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  #31  
Old 09-30-2018, 08:44 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
a pitching staff that was advertised as being very close to being playoff contender potential
C'mon. Who thought the pitching staff was going to be playoff-contender-good in 2018? Nobody.
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  #32  
Old 09-30-2018, 09:13 PM
wxkid23 wxkid23 is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
C'mon. Who thought the pitching staff was going to be playoff-contender-good in 2018? Nobody.
Before Kopech, people were starting to think that it might be playoff worthy next season. I don't think anyone was thinking 2018?
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  #33  
Old 09-30-2018, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
One was injured this year, one seems to have injury issues perennially and the other just has not shown the type of improvement expected.


I am not counting on any of those three.
Right, but you're looking at it with hindsight and it's understandable you feel that way now. That's my point. I'm saying that it seems a dubious claim that fans should not have been "counting on" these pitchers to be a major part of the team in 2021 and beyond before this season started or at least in August when they all seemed to be humming at the same time.
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  #34  
Old 09-30-2018, 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
C'mon. Who thought the pitching staff was going to be playoff-contender-good in 2018? Nobody.
Honestly not sure why I have to type this next sentence. I am clearly talking about 2019 and beyond, but IF they all had shown solid development this year (as expected) they would have been close to playoff potential caliber in 2019 and beyond.
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  #35  
Old 09-30-2018, 10:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
With the way pitching prospects “burn out,” we very well may end up in a situation where only one of those three really “pans out” and ends up providing results that match the potential.

Like most other teams who build through the farm, we will need at least one lesser-known minor leaguer to greatly exceed expectations and hold down a big-league rotation spot.

Reynaldo Lopez, plus at least one from the Kopech/Rodon/Giolito/Fulmer group who have seen their service time clocks already start, plus at least one from the Cease/Dunning/Hansen group who are next in line, plus at least one “out of nowhere” prospect from among the likes of Adams/Stephens/Guerrero/Medeiros/Clarkin/Covey, would give the team four dependable starters. All it would take after that would be one more of those elite prospects in the first two groups to also “pan out.”

If any of those waves of prospects come up completely empty, then the hard-won payroll flexibility comes into play. A revamped farm system that is well-stocked at all levels can easily bring back a dependable starter in a trade, or the team can finally back up their big talk and spend on top-tier talent.
Yes, pitching prospects burn out but when 3/4 of the guys Sox fans were looking at with anticipation all finish the year on down notes or injured, I think you'd be more understanding of WHY some fans are concerned.

Your analysis CANNOT make this better, PERIOD!

It's time to put down the computer and realize fans have a reason to be concerned, because even IF you are 100% correct and there's lots of depth, we're still a LOT closer today to having run through the first level of that depth with poor results than we were before the season started or even as recently as August.

How can you so casually dismiss that simple fact?
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  #36  
Old 09-30-2018, 10:09 PM
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Originally Posted by wxkid23 View Post
Before Kopech, people were starting to think that it might be playoff worthy next season. I don't think anyone was thinking 2018?
THANK YOU! Glad to see some one gets my point.
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  #37  
Old 09-30-2018, 11:22 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile
How can you so casually dismiss that simple fact?
Because it is still very early in this process. Giolito has made only 43 career starts. Fulmer (I am not ready to officially give up on him yet, although I do not fault anyone who is) has made only 13 career starts. I want to see more before I write them off completely.

As for the injuries to Rodon and Kopech, those are completely out of anyone’s control, so worrying about them does absolutely no good.
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  #38  
Old 10-01-2018, 12:21 AM
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Because it is still very early in this process. Giolito has made only 43 career starts. Fulmer (I am not ready to officially give up on him yet, although I do not fault anyone who is) has made only 13 career starts. I want to see more before I write them off completely.

As for the injuries to Rodon and Kopech, those are completely out of anyone’s control, so worrying about them does absolutely no good.
Okay, fine, I even agree with you that it's early in the process, but to casually dismiss and belittle other fans' angst over these issues strikes me as over the top. No one's asking you to worry and yes the injuries are out of our control, but that doesn't change the fact that a boatload of the first line of top end pitching talent is having issues.

It's one thing to say, "I think we'll be fine in the long run anyway" and another to say, "you people just don't get it, things are completely fine."

They aren't. Hopefully they will be, but if you honestly are sitting there and telling me you feel as good about the pitching staff as you did prior to this year and even as recently as 2 months ago, I don't believe you.

I am completely and totally all in on the rebuild (not like we've got a choice anyway, right?), but things are NOT great at the moment compared to how they were looking in August. Yes, things still should be okay and hopefully will be okay, but we're past the point of saying "everything is fine", and I have NO idea why that's so hard for you to admit.
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  #39  
Old 10-01-2018, 07:43 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile
They aren't. Hopefully they will be, but if you honestly are sitting there and telling me you feel as good about the pitching staff as you did prior to this year and even as recently as 2 months ago, I don't believe you.
I actually have an answer for this that may help explain the whole thing. I never felt that September of last year or the second half of this year represented a permanent milestone that was passed by these pitchers. I never felt as good as you felt about what we were seeing back then, so the flip-side is that I don’t feel as bad as you feel about what we are seeing now.

Last edited by Mohoney; 10-01-2018 at 07:58 AM.
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  #40  
Old 10-01-2018, 08:23 AM
BRDSR BRDSR is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Rodon, Lopez, Giolito and Covey each had some dominant starts against good teams. Consistency is almost always a problem with young pitchers. It will come. (Rodon is older but has been set back by injuries.)

Kopech and Dunning pitched great and their prognosis for full recovery is excellent, if delayed.

Cease took a great leap forward and could be in Chicago next summer.

The next tier of pitchers saw several step up, including Lambert and Flores. There is a ton of depth.
Covey is nowhere near a 5th starter on a contending team. His 2-3 good starts in the June timeframe do not an MLB starter make. Giolito had some dominant starts against good teams like a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile or a broken clock is right twice a day.

Depth is thin at catcher and everywhere in the infield but 1B, and that's only because someone with a decent bat but not much of a glove will surely emerge as a 1B candidate.

The rebuild hasn't failed and there are still plenty of reasons for optimism. But the rebuild is in worse shape now than it was on April 1st, and it's in worse shape now than it was on July 1st. That's not good.

Edit: The x-factor that's getting less discussion than it might deserve is the options the Sox will have in free agency in the 2020-22 time frame. I think I read somewhere that they currently have something like three dollars committed in 2020. There should be a TON of money to spend when the time is right.

Last edited by BRDSR; 10-01-2018 at 08:35 AM.
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  #41  
Old 10-01-2018, 10:51 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by BRDSR View Post
Covey is nowhere near a 5th starter on a contending team. His 2-3 good starts in the June timeframe do not an MLB starter make. Giolito had some dominant starts against good teams like a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile or a broken clock is right twice a day.

Depth is thin at catcher and everywhere in the infield but 1B, and that's only because someone with a decent bat but not much of a glove will surely emerge as a 1B candidate.

The rebuild hasn't failed and there are still plenty of reasons for optimism. But the rebuild is in worse shape now than it was on April 1st, and it's in worse shape now than it was on July 1st. That's not good.

Edit: The x-factor that's getting less discussion than it might deserve is the options the Sox will have in free agency in the 2020-22 time frame. I think I read somewhere that they currently have something like three dollars committed in 2020. There should be a TON of money to spend when the time is right.
Is JR going to pay for that expense with a $3 bill?

The Sox definitely have loads of payroll flexibility. The league average payroll is now around $140M and the Sox payroll this just-concluded season was $71M (with $10M of that for James Shields). This is what Cots shows as our payroll commitments in the next few years:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...nYgBeI/pubhtml
http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com...ago-white-sox/
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