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  #166  
Old 08-15-2019, 01:31 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by MeteorsSox4367 View Post
If the Sox have to rely on Madrigal for power, they're in some trouble.

I watched him play on the PAC-12 Network in college at OSU and like what I see in him.

When Madrigal comes up, if he can make solid contact, hit gap-to-gap and play a strong defensive second base - and I expect him to do all three - I'll be a mighty happy Sox fan.
Itís not about relying on a player for power. Itís about relying on a player to provide an overall body of work that is acceptable from a major league starter.

In this environment, for every home run you donít provide, you need to provide 2.22 singles or 1.59 doubles to make up for it in your wOBA. If you can do that, there is no problem. If you canít do that, youíre sacrificing offensive value.

Stolen bases can help make up for the difference, but you need to steal bases at a 73% clip to break even, and you need a pretty high volume to make much of a dent. In this environment, you need to provide 9.68 successful steals to make up for every home run you donít provide. For reference, Mallex Smith leads MLB with 32 stolen bases, and he has been thrown out 7 times. All that running provided only 3.341 in surplus value to his wOBA. An extra 2 dingers would have provided 3.87 in surplus value. If he goes 3/0 or 4/1 in his next attempts, he will make up that difference.

As far as defense, the value we are getting from Yolmer Sanchez is among the best in baseball. He leads the majors in total zone runs with 11. He is tied for 3rd in defensive runs saved with 7, but adds another 3 runs to that total with double plays. He should be a finalist for 2B Gold Glove this year, if not actually win the award.
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  #167  
Old 08-15-2019, 04:44 PM
MeteorsSox4367 MeteorsSox4367 is offline
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I respect all the advanced metrics - even if I don't know how the hell to compute them or what they mean as acronyms.

My viewpoint is from that of someone who's watched and loved baseball for 40-plus years of his life.

I liked the Sox's choosing Madrigal and I still do. Perhaps it's just blind Sox fan optimism, but I think he's going to be a very good MLB player upon his arrival and not everyone needs to hit 20 HRs a year to be considered successful.

I think Madrigal is going to be damn good and I can't wait to watch him play for my favorite team.

Archaic thoughts, perhaps. But that's where I'm providing my opinion from.
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  #168  
Old 08-15-2019, 05:07 PM
XplodingScorbord XplodingScorbord is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Itís not about relying on a player for power. Itís about relying on a player to provide an overall body of work that is acceptable from a major league starter.

In this environment, for every home run you donít provide, you need to provide 2.22 singles or 1.59 doubles to make up for it in your wOBA. If you can do that, there is no problem. If you canít do that, youíre sacrificing offensive value.

Stolen bases can help make up for the difference, but you need to steal bases at a 73% clip to break even, and you need a pretty high volume to make much of a dent. In this environment, you need to provide 9.68 successful steals to make up for every home run you donít provide. For reference, Mallex Smith leads MLB with 32 stolen bases, and he has been thrown out 7 times. All that running provided only 3.341 in surplus value to his wOBA. An extra 2 dingers would have provided 3.87 in surplus value. If he goes 3/0 or 4/1 in his next attempts, he will make up that difference.

As far as defense, the value we are getting from Yolmer Sanchez is among the best in baseball. He leads the majors in total zone runs with 11. He is tied for 3rd in defensive runs saved with 7, but adds another 3 runs to that total with double plays. He should be a finalist for 2B Gold Glove this year, if not actually win the award.
Good. Then Madrigal can stay in AAA and work on his game another year. Letís see him in May 2021.
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  #169  
Old 08-15-2019, 07:55 PM
Huisj Huisj is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
It’s not about relying on a player for power. It’s about relying on a player to provide an overall body of work that is acceptable from a major league starter.

In this environment, for every home run you don’t provide, you need to provide 2.22 singles or 1.59 doubles to make up for it in your wOBA. If you can do that, there is no problem. If you can’t do that, you’re sacrificing offensive value.

Stolen bases can help make up for the difference, but you need to steal bases at a 73% clip to break even, and you need a pretty high volume to make much of a dent. In this environment, you need to provide 9.68 successful steals to make up for every home run you don’t provide. For reference, Mallex Smith leads MLB with 32 stolen bases, and he has been thrown out 7 times. All that running provided only 3.341 in surplus value to his wOBA. An extra 2 dingers would have provided 3.87 in surplus value. If he goes 3/0 or 4/1 in his next attempts, he will make up that difference.

As far as defense, the value we are getting from Yolmer Sanchez is among the best in baseball. He leads the majors in total zone runs with 11. He is tied for 3rd in defensive runs saved with 7, but adds another 3 runs to that total with double plays. He should be a finalist for 2B Gold Glove this year, if not actually win the award.
But but he doesn’t hit homers so he’s useless too. If he’s just hit 5 more homers he’d have as much offensive value as his whole season of work in the field.
. (Referring to Yolmer)
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  #170  
Old 08-15-2019, 08:34 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Huisj View Post
But but he doesnít hit homers so heís useless too. If heís just hit 5 more homers heíd have as much offensive value as his whole season of work in the field.
. (Referring to Yolmer)
Thatís not exactly inaccurate, though. Thatís the point. Thatís how valuable home runs are.

Out of 17,568 runs scored in MLB, 7,936 have been scored via home runs. Home runs are 3.6% of all plate appearances, but they drive home 45.2% of all runs scored.
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  #171  
Old 08-15-2019, 10:12 PM
I_Liked_Manuel I_Liked_Manuel is offline
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Originally Posted by Huisj View Post
But but he doesnít hit homers so heís useless too. If heís just hit 5 more homers heíd have as much offensive value as his whole season of work in the field.
. (Referring to Yolmer)
It's pointless with the 'advanced' stats crowd. If people could reduce baseball to whatever metric they chose, they'd be betting on it and not pontificating on message boards and blogs about the value of players or teams. It's nauseating to read about what a guy like Madrigal would have to hit at a rate of doubles or HR's to make up for his other play. He might be ready for MLB, he might not, but that's surely not determined by stats in charlotte or Birmingham over the human eye - which I'm sure none of us has seen enough tape on to judge
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  #172  
Old 08-15-2019, 11:35 PM
soxfanreggie soxfanreggie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
It’s not about relying on a player for power. It’s about relying on a player to provide an overall body of work that is acceptable from a major league starter.

In this environment, for every home run you don’t provide, you need to provide 2.22 singles or 1.59 doubles to make up for it in your wOBA. If you can do that, there is no problem. If you can’t do that, you’re sacrificing offensive value.

Stolen bases can help make up for the difference, but you need to steal bases at a 73% clip to break even, and you need a pretty high volume to make much of a dent. In this environment, you need to provide 9.68 successful steals to make up for every home run you don’t provide. For reference, Mallex Smith leads MLB with 32 stolen bases, and he has been thrown out 7 times. All that running provided only 3.341 in surplus value to his wOBA. An extra 2 dingers would have provided 3.87 in surplus value. If he goes 3/0 or 4/1 in his next attempts, he will make up that difference.

As far as defense, the value we are getting from Yolmer Sanchez is among the best in baseball. He leads the majors in total zone runs with 11. He is tied for 3rd in defensive runs saved with 7, but adds another 3 runs to that total with double plays. He should be a finalist for 2B Gold Glove this year, if not actually win the award.
Is this where Hawk talks about TWTW?

As far as Gold Gloves, like All-Star Nods, they don’t always go to the best defender. I wish they did.
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  #173  
Old 08-16-2019, 05:47 AM
harwar harwar is offline
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On all of the winning mlb playoff teams that i've watched over the years, it seems to me that there was always one guy that could hit for high average, by spraying line-drives to all fields, play great defense, and be smart on the base paths . by what i've read, Madrigal seems to be one of these guys, and i think that any successful team needs a guy like that.
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  #174  
Old 08-16-2019, 09:01 AM
Harry Chappas Harry Chappas is offline
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Sometimes power is the last tool that is developed/honed. I don't much care since I believe Madrigal will be just fine even if he maxes out at 8-10 HRs (assuming XBs and SBs). He has a very narrow frame so will never be confused with a fireplug like Altuve but with continued work in the weight room, he could add another 5-10 lbs of muscle and that might add to his XB numbers if not homers.
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  #175  
Old 08-16-2019, 01:49 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by I_Liked_Manuel View Post
It's pointless with the 'advanced' stats crowd. If people could reduce baseball to whatever metric they chose, they'd be betting on it and not pontificating on message boards and blogs about the value of players or teams. It's nauseating to read about what a guy like Madrigal would have to hit at a rate of doubles or HR's to make up for his other play. He might be ready for MLB, he might not, but that's surely not determined by stats in charlotte or Birmingham over the human eye - which I'm sure none of us has seen enough tape on to judge
Except money lines are determined using much of the same information, and they donít pay out ďtrueĒ odds.
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  #176  
Old 08-16-2019, 02:18 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by soxfanreggie View Post
Is this where Hawk talks about TWTW?

As far as Gold Gloves, like All-Star Nods, they donít always go to the best defender. I wish they did.
Youíre right. Gold Gloves are very much hit-and-miss. My point about Yolmer was that we are already getting some of the best 2B defense in the majors, and Madrigal likely would not move the needle in that regard upon being promoted.

Besides that, I donít know why Madrigal being promoted means that Yolmer needs to go. He is still under team control for 2 more years, and he is far superior to guys like Jose Rondon or Ryan Goins.

Next yearís bench should have Yolmer, Leury, Engel, and a LH power bat for 1B/DH on it. Unless they decide to go with a platoon at DH, in which case Engel would be replaced by a RH power bat.

Figure that Abreu, Madrigal (eventually), TA, Moncada, Eloy, Robert (in mid-April), a RF free agent, and McCann are the starters. Yolmer, Leury, Engel, another catcher (I assume itís Collins), and a LH power bat would round out the 13 position players.
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  #177  
Old 08-16-2019, 02:38 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Youíre right. Gold Gloves are very much hit-and-miss. My point about Yolmer was that we are already getting some of the best 2B defense in the majors, and Madrigal likely would not move the needle in that regard upon being promoted.

Besides that, I donít know why Madrigal being promoted means that Yolmer needs to go. He is still under team control for 2 more years, and he is far superior to guys like Jose Rondon or Ryan Goins.

Next yearís bench should have Yolmer, Leury, Engel, and a LH power bat for 1B/DH on it. Unless they decide to go with a platoon at DH, in which case Engel would be replaced by a RH power bat.

Figure that Abreu, Madrigal (eventually), TA, Moncada, Eloy, Robert (in mid-April), a RF free agent, and McCann are the starters. Yolmer, Leury, Engel, another catcher (I assume itís Collins), and a LH power bat would round out the 13 position players.
Agreed on the expected position player roster next year. Only question in my mind is what they end up doing with Collins. Renteria seemed very hesitant about his defense earlier in the year, at either C or 1B.
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  #178  
Old 08-16-2019, 02:43 PM
Mingo Mingo is offline
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There was a recent article in "The Athletic" about Madrigal - with quotes from Luis Robert, Zack Collins and Andrew Vaughn. Madrigal was all the other top prospects - favorite prospect. They respected his commitment to the game - the were amazed by his quick thinking while the ball was in play (AJ type presence of mind) - his ability to put bat on ball - and his amazingly low strike out rate. He was portrayed at the kind of ballplayer - other ballplayers go to for professional advice.

From what I seen and heard he will be a fan favorite, a consistent contributor, a nifty defender. He will likely bring intangibles positives to the team effort.

Yomer is one of my favorite players - he also brings positive intangibles to the club house and top defense in the field. I expect Yomer will become the Utility infielder guy - and get plenty of at bats spelling the other infielders.
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