White Sox Interactive Forums
Talking Baseball

Welcome
Go Back   White Sox Interactive Forums > Baseball Discussions > Talking Baseball
Home Chat Stats Register Blogs FAQ Calendar Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #16  
Old 07-18-2018, 09:20 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
Chief Skeptic and 2015 Preseason Predictions Contest Winner
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 6,505
Default

A comparable offer from the Sox might be Rutherford, Henzman, Tyler Johnson, Blackman, Eddy Alvarez.

It seems like an overpay. What will a few months of Machado be worth to them? Two additional wins?
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 07-18-2018, 09:26 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
WSI Personality
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 784
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
A comparable offer from the Sox might be Rutherford, Henzman, Tyler Johnson, Blackman, Eddy Alvarez.

It seems like an overpay. What will a few months of Machado be worth to them? Two additional wins?
Could easily be the difference between winning the division and being put in the wild card game. Not to mention how formidable they would be in the playoffs with him in the heart of the order now. They are clearly a better team now, and they had prospects to blow. It was a good move.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 07-18-2018, 09:42 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 9,340
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by A. Cavatica
A comparable offer from the Sox might be Rutherford, Henzman, Tyler Johnson, Blackman, Eddy Alvarez.

It seems like an overpay. What will a few months of Machado be worth to them? Two additional wins?
When you spin your wheels for three months, you are left with no choice but to pay through the nose for three wins.

On a side note, now we know what a realistic return on Abreu would look like. If Manny Machado fetched the Orioles a fringe Top-100 prospect, a young backup infielder, and three depth pieces, then we all need to stop expecting a Top-50 prospect headliner plus a whole bunch more value for Jose Abreu. If we can get a prospect along the lines of Diaz straight up for Abreu, itís a good move.

Kittle42 mentioned Riley Pint in another thread. Someone along those lines would be a perfectly acceptable return in an Abreu trade.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsemaster Fred
This is the major leagues so get it how you live and letís fight tomorrow.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 07-18-2018, 09:42 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
Chief Skeptic and 2015 Preseason Predictions Contest Winner
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 6,505
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Could easily be the difference between winning the division and being put in the wild card game. Not to mention how formidable they would be in the playoffs with him in the heart of the order now. They are clearly a better team now, and they had prospects to blow. It was a good move.
True. In a vacuum, it's an overpay, but if you're half a game up in a tight division and you aren't giving up your future then it's an easy decision.

Just don't do it to prop up a team that has tons of holes, or you'll "Kenny Williams" your farm system.

What would Machado be worth to the 2018 Sox? I wouldn't offer more than, say, Blackman and Alvarez. Machado would be worth something because of ticket sales, merchandise, and getting a leg up on the FA bidding. He would not be worth surrendering anyone who might have a big league future.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 07-19-2018, 07:26 AM
blandman blandman is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,742
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
A comparable offer from the Sox might be Rutherford, Henzman, Tyler Johnson, Blackman, Eddy Alvarez.

It seems like an overpay. What will a few months of Machado be worth to them? Two additional wins?
It could be worth a World Series.

The last few years it feels like teams have not done enough to try and win, and it's lead to some really boring baseball. GMs are less concerned with trying to win a world series, and more concerned with just being good enough and keeping their prospects.

The Cubs traded one of the best prospects in baseball for a rental of a relief pitcher. Doubt they would have won a World Series without him.
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 07-19-2018, 08:57 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 12,505
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
A comparable offer from the Sox might be Rutherford, Henzman, Tyler Johnson, Blackman, Eddy Alvarez.

It seems like an overpay. What will a few months of Machado be worth to them? Two additional wins?
If those 2 additional wins are in the post-season, then it'll be worthwhile for the Dodgers.

They want to win a WS title now....and they should be going for it now.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 07-19-2018, 08:57 AM
mzh mzh is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 3,221
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
It could be worth a World Series.

The last few years it feels like teams have not done enough to try and win, and it's lead to some really boring baseball. GMs are less concerned with trying to win a world series, and more concerned with just being good enough and keeping their prospects.

The Cubs traded one of the best prospects in baseball for a rental of a relief pitcher. Doubt they would have won a World Series without him.
I read an interesting what-if article about the Chapman deal, I'll try to go find it. Written by a Cubs fan. It basically says that the fact that they won the World Series does too much to lessen the perception that being an awful, lopsided deal. The argument is that Chapman's effect on winning it all was fairly minimal: they would have had the Division wrapped up either way, and Chapman was good but not great in the postseason (3.5 ERA, almost blew Game 7) and they almost certainly could have picked up someone to do that without giving up 7 years of an All-Star SS.

Hey, hindsight's 20/20 (Having lost that Series, the Indians would probably rather have Frazier and Sheffield) but I do think the Chapman trade is probably not a great model to be followed. It's a good trade for LA, just like the Darvish trade was last year. We'll see whether it puts them over the top.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 07-19-2018, 09:10 AM
voodoochile's Avatar
voodoochile voodoochile is offline
Soda Jerk/U.P.W./Lester Pooh Bear
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 54,902
Blog Entries: 9
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
If those 2 additional wins are in the post-season, then it'll be worthwhile for the Dodgers.

They want to win a WS title now....and they should be going for it now.
And if those two additional wins come DURING the post season the team might well win it all...
__________________

Riding shotgun on the Sox bandwagon since before there was an Internet...
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 07-19-2018, 09:17 AM
blandman blandman is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,742
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mzh View Post
I read an interesting what-if article about the Chapman deal, I'll try to go find it. Written by a Cubs fan. It basically says that the fact that they won the World Series does too much to lessen the perception that being an awful, lopsided deal. The argument is that Chapman's effect on winning it all was fairly minimal: they would have had the Division wrapped up either way, and Chapman was good but not great in the postseason (3.5 ERA, almost blew Game 7) and they almost certainly could have picked up someone to do that without giving up 7 years of an All-Star SS.

Hey, hindsight's 20/20 (Having lost that Series, the Indians would probably rather have Frazier and Sheffield) but I do think the Chapman trade is probably not a great model to be followed. It's a good trade for LA, just like the Darvish trade was last year. We'll see whether it puts them over the top.
Outside of game seven, Chapman was pretty unhittable that postseason. He ran out of gas specifically because they were using him so much in the playoffs. He essentially got all their high leverage innings, and I'd argue that he was their postseason MVP. 15+ high leverage innings in three playoff series at the highest level.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 07-19-2018, 10:03 AM
mzh mzh is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 3,221
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Outside of game seven, Chapman was pretty unhittable that postseason. He ran out of gas specifically because they were using him so much in the playoffs. He essentially got all their high leverage innings, and I'd argue that he was their postseason MVP. 15+ high leverage innings in three playoff series at the highest level.
That's fair, I'm probably biased towards those last few outings where he was definitely gassed.

I think the Cubs circumstances were fairly unique, too. The Dodgers haven't won it for a while, but it's a totally different dynamic. If there was ever a team that needed to overpay for the certainty of a guy like Chapman, it was probably the 2016 Cubs. I'm just saying that that particular end result of a WS win still doesn't make it great logic to trade Gleyber Torres for a half-season rental. Not that anyone's really doing that, I guess. If anything, it just highlights how much more trade value pitching has at the deadline. Machado and JD Martinez last year combined brought back maybe one prospect with as much promise as even a lower-end high quality rental like Rich Hill a couple years ago.

EDIT: It looks like the Indians just traded for Brad Hand, so I guess we'll get to see what the actual teams think soon enough!

Last edited by mzh; 07-19-2018 at 10:17 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 07-19-2018, 10:20 AM
voodoochile's Avatar
voodoochile voodoochile is offline
Soda Jerk/U.P.W./Lester Pooh Bear
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 54,902
Blog Entries: 9
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mzh View Post
That's fair, I'm probably biased towards those last few outings where he was definitely gassed.

I think the Cubs circumstances were fairly unique, too. The Dodgers haven't won it for a while, but it's a totally different dynamic. If there was ever a team that needed to overpay for the certainty of a guy like Chapman, it was probably the 2016 Cubs. I'm just saying that that particular end result of a WS win still doesn't make it great logic to trade Gleyber Torres for a half-season rental. Not that anyone's really doing that, I guess. If anything, it just highlights how much more trade value pitching has at the deadline. Machado and JD Martinez last year combined brought back maybe one prospect with as much promise as even a lower-end high quality rental like Rich Hill a couple years ago.

EDIT: It looks like the Indians just traded for Brad Hand, so I guess we'll get to see what the actual teams think soon enough!
I think almost any team will do whatever it takes if they feel it gives them a solid shot at a WS title. If I told you the Sox could win the WS this year guaranteed by trading Eloy, Roberts and Kopech today I think most fans would make that trade.

I want to be clear, I'm not advocating for that, but as an extreme example, the title in the hand is worth two in the bush...
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 07-19-2018, 10:30 AM
mzh mzh is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 3,221
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I think almost any team will do whatever it takes if they feel it gives them a solid shot at a WS title. If I told you the Sox could win the WS this year guaranteed by trading Eloy, Roberts and Kopech today I think most fans would make that trade.

I want to be clear, I'm not advocating for that, but as an extreme example, the title in the hand is worth two in the bush...
Oh you're absolutely right. I was just saying that any way you have it the postseason is such a crapshoot that I don't know if I would ever make that kind of deal, but like I said the Cubs kind of had extenuating circumstances that year.

Like, the Indians just traded the best catching prospect in baseball for 3 potential postseasons of an elite reliever, and that's going to be seen as incredibly risky. I wouldn't have traded Gleyber for a single run with Chapman. Obviously it worked out for them but I think that's probably the upper limit of how much a team will (and probably should) give up for a single shot at a championship.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



Forum Jump




All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:22 PM.




Design by: Michelle

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Site-specific editorial/photos Copyright ©2001 - 2008 White Sox Interactive. All rights reserved.