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  #226  
Old 12-18-2017, 09:10 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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So just to confirm:

We are supposed to ignore Age, Positional Value, Defense and total WAR, and only focus on select offensive statistics and contract length. And if we do that, Abreu is worth much more than Machado?
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  #227  
Old 12-18-2017, 09:12 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Camden Depot (O's fan site) says "Based on what I hear, the most any team has offered has been a single top 100 player and a couple lower tier players" which (he says) could be Alec Hansen, Carson Fulmer, and Jake Burger. And "The above package would likely disappoint folks."

Good luck with that! Hansen should be a top 25 prospect when the new rankings come out. He could end up better than Kopech, and ought to be untouchable. I wouldn't give up Burger, either -- we will need a third baseman once Machado leaves.

I continue to think Avi makes the most sense as a headliner, since the article also laments their corner outfield problems.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2017...chado-and.html
I love Hansen, he won't be top 25. I doubt he breaks top 50. He will sit in the 60-80 range.
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  #228  
Old 12-18-2017, 09:37 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by SI1020 View Post
What I'm getting is if you were drafting a team and had to pick between Machado and Abreu almost everyone would pick Machado. That being said some of us feel that Abreu is being shortchanged by many on this board. Lastly, a few of us an it's getting to be a more precious few every year, do not and will not worship at the altar of WAR. It is not the one size fits all solution to defining the worth of a player.
I just think there is a strawman argument being built.

Abreu is a VERY good hitter, literally no one has said anything different.

The thing is, most 1b are at least GOOD hitters, with more than half the league being capable of 25 homers and an .800 OPS at 1b.

1b provide little defensive value unless you are an elite fielder (Goldschmidt).

Machado plays 3b, where offensive production isn't as aplenty. He is one of the top 2 or 3 defensive 3b in the league, and has 2 gold gloves before he is 26. That is really important, defense is important, especially to young pitchers.

And thats fine if you don't like WAR, you can take almost any metric and see how good Machado is.

And the last thing is, if you get Machado, you don't lose Abreu, you then have an extremely formidable middle of the lineup.

I totttttttaaalllyyyyyy get the idea you don't over pay to rent him and deal a Kopech level player.

I am just more in shock at the idea Abreu is the better/more valuable player. And that is no knock to Abreu.
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  #229  
Old 12-18-2017, 10:41 AM
sullythered sullythered is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
I just think there is a strawman argument being built.

Abreu is a VERY good hitter, literally no one has said anything different.

The thing is, most 1b are at least GOOD hitters, with more than half the league being capable of 25 homers and an .800 OPS at 1b.

1b provide little defensive value unless you are an elite fielder (Goldschmidt).

Machado plays 3b, where offensive production isn't as aplenty. He is one of the top 2 or 3 defensive 3b in the league, and has 2 gold gloves before he is 26. That is really important, defense is important, especially to young pitchers.

And thats fine if you don't like WAR, you can take almost any metric and see how good Machado is.

And the last thing is, if you get Machado, you don't lose Abreu, you then have an extremely formidable middle of the lineup.

I totttttttaaalllyyyyyy get the idea you don't over pay to rent him and deal a Kopech level player.

I am just more in shock at the idea Abreu is the better/more valuable player. And that is no knock to Abreu.
I agree with everybody about Machado being much more valuable than Jose, but everybody has to stop saying "half the first basemen can hit 25 HRs with a. .800 OPS". Im sure that's true, but what does that matter in this argument? Jose averages 33 homers a year, and is way closer to being a .900 OPS guy than an .800 one. Tell me how many 1B are 33 homer, .880 OPS hitters if you want to make a point/comparison.
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Last edited by sullythered; 12-18-2017 at 10:51 AM.
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  #230  
Old 12-18-2017, 11:13 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by sullythered View Post
I agree with everybody about Machado being much more valuable than Jose, but everybody has to stop saying "half the first basemen can hit 25 HRs with a. .800 OPS". Im sure that's true, but what does that matter in this argument? Jose averages 33 homers a year, and is way closer to being a .900 OPS guy than an .800 one. Tell me how many 1B are 33 homer, .880 OPS hitters if you want to make a point/comparison.
That wasn't what I was saying though. What I was saying is, its easier to close the gap at 1b than 3b, and MUCH easier if you think Machado can be an elite SS (which many do).

Its why you don't have 20 teams trying to get Abreu right now, its just not hard to find a good enough 1b. Yes, he is better than all those "good enough guys" but 1b is just a low positional value spot.
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  #231  
Old 12-18-2017, 02:10 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
I love Hansen, he won't be top 25. I doubt he breaks top 50. He will sit in the 60-80 range.
You'll be wrong. He had a monster year, striking out 191 in 141 innings with only 114 hits.

Baseball America:

"Hansen's 191 strikeouts are the most in the minors in a season since Edwar Cabrera's 217 in 2011. It's been a breakout year for the big righthander. Hansen had more strikeouts and nearly as many innings this year in the minors as he had in three seasons at Oklahoma."
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  #232  
Old 12-18-2017, 02:30 PM
central44 central44 is online now
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The whole point is (assuming that Baltimore would even want Abreu, which they don't) that you can have

1. Abreu--a really great hitter even for his position, as well as a phenomenal mentor for the two young Cubans the Sox are counting on to be a major part of their championship core--PLUS a top 50 prospect in 2019 and probably 2020 and beyond

or

2. Neither of those two things in 2019 and probably 2020 because Machado is more than likely to test free agency

Of course Machado is a more valuable player in a vacuum, but nobody in their right mind would take option 2 over option 1, which is sort of the whole point in the first place.
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  #233  
Old 12-18-2017, 02:48 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
You'll be wrong. He had a monster year, striking out 191 in 141 innings with only 114 hits.

Baseball America:

"Hansen's 191 strikeouts are the most in the minors in a season since Edwar Cabrera's 217 in 2011. It's been a breakout year for the big righthander. Hansen had more strikeouts and nearly as many innings this year in the minors as he had in three seasons at Oklahoma."
I hope you are right, but looking at the fluid rankings of mlb pipeline (which I put far less stock in than BA) http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

They have him 92

If I had to guess, he would Rank 56, but like I said, I could see anywhere 50-80.
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  #234  
Old 12-18-2017, 02:50 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by central44 View Post
The whole point is (assuming that Baltimore would even want Abreu, which they don't) that you can have

1. Abreu--a really great hitter even for his position, as well as a phenomenal mentor for the two young Cubans the Sox are counting on to be a major part of their championship core--PLUS a top 50 prospect in 2019 and probably 2020 and beyond

or

2. Neither of those two things in 2019 and probably 2020 because Machado is more than likely to test free agency

Of course Machado is a more valuable player in a vacuum, but nobody in their right mind would take option 2 over option 1, which is sort of the whole point in the first place.
I just have to ask, why do we think getting Machado means we trade Abreu. There is no way we trade for him then deal Abreu.
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  #235  
Old 12-18-2017, 03:07 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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The president of the Cardinals was on the radio today and he said trading three prospects, with 18 total years of control for one year of Machado is not worth it to him.

For what that may be worth to you.
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  #236  
Old 12-18-2017, 03:27 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lip Man 1
The president of the Cardinals was on the radio today and he said trading three prospects, with 18 total years of control for one year of Machado is not worth it to him.

For what that may be worth to you.
They know that they are not one player away from turning that pile of mediocrity into a legitimate contender.
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  #237  
Old 12-18-2017, 03:37 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
I hope you are right, but looking at the fluid rankings of mlb pipeline (which I put far less stock in than BA) http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

They have him 92

If I had to guess, he would Rank 56, but like I said, I could see anywhere 50-80.
They haven't re-ranked since last offseason. They've only moved players up due to graduations.

If they included Hansen in a Machado deal (without getting an extension) I'd want Hahn's head on a pike.
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  #238  
Old 12-18-2017, 04:15 PM
LoveYourSuit LoveYourSuit is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
They haven't re-ranked since last offseason. They've only moved players up due to graduations.

If they included Hansen in a Machado deal (without getting an extension) I'd want Hahn's head on a pike.

If I'd rank the Sox young pitching prospects in order I'd go:

1) Kopech,
2) Hansen
3) Giolito
4) Cease
5) Lopez
6) Dunning
7) Fulmer


I still consider Giolito and Lopez as "propsects" for this list.

#1 and #2 would be untouchable for me for any rental.
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  #239  
Old 12-18-2017, 09:39 PM
cards press box cards press box is offline
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I saw a video clip of Dylan Cease recently. Man, his delivery is very similar to Mike Mussinaís. Thatís encouraging.

Havenít heard much about Machado rumors lately. Hard to know whatís going on there.

I wonder if the Sox are looking at Christian Yelich. He would be a nice add to this group of Sox.
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  #240  
Old 12-18-2017, 09:47 PM
SOXBOY SOXBOY is offline
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I understand Hahn kicking the tires on Machado but makes no sense to trade for a guy that can be got in free agency next year. Especially since the Sox are still rebuilding and at least year or so away from completing.
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