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  #91  
Old 12-14-2019, 06:02 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
On velocity - http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.p...ate=12/14/2019


His fastball is 91 MPH. He's fluctuating within that the last four years. But it's down 2 ticks from when he was good. That's reason number one he's not good anymore.


On teaching - I'm all for paying someone to teach our kids to pitch. If you don't think he's the guy, maybe Coop will step down.
Thank you for posting the same link I did weeks ago so I can repeat myself. His peak is down ~2 MPH, but as you can plainly see, his average fastball is ~1 MPH lower (less actually in all but two) than his prime. Not significant numbers as he’s never been a power pitcher.
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  #92  
Old 12-14-2019, 06:10 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
Thank you for posting the same link I did weeks ago so I can repeat myself. His peak is down ~2 MPH, but as you can plainly see, his average fastball is ~1 MPH lower (less actually in all but two) than his prime. Not significant numbers as he’s never been a power pitcher.

If it's not significant, then explain the difference in FIP and XFIP prior to 2016 and now? Because it seems that lack of velocity is the key ingredient from him being an ace and him being a back end pitcher.

I'm open to any evidence based analysis that points to another reason.
  #93  
Old 12-14-2019, 08:03 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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I'm unsure where to post about Mazara anymore, so I'll put it here.


MLB tonight did an analysis of the move and one of the moderators really liked the move for us. Said Mazara's largest problem was movement which was inconsistent and he fixed that in the second half last year. Expects him to improve this year. Here's hoping.
Even though I hated this trade, I've been trying hard to understand why the Sox made it, and I do understand it now.

Mazara was in the majors very young, which is an excellent indicator of future success. He made a good first impression on them. He's still young, so there is still a lot of potential upside there, even if present-day Mazara appears to have plateaued. Plus they only gave up Steele Walker, who has less potential upside. They opted for the cheap gamble instead of spending a ton on Ozuna, or Castellanos. I guess they figure they will need that money for pitching.

I've also thought about why I hate the trade. That's easy. A contending team needs a better player than 2016-2019 Mazara in right. The Sox have the ability to spend a ton of additional money. They should be spending that money to lock in a player who is substantially better than Mazara, instead of gambling on upside and most probably having to revisit the right field problem soon.
  #94  
Old 12-14-2019, 08:05 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
On velocity - http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.p...ate=12/14/2019


His fastball is 91 MPH. He's fluctuating within that the last four years. But it's down 2 ticks from when he was good. That's reason number one he's not good anymore.


On teaching - I'm all for paying someone to teach our kids to pitch. If you don't think he's the guy, maybe Coop will step down.
Right, a fastball is everything.
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  #95  
Old 12-14-2019, 08:20 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Right, a fastball is everything.

You got something to bring to the discussion? Because the advanced stats and the drop in velocity are both pointing to regression. Is there something that I am missing that you'd like to address?
  #96  
Old 12-14-2019, 08:29 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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You got something to bring to the discussion? Because the advanced stats and the drop in velocity are both pointing to regression. Is there something that I am missing that you'd like to address?
Yes; the careers of Greg Maddux and Frank Tanana (post fireball). Or the Yankees strategy of using more breaking balls and change of speeds. That worked pretty well for them the last two years.

Last edited by Grzegorz; 12-14-2019 at 08:58 PM.
  #97  
Old 12-14-2019, 08:48 PM
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DumpJerry DumpJerry is offline
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That's not a metric that gives you any information on the quality of pitcher he is. Jaime Navarro threw 209 innings for us in '97, and not one person here is going to mistake his 5.79 ERA that year as a "wonderful" addition to anything but a trash heap.
The NL does not have a DH, huge difference when comparing across league lines. A high inning count in the NL is much more impressive than in the AL.
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  #98  
Old 12-14-2019, 10:01 PM
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Originally Posted by DumpJerry View Post
The NL does not have a DH, huge difference when comparing across league lines. A high inning count in the NL is much more impressive than in the AL.
This.

Subtracting a 2.0 IP, 1 ER performance that he left after being hit with a line drive, Bumgarner failed to go at least 5 IP in only 1 of his 33 other starts. He went at least 6 IP in 26 of them.

As far as the “back end production” comment that Munch keeps making, it simply is not true. He gave up 3 ER or fewer in 22 of his 33 starts, and he gave up 5 ER or more in only 6 of them. He flirted with a sub-1.000 WHIP after the All Star break.

Simply put, that is not “back end production.”
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  #99  
Old 12-15-2019, 12:21 AM
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
If it's not significant, then explain the difference in FIP and XFIP prior to 2016 and now? Because it seems that lack of velocity is the key ingredient from him being an ace and him being a back end pitcher.

I'm open to any evidence based analysis that points to another reason.
Changed mechanics after a dirt bike crash. This is what I’ve been told, anyway. I’ve always thought he was hurt worse than was reported, and the fact remains that he hasn’t been the same since.
  #100  
Old 12-15-2019, 08:24 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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There are Tweets suggesting that the Sox and Angels are the two favorites/finalists to land Dallas Keuchel.
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  #101  
Old 12-15-2019, 10:21 AM
JermaineDye05 JermaineDye05 is offline
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There are Tweets suggesting that the Sox and Angels are the two favorites/finalists to land Dallas Keuchel.
The Angels are gonna be pretty good next season.
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  #102  
Old 12-15-2019, 10:28 AM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by JermaineDye05 View Post
The Angels are gonna be pretty good next season.
Yeah, if the Sox and Angels have made equal offers to Keuchel, he's going there.
  #103  
Old 12-15-2019, 10:57 AM
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The Angels are gonna be pretty good next season.
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Yeah, if the Sox and Angels have made equal offers to Keuchel, he's going there.
What makes the Angels good all of a sudden?
  #104  
Old 12-15-2019, 11:11 AM
SoxSpeed22 SoxSpeed22 is offline
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It would be a monumental failure to have a guy like Mike Trout there, and not even sniff the playoffs, and with Ohtani expected to be healthy, them landing Anthony Rendon to go with Andrelton Simmons, the Angels have got a lineup. Starting pitching is still a huge need for them.
Hopefully Rick can figure out a way to snag Kuechel, as he would be very good for the team going forward.
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  #105  
Old 12-15-2019, 11:29 AM
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It would be a monumental failure to have a guy like Mike Trout there, and not even sniff the playoffs, and with Ohtani expected to be healthy, them landing Anthony Rendon to go with Andrelton Simmons, the Angels have got a lineup. Starting pitching is still a huge need for them.
Hopefully Rick can figure out a way to snag Kuechel, as he would be very good for the team going forward.
Simmons is a real leathersmith, but he’d be fighting off a rookie for a starting job this year on the Sox. I see a top heavy lineup and little pitching. If Dallas goes there, it’s because he wants to live and play in SoCal like seemingly every other player.
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