally Posted by LITTLE NELL

How on earth could they project us at 82-80 in 2006 after having gone all the way in 2005 not to mention going 11-1 in the post season.

I couldn't believe that when I saw it.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by TheOldRoman

So, you're suggesting these are silly projections with no basis in reality, which are just for fun and not to be taken seriously. But on the other hand, it's very relevant and above reproach. Alrighty then.

and gets upset when they are dismissed as folly. They haven't even been nearly right about the Sox in years according to what I've heard and read. If they were right every once in awhile I might put some stock in the methodology . Football and Basketball are far easier to project than baseball . The fact the Sox have a pretty good pitching staff suggests to me they will at least be competitive so I say their latest projections are going to be erroneous also.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by mahagga73

Don't get why are so adamant about everyone acknowledging the greatness of BP. You act like you have an interest in it or something. I don't care how many of it's writers get hired by MLB teams. WHO CARES? It's just another rag to me and others.

I don't care if you like them, respect them, think it's pointless mental masturbation, WHATEVER, that's all a personal opinion which I cannot sway one way or the other. But if you're making a declarative statement that BP is simply an irrelevant entity in the baseball world, I will challenge that as simple fiction.

Originally Posted by TheOldRoman

So, you're suggesting these are silly projections with no basis in reality, which are just for fun and not to be taken seriously. But on the other hand, it's very relevant and above reproach. Alrighty then.

Well first off, anyone who understands Stats 101 knows that even good models turn out bad results from time to time.

That said, the PECOTA Team Projections are only a very, very small sample of what BP does day in and day out. Yes, these are more "for fun." Just like how respected newspapers occasionally publish silly stories on April Fool's Day but then remain respected members of the journalism community the other 364 days of the year, PECOTA's Team Projections are more for fun to see how the statistical model is working, but that doesn't take away from the other, more meaningful work they do that amounts to the vast majority of the work they contribute.

[asindc]

Originally Posted by doublem23

BP is extremely relevant in the baseball world. People are free to believe or deny that as much as they'd like, but there's a reason that many BP writers go on to be hired by MLB clubs, other baseball syndicates, or other high profile statistic-driven jobs. I mean, the PECOTA projections here are the brainchild of Nate Silver whose arguably one of the most well respected statisticians in the world at present. I know it's fun to think of these guys as nerds you remember in high school sitting in their parent's basement, splitting time writing numerical fantasies about baseball and watching porn, but the reality is they're deeply intellectual people with a very, very sound understanding of the game and what they're trying to measure and evaluate. If there is a problem with it, it's that too many people who don't fully understand their work put waaaaaay too much stock into certain numbers at times (and subsequently miss the forest for the trees). But that doesn't really change their relevance in the baseball world. There's a reason why everyone looks at BP projections and few others.

I'll grant you everything you said about BP and PECOTA projections, but my main objection to them with regard to the Sox is that while realizing that their PECOTA model consistently misses the mark in projecting the Sox' performance, they don't seem to be able (or willing) to adjust accordingly. I think they know what they are doing generally, but I don't think they get how the Sox roster is specifically constructed and managed. At least their consistently-wrong Sox projections indicate such.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by TheOldRoman

The Sox offense was better than the vaunted Tigers' offense last year. And that was with Viciedo in his first full season and with a complete black hole at 3B, even after Youkilis was acquired. But of course, nobody on the Sox will improve at all, all their vets will hit massive cliffs, Sale will totally get injured cuz he's skinny, Peavy's arm is likely to fall off just because he once had a surgery or something, and Danks might never throw a baseball again because I said so. Meanwhile, Torii Hunter will repeat the career season he had at age 36, Victor Martinez will come back from major surgery just as good as before, and rampant obesity will somehow propel the middle of Detroit's lineup to hit even better than last year.

There is a line from The Usual Suspects, "the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist." In that same vein, the most impressive thing BP ever did was convince people it was relevant.

Come now. It isnt' so much that any individual pitcher on our staff has injury concerns as it is that all of them do and there's no one waiting to step in effectively. At the same time, the pitching is the ONLY strength on the team.

Victor Martinez has been preparing to return for more than a year. The Tigers were smart and didn't rush him. In the meantime, Danks had a procedure in the offseason and is rushing to be ready for opening day. If you can't see the difference there, there's no helping you.

Originally Posted by dickallen15

Considering the Sox were 4th in the AL in runs scored last season, I think they even scored more runs than the Tigers, with Konerko banged up most of it, and even with Youkilis, about a .600 OPS out of 3B overall, Ramirez pretty ineffective, it's not unreasonable to think the offense should be enough if Viciedo, Beckham or Flowers improves.

From the article, PECOTA has shortchanged the Sox an average of about 7 wins per season. They were correct once, in 2007. If you ever get the BP yearly, they even admit they always are a little light on their White Sox win total projections. Chances are they will be light again.

The Sox were 4th in runs scored mainly because:

1. Konerko and Dunn had tremendous first halfs. Injury and reality set in.
2. Rios had a tremendous year, but seems to always follow that up with a terrible year. Betting on him to not hit .240 next year is a risky proposition, at best. He's been just as horrible as good two of the last four years.
3. AJ. Yeah, he wouldn't bring that same production again. But we've replaced our best offensive season last year with a guy that's going to be an offensive black hole.

Originally Posted by voodoochile

No, it's more that when you factor in their standard deviation once you get to 95% accuracy, it really doesn't tell you much.

Also the pitching staff is going to be better than it was last year, IMO. I would lay odds this team will be at or above .500 again.

If no one on the staff gets hurt I think we'll get to .500 too.

[kittle42]

The annual slop debate here.

I'll toss in my annual statement - if BP picked the Sox to win the division every year for the past 20 years, regardless of how ridiculously wrong they would be, at least several of the usual group of posters who dismiss their projections would think they were the greatest thing since sliced bread.

I feel this is evidenced by the immediate "no respect" attitude. It is far from a question of respect. In fact, respect has basically nothing to do with it.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by mahagga73

and gets upset when they are dismissed as folly. They haven't even been nearly right about the Sox in years according to what I've heard and read. If they were right every once in awhile I might put some stock in the methodology . Football and Basketball are far easier to project than baseball . The fact the Sox have a pretty good pitching staff suggests to e they will at least be competitive so I say their latest projections are going to be erroneous also.

Again, nobody, myself included, cares what you PERSONALLY think about their work. If you think NUMBERS R 4 NERDZ N VIRGINS or that they suck at their job, that's fine, that's a personal opinion that I cannot sway. I am only challenging the notion that BP isn't a relevant entity, which is, again, complete bull****.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by doublem23

I don't care if you like them, respect them, think it's pointless mental masturbation, WHATEVER, that's all a personal opinion which I cannot sway one way or the other. But if you're making a declarative statement that BP is simply an irrelevant entity in the baseball world, I will challenge that as simple fiction.



Well first off, anyone who understands Stats 101 knows that even good models turn out bad results from time to time.

That said, the PECOTA Team Projections are only a very, very small sample of what BP does day in and day out. Yes, these are more "for fun." Just like how respected newspapers occasionally publish silly stories on April Fool's Day but then remain respected members of the journalism community the other 364 days of the year, PECOTA's Team Projections are more for fun to see how the statistical model is working, but that doesn't take away from the other, more meaningful work they do that amounts to the vast majority of the work they contribute.

I don't doubt it's relevant to the baseball establishment just that baseball won loss projections are like drawing numbers out of a hat. No amount of number crunching is going to make it any more accurate.

[asindc]

Originally Posted by kittle42

The annual slop debate here.

I'll toss in my annual statement - if BP picked the Sox to win the division every year for the past 20 years, regardless of how ridiculously wrong they would be, at least several of the usual group of posters who dismiss their projections would think they were the greatest thing since sliced bread.

I feel this is evidenced by the immediate "no respect" attitude. It is far from a question of respect. In fact, respect has basically nothing to do with it.

I agree that respect has nothing to do with it, but aside from such curious remarks from a few, I think almost all those who criticize BP here do so with the understanding that it is nothing personal. On the contrary, I think most realize that being consistently wrong suggests at least a stubborness about their methodology that has nothing to do with who they think will actually win the AL Central.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Again, nobody, myself included, cares what you PERSONALLY think about their work. If you think NUMBERS R 4 NERDZ N VIRGINS or that they suck at their job, that's fine, that's a personal opinion that I cannot sway. I am only challenging the notion that BP isn't a relevant entity, which is, again, complete bull****.

you got it wrong buddy, nobody cares what you think or BP projections. Read the other posts . I never said numbers are for nerds or whatever, you need to learn how to read or something because I already said I am a sabermetrics fan. You sound like you have a dog in the fight or something.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by kittle42

The annual slop debate here.

I'll toss in my annual statement - if BP picked the Sox to win the division every year for the past 20 years, regardless of how ridiculously wrong they would be, at least several of the usual group of posters who dismiss their projections would think they were the greatest thing since sliced bread.

I feel this is evidenced by the immediate "no respect" attitude. It is far from a question of respect. In fact, respect has basically nothing to do with it.

Yeah, it's the chip on the shoulder mentality. It worked for the 2005 sox, but that was a really good team. The notion that any projection that doesn't have us outright in the thick of things (despite reality) is an affront....is kind of embarrassing, IMO.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by mahagga73

I don't doubt it's relevant to the baseball establishment just that baseball won loss projections are like drawing numbers out of a hat. No amount of number crunching is going to make it any more accurate.

Right, which is why it's frustrating seeing people slam their body of work as a whole over something we know is done more for the fun of it than the serious nature of it's work.

Originally Posted by asindc

I agree that respect has nothing to do with it, but aside from such curious remarks from a few, I think almost all those who criticize BP here do so with the understanding that it is nothing personal. On the contrary, I think most realize that being consistently wrong suggests at least a stubborness about their methodology that has nothing to do with who they think will actually win the AL Central.

Well, part of that is because PECOTA projects into Pythagorean W-L so while they have consistently undersold the Sox actual record, the Sox have also consistently performed better than their Pythagorean W-L and the gap there, most people know is the kind of things that are almost impossible to quantify.

[Lip Man 1]

They've been wrong so often in the past (and not by just a game or two but by a relative lot) that I suspect they'll be wrong by a lot again this year.

Not losing any sleep over this anymore.

Let the 'debate' continue on this thread. Am waiting to see Daver chime in.

Lip