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  #31  
Old 08-17-2018, 02:17 AM
shes shes is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
An even better question would be: Was his rough patch simply a matter of a young person struggling to deal with grief?
The most obvious explanation, right?
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  #32  
Old 08-17-2018, 09:07 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
Could be- but if Cease is dominating AAA in April/May like he has AA the past 2 months- what's the point of waiting all the way to April, 2020 to bring him up? Does it really make sense to waste 3-4 months of his talent at AAA in 2019, when the team is improving thanks to Kopech and Jimenez?

If he's ready- a rotation of Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, Cease, Giolito would have the Sox on a very positive trajectory (along with the young arms arriving in the pen, Jimenez, etc,)- at some point getting the initial growing pains/league adjusting phase out of the way is important- and I think the Sox should be targeting 2020 for contention- with Madrigal, Robert and Collins entering the mix.
You make good points. To me, it’s a bit more of a complex picture.

First, if the Sox do wait until mid-April 2019 to promote Eloy and/or Kopech, it signals that they believe that extending team control through 2025 is more important than whatever marginal added value Eloy and/or Kopech can bring for the first two weeks in 2019. We may disagree with the Sox on that point, but it may be their thinking.

Second, if that is their thinking, then it would be logical to assume they might do similarly with subsequent top prospects like Cease, Robert, and Madrigal, but in this case wait until mid-April of 2020 (or 2021, as the case may be) to promote them.

Third, if so, it would be logical to assume that longevity/sustainability of the window of contention is of such importance so as to sacrifice short-term success.

Fourth, it is logical to surmise that the Sox view 2019 as another “building year,” and therefore not likely to make a big free agent splash this offseason.

Given all that, then, the only thing that could change their strategic calculus - which, while frustrating to us, is inherently logical over the long-term - would be for the 2019 team to start the season uncharacteristically well.

If I have accurately described their thinking, then only breakout performances by young incumbents like Giolito, Lopez, Moncada, and Anderson, coupled with characteristically strong performances by Avi, Abreu, and Rodon, plus an immediate impact by Kopech and Eloy upon promotion in mid-April, all of which thrusts the Sox into strong competition with Cleveland, would then “force the hand” of Hahn to reconsider his previous position, and be open to promoting Cease - if he’s dominating at Charlotte - sometime in mid-2019. In turn, that could make them more willing to be more aggressive with Robert, Madrigal, etc.

All that to say, if Hahn truly is playing the long game, then it’s up to the players currently on the roster (plus Eloy and Kopech) to start 2019 really hot.
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  #33  
Old 08-17-2018, 09:42 AM
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Madrigal struck out again. 3 K's in 98 AB's. Only 4 walks in that timespan, though. I hope he develops some power as well.

Steele Walker had 1 BB, 2 H, 3 SB's yesterday. Not bad!
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  #34  
Old 08-17-2018, 09:47 AM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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Originally Posted by blurry View Post
Madrigal struck out again. 3 K's in 98 AB's. Only 4 walks in that timespan, though. I hope he develops some power as well.

Steele Walker had 1 BB, 2 H, 3 SB's yesterday. Not bad!
I'm high on Madrigal, but from what I read his approach seems to go up swinging at the first pitch every time. Hope he can learn a little more discipline than that, even if he is a contact machine. Still getting roughly a hit per game, but would also like to see more power out of him. Also agree he needs to walk more if he's going to be playing at the top of the order in MLB.

No matter what the case I'm still really excited about the kid and can't wait to see what he does next year in AA.
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  #35  
Old 08-17-2018, 10:09 AM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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To help illustrate my above post, this is a tweet from BA writer describing how Houston's A+ team is attacking Madrigal:

https://twitter.com/KyleAGlaser/stat...august-16-2018

Last edited by DonnieDarko; 08-17-2018 at 10:18 AM.
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  #36  
Old 08-17-2018, 11:20 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
You make good points. To me, it’s a bit more of a complex picture.

First, if the Sox do wait until mid-April 2019 to promote Eloy and/or Kopech, it signals that they believe that extending team control through 2025 is more important than whatever marginal added value Eloy and/or Kopech can bring for the first two weeks in 2019. We may disagree with the Sox on that point, but it may be their thinking.

Second, if that is their thinking, then it would be logical to assume they might do similarly with subsequent top prospects like Cease, Robert, and Madrigal, but in this case wait until mid-April of 2020 (or 2021, as the case may be) to promote them.

Third, if so, it would be logical to assume that longevity/sustainability of the window of contention is of such importance so as to sacrifice short-term success.

Fourth, it is logical to surmise that the Sox view 2019 as another “building year,” and therefore not likely to make a big free agent splash this offseason.

Given all that, then, the only thing that could change their strategic calculus - which, while frustrating to us, is inherently logical over the long-term - would be for the 2019 team to start the season uncharacteristically well.

If I have accurately described their thinking, then only breakout performances by young incumbents like Giolito, Lopez, Moncada, and Anderson, coupled with characteristically strong performances by Avi, Abreu, and Rodon, plus an immediate impact by Kopech and Eloy upon promotion in mid-April, all of which thrusts the Sox into strong competition with Cleveland, would then “force the hand” of Hahn to reconsider his previous position, and be open to promoting Cease - if he’s dominating at Charlotte - sometime in mid-2019. In turn, that could make them more willing to be more aggressive with Robert, Madrigal, etc.

All that to say, if Hahn truly is playing the long game, then it’s up to the players currently on the roster (plus Eloy and Kopech) to start 2019 really hot.
You may be right- and I can understand holding off until April, 2019 to get max control- but once Jimenez and Kopech are up, I hope any "extreme' delays in calling a prospect up when they're ready are behind us. I don't want to waste a few years of control of those guys "slow walking" the next wave of Cease, Robert, Madrigal, Collins, etc. Don't rush them by any means, but call them up whenever they're ready, get them moving through their learning curve, and start to improve the product on the field.
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Players that are an important part of the rebuild:
Anderson, Giolito, Lopez, Moncada

Last edited by TomBradley72; 08-17-2018 at 12:15 PM.
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  #37  
Old 08-17-2018, 12:12 PM
LoveYourSuit LoveYourSuit is offline
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Originally Posted by DonnieDarko View Post
I'm high on Madrigal, but from what I read his approach seems to go up swinging at the first pitch every time. Hope he can learn a little more discipline than that, even if he is a contact machine. Still getting roughly a hit per game, but would also like to see more power out of him. Also agree he needs to walk more if he's going to be playing at the top of the order in MLB.

No matter what the case I'm still really excited about the kid and can't wait to see what he does next year in AA.
He's going to need to be a high OBP%, no doubt.
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  #38  
Old 08-17-2018, 12:39 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is online now
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Originally Posted by blurry View Post
Madrigal struck out again. 3 K's in 98 AB's. Only 4 walks in that timespan, though. I hope he develops some power as well.

Steele Walker had 1 BB, 2 H, 3 SB's yesterday. Not bad!

Ian Hamilton with yet another scoreless inning of relief for Charlotte. Will he be called up when the rosters expand in Sept?
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  #39  
Old 08-17-2018, 12:45 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is online now
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Originally Posted by LoveYourSuit View Post
Anyone still think Kopech isn't ready?

6 IP; 1 ER; 0BB; 9Ks

He's been outstanding. On a down note, it looks like he visibly took offense to a hitter getting a bunt single off of him and then proceeded to drill him in his next at bat, which caused the benches to clear. I love Kopech's fire, but this doesn't look good. I hope he learns to control his temper as he matures. Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled to death that he's in the Sox organization and I can't wait to see what he does in the majors....just saying what he did yesterday didn't look good.

https://www.soxmachine.com/2018/08/1...s-aug-16-2018/
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  #40  
Old 08-17-2018, 01:43 PM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
He's been outstanding. On a down note, it looks like he visibly took offense to a hitter getting a bunt single off of him and then proceeded to drill him in his next at bat, which caused the benches to clear. I love Kopech's fire, but this doesn't look good. I hope he learns to control his temper as he matures. Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled to death that he's in the Sox organization and I can't wait to see what he does in the majors....just saying what he did yesterday didn't look good.

https://www.soxmachine.com/2018/08/1...s-aug-16-2018/
Unless he was faking it, his reaction told me that he didn't mean to hit him. Maybe he meant to pitch him far inside, but hit him? Not buying it.

Last edited by DonnieDarko; 08-17-2018 at 02:57 PM.
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  #41  
Old 08-17-2018, 03:05 PM
Flight #24 Flight #24 is offline
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
You make good points. To me, it’s a bit more of a complex picture.

First, if the Sox do wait until mid-April 2019 to promote Eloy and/or Kopech, it signals that they believe that extending team control through 2025 is more important than whatever marginal added value Eloy and/or Kopech can bring for the first two weeks in 2019. We may disagree with the Sox on that point, but it may be their thinking.

Second, if that is their thinking, then it would be logical to assume they might do similarly with subsequent top prospects like Cease, Robert, and Madrigal, but in this case wait until mid-April of 2020 (or 2021, as the case may be) to promote them.

Third, if so, it would be logical to assume that longevity/sustainability of the window of contention is of such importance so as to sacrifice short-term success.

Fourth, it is logical to surmise that the Sox view 2019 as another “building year,” and therefore not likely to make a big free agent splash this offseason.

Given all that, then, the only thing that could change their strategic calculus - which, while frustrating to us, is inherently logical over the long-term - would be for the 2019 team to start the season uncharacteristically well.

If I have accurately described their thinking, then only breakout performances by young incumbents like Giolito, Lopez, Moncada, and Anderson, coupled with characteristically strong performances by Avi, Abreu, and Rodon, plus an immediate impact by Kopech and Eloy upon promotion in mid-April, all of which thrusts the Sox into strong competition with Cleveland, would then “force the hand” of Hahn to reconsider his previous position, and be open to promoting Cease - if he’s dominating at Charlotte - sometime in mid-2019. In turn, that could make them more willing to be more aggressive with Robert, Madrigal, etc.

All that to say, if Hahn truly is playing the long game, then it’s up to the players currently on the roster (plus Eloy and Kopech) to start 2019 really hot.
IMO the one thing I would differ on is that I think that for pitchers, so for example Kopech/Cease, it's much more likely that they have substantial growing pains than top tier hitters like Jimenez. Also there's a much higher chance that their period of dominance is shorter (injuries being a bigger deal for pitchers than hitters).

Therefore I think keeping them down longer to extend service time also pushes out the time when they are dominant. For that reason, I would bring Kopech up sooner than Eloy, and if ready would bring Cease up (maybe mid-late 2019). But for Eloy, I think I would bring him up as soon as the clock passes mid-April in 2019.

IMO: Kopech up September, Eloy mid-April. Cease to AAA to start 2019, comes up mid-late 2019. Robert/Madrigal to AA to start 2019, maybe a midseason promotion to AAA and then callups in mid-April 2020 (assuming all goes smoothly).
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  #42  
Old 08-17-2018, 03:24 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flight #24 View Post
IMO the one thing I would differ on is that I think that for pitchers, so for example Kopech/Cease, it's much more likely that they have substantial growing pains than top tier hitters like Jimenez. Also there's a much higher chance that their period of dominance is shorter (injuries being a bigger deal for pitchers than hitters).

Therefore I think keeping them down longer to extend service time also pushes out the time when they are dominant. For that reason, I would bring Kopech up sooner than Eloy, and if ready would bring Cease up (maybe mid-late 2019). But for Eloy, I think I would bring him up as soon as the clock passes mid-April in 2019.

IMO: Kopech up September, Eloy mid-April. Cease to AAA to start 2019, comes up mid-late 2019. Robert/Madrigal to AA to start 2019, maybe a midseason promotion to AAA and then callups in mid-April 2020 (assuming all goes smoothly).
All good points. Also, Kopech has had almost a full season at Charlotte, after nearly a full 2017 season at Birmingham. Eloy has had 38 games at Charlotte (after 71 total games at Birmingham between 2017 and 2018).
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  #43  
Old 08-17-2018, 05:16 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flight #24
Robert/Madrigal to AA to start 2019, maybe a midseason promotion to AAA and then callups in mid-April 2020 (assuming all goes smoothly).
Neither of those guys should be starting 2019 at Birmingham with fewer than 200 plate appearances at Winston-Salem.
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  #44  
Old 08-17-2018, 07:15 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Neither of those guys should be starting 2019 at Birmingham with fewer than 200 plate appearances at Winston-Salem.
I see no reason not to push either guy. It’s not like they are jumping up the show, just a level up to par with their talent.
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  #45  
Old 08-17-2018, 07:35 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by KRS1
I see no reason not to push either guy. It’s not like they are jumping up the show, just a level up to par with their talent.
Luis Robert has yet to hit a ball over a fence in an American baseball league. As a fan base, we seriously need to pump the brakes on this kid. There is no hurry.

The same goes for Nick Madrigal. He has been in this organization all of two months.

If they were putting up Eloy numbers, then it would be a different story. However, both Madrigal and Robert are currently OPS-ing below .700 in high-A.
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