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  #16  
Old 04-23-2018, 09:57 PM
soxfanreggie soxfanreggie is offline
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Things like this keep in perspective that “Rome wasn’t built in a day.” Some picks will turn out great, some will not. Some will be considered busts and others gambles that paid off. I have been generally happy with the talent we have acquired the past couple years and am excited to see how many of them make a ML impact the next two seasons.
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  #17  
Old 04-23-2018, 11:55 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Sure it can be done.
It can also turn out like the Royals and Pirates...take 20 years to win, and the winning lasts for 3.

Is this FO like the Astros, or is it like the Royals and Pirates?
Based on the drafting, it isn't like the Astros......
Very good point. Based on history since say 1999, it's not great that's for sure especially with very high draft picks.

Time will tell though.
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  #18  
Old 04-24-2018, 08:53 AM
I_Liked_Manuel I_Liked_Manuel is offline
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Call me skeptical but I don't see why having a bad major league team indicates that you'll in the future have a good major league team or why having young talent struggle in the majors indicates that those young players will eventually produce. From my perspective this 'rebuild' (and I'm being kind in using that term since they're 'rebuilding' from a 90 loss baseline) has us watching 2 middle infielders develop, and I don't have a lot of confidence that they're both going to make it.
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  #19  
Old 04-24-2018, 09:10 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Liked_Manuel View Post
Call me skeptical but I don't see why having a bad major league team indicates that you'll in the future have a good major league team or why having young talent struggle in the majors indicates that those young players will eventually produce. From my perspective this 'rebuild' (and I'm being kind in using that term since they're 'rebuilding' from a 90 loss baseline) has us watching 2 middle infielders develop, and I don't have a lot of confidence that they're both going to make it.
Well if they both are no better than they are today then they're fine or well above average for MLB players at their position already.

Moncada is currently 9th in the majors for 2B OPS and is on pace for ~ a 5 WAR season.

Anderson is currently akso 9th in the majors for SS OPS and is on pace for ~2.5 season.
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  #20  
Old 04-24-2018, 09:45 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Sure it can be done.
It can also turn out like the Royals and Pirates...take 20 years to win, and the winning lasts for 3.
Is this FO like the Astros, or is it like the Royals and Pirates?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lip Man 1 View Post
Very good point. Based on history since say 1999, it's not great that's for sure especially with very high draft picks.

Time will tell though.
There's no comparison here, the rules are very, very different now.

International slotting, draft spending limits, luxury taxes.....it's much more likely that a team can rebuild as opposed to 10, 20, 30 years ago.
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  #21  
Old 04-24-2018, 10:48 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Sure it can be done.
It can also turn out like the Royals and Pirates...take 20 years to win, and the winning lasts for 3.
Is this FO like the Astros, or is it like the Royals and Pirates?
Based on the drafting, it isn't like the Astros......
I wouldn't consider the Royals sucking for 20 years as part of some grand rebuilding plan. Most of that time, they just simply sucked and couldn't keep any good players they did develope (Dye, Damon, Beltran) once they hit free agency. I want to say they officially hit the reset button a few years before they won the pennant and that's when they built up a great farm system that paid dividends. The Sox, while not in the same category as the Yanks, Red Sox, and Cubs, should at least be able to hold on to much of their current core talent once they become FA eligible.

Your concerns on the FO drafting are legitimate. The team's track record up through 2012 was abysmal (with a few exceptions such as Sale). IMO, the jury is still out on the post 2012 draft picks (starting with Rodon at 3rd overall in 2013). But things did change then with the new CBA in place. They're still a question mark, but I'm not writing off Rodon (health, not talent), Anderson, Fulmer and the other picks still in the minors just yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
There's no comparison here, the rules are very, very different now.

International slotting, draft spending limits, luxury taxes.....it's much more likely that a team can rebuild as opposed to 10, 20, 30 years ago.
Agreed. The spending on drafting players and signing international talent isn't comparable to how things were under the previous CBA.

One question I have: Have the Sox invested any more in scouting and player development than they did in the past? During the low point of this farm system, my understanding was that the issue wasn't just their unwillingness to pay a price for amateur talent, but that they weren't putting a lot of money into scouting. I haven't heard one way or the other if that has changed.
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  #22  
Old 04-24-2018, 11:00 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Well if they both are no better than they are today then they're fine or well above average for MLB players at their position already.

Moncada is currently 9th in the majors for 2B OPS and is on pace for ~ a 5 WAR season.

Anderson is currently akso 9th in the majors for SS OPS and is on pace for ~2.5 season.
Some nice progress by Anderson so far this season- he's on track to draw 3X the walks he drew last season (~55 projected for this year, consistent with his pattern of adding this to his game "last" at any level he's played), and he's on pace for 64 SBs this season.
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Players that are an important part of the rebuild:
Anderson, Giolito, Lopez, Moncada
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  #23  
Old 04-24-2018, 11:32 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
One question I have: Have the Sox invested any more in scouting and player development than they did in the past? During the low point of this farm system, my understanding was that the issue wasn't just their unwillingness to pay a price for amateur talent, but that they weren't putting a lot of money into scouting. I haven't heard one way or the other if that has changed.
They have put more money into scouting, yes. They had a poor excuse for an analytics department and so that needed to be brought up to an acceptable level. But, in terms of their annual spending I'm not sure if there is an easy way to see where they stand.
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  #24  
Old 04-24-2018, 12:08 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
There's no comparison here, the rules are very, very different now.

International slotting, draft spending limits, luxury taxes.....it's much more likely that a team can rebuild as opposed to 10, 20, 30 years ago.
True but as JB (I think) posted in another thread last week, you look at the progress on the last six Sox #1 picks, some of whom were selected under the new rules and it makes you stop and think.

He mentioned Rodon, Burger, Burdi, Fulmer, Anderson and Collins.
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  #25  
Old 04-24-2018, 12:10 PM
Harry Chappas Harry Chappas is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Liked_Manuel View Post
Call me skeptical but I don't see why having a bad major league team indicates that you'll in the future have a good major league team or why having young talent struggle in the majors indicates that those young players will eventually produce. From my perspective this 'rebuild' (and I'm being kind in using that term since they're 'rebuilding' from a 90 loss baseline) has us watching 2 middle infielders develop, and I don't have a lot of confidence that they're both going to make it.
No one is saying that having a bad, current, team means you'll have a good, future, team. They're showing that teams were able to rebuild in fairly short order through a combination of drafting, free agency, and acquiring prospects via trade.

You need to look beyond Anderson and Moncada (who, btw, are pretty good). There is a ton of young talent throughout their farm system that aren't struggling at all. Heck, there's other young talent already on the team (Sanchez is just 26) you could pay attention to.
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  #26  
Old 04-24-2018, 01:45 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lip Man 1 View Post
True but as JB (I think) posted in another thread last week, you look at the progress on the last six Sox #1 picks, some of whom were selected under the new rules and it makes you stop and think.

He mentioned Rodon, Burger, Burdi, Fulmer, Anderson and Collins.
Those 6 picks actually are pretty good from a historical context.

It's pretty much a slam dunk that the Sox would have never signed Rodon if it hadn't been for the new rules. When healthy he's a #1 or #2 starter. No one could fault them for taking him.

When you look at the value of picks over the years, guys taken around the area where Fulmer, Collins and Burger were taken average about 10 WAR for a career, Anderson about 9 and Burdi around 6. I would wager that Anderson will easily eclipse that for a career, Fulmer and Collins probably not. The other 2 have good upsides but have been held back due to injuries.

As mentioned before, it's much better than pre-2012 when it was Sale, Gonzalez and 14 years of guys who were mostly replacement level players or career minor leaguers. The Astros were just about as abysmal from 1998 to 2010. It just takes a few high picks to turn around a franchise.
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  #27  
Old 04-24-2018, 02:04 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Liked_Manuel View Post
Call me skeptical but I don't see why having a bad major league team indicates that you'll in the future have a good major league team or why having young talent struggle in the majors indicates that those young players will eventually produce. From my perspective this 'rebuild' (and I'm being kind in using that term since they're 'rebuilding' from a 90 loss baseline) has us watching 2 middle infielders develop, and I don't have a lot of confidence that they're both going to make it.
It isn't that having a bad team now means we'll have a good team later. We have a bad team now because 1) we traded our top assets for a ton of talent and 2) this team was pretty mediocre before embarking on this rebuild anyway. The trades weren't 1 for 1 either. In trading a few top players we got a huge influx of talent. It was more like 2 or 3 to 1.

It's also not only about watching Moncada and Anderson develop. To look at only these two players is merely scratching the surface of the young talent that's in our organization now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lip Man 1 View Post
True but as JB (I think) posted in another thread last week, you look at the progress on the last six Sox #1 picks, some of whom were selected under the new rules and it makes you stop and think.

He mentioned Rodon, Burger, Burdi, Fulmer, Anderson and Collins.
Was Anderson really that bad of a pick? It's not like he's a total bust and I think he's still got time to improve. If you look at the 2013 first round picks, there's a whole lot of nothing between Bryant at #2 and Judge at #32. The Sox took Anderson at #17.

Burdi is recovering from TJS. There's a high recovery rate from that type of surgery, so no reason to write him off or to declare him a bad pick. I'm not writing off Burger yet, either.

Rodon? Well, we'll all find out soon enough how he bounces back.

The Fulmer pick doesn't look that great right now, especially considering the guys across town took Happ in the very next pick. But, let's see how Fulmer does this year. I agree that Collins does look alarmingly bad in the minors right now.
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  #28  
Old 04-24-2018, 03:08 PM
Huisj Huisj is offline
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
It isn't that having a bad team now means we'll have a good team later. We have a bad team now because 1) we traded our top assets for a ton of talent and 2) this team was pretty mediocre before embarking on this rebuild anyway. The trades weren't 1 for 1 either. In trading a few top players we got a huge influx of talent. It was more like 2 or 3 to 1.

It's also not only about watching Moncada and Anderson develop. To look at only these two players is merely scratching the surface of the young talent that's in our organization now.



Was Anderson really that bad of a pick? It's not like he's a total bust and I think he's still got time to improve. If you look at the 2013 first round picks, there's a whole lot of nothing between Bryant at #2 and Judge at #32. The Sox took Anderson at #17.

Burdi is recovering from TJS. There's a high recovery rate from that type of surgery, so no reason to write him off or to declare him a bad pick. I'm not writing off Burger yet, either.

Rodon? Well, we'll all find out soon enough how he bounces back.

The Fulmer pick doesn't look that great right now, especially considering the guys across town took Happ in the very next pick. But, let's see how Fulmer does this year. I agree that Collins does look alarmingly bad in the minors right now.
You mean that Happ guy who has struck out 25 times in his 58 plate appearances this year.
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  #29  
Old 04-24-2018, 03:16 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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You mean that Happ guy who has struck out 25 times in his 58 plate appearances this year.
True. In the end, we might be thrilled that the Sox picked Fulmer over Happ after all. Both of these guys are still a work in progress.
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  #30  
Old 04-24-2018, 05:18 PM
russ99 russ99 is offline
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Originally Posted by TomC727 View Post
I mentioned this in a previous post and I’ll say it again. What the Astros have done is even more impressive than the north side team and other rebuilt teams is that the Astros missed on the first pick in back to back drafts in 2013 and 2014 (Mark Appel and Brady Aiken).

White Sox fans would be out with pitchforks if this happened to this organization.
Astros made up for that mistake with the Gattis, Giles, Verlander and Cole trades. The real coup was the signing bonus wrangling in 2012 and 2015, even though it blew up in their faces in 2014.
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