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  #91  
Old 10-20-2017, 09:17 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Trib article this morning on how much Harper is worth with a fairly deep dive into his numbers.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports...020-story.html
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  #92  
Old 10-20-2017, 10:25 AM
chisox59 chisox59 is offline
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I thought I'd add my two cents into this discussion. It seems as if a lot of the articles I read in regards to Sox draft picks and signings is a repetitive mention of player character and clubhouse presence. I think much of this has derived from the fallout from the Laroche incident and has made the front office much more aware of what can be detrimental to a team regardless of a players ability. Bryce Harper has a definite ego and there was quite a lot of discussion on him in the minor league section after he first began his career in the Nationals organization. Most post were negative in regards to his attitude. A couple of years ago he created quite a problem with the Nats by having a run in with Strasberg. I don't think it matters what kind of numbers he puts up....I think his attitude alone will stop the Sox from even considering him.
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  #93  
Old 10-20-2017, 10:51 AM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
But you are comparing Abreu's stats age 27-30 with Harper's age 19-24 seasons....
Ok. Doesn't change the numbers any.
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  #94  
Old 10-20-2017, 10:55 AM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by blurry View Post
I'm willing to bet if you polled every single FO in major league baseball, every single executive would say 1)Harper has been, and is, a better player than Abreu and 2)they'd all rather have Harper than Abreu, even if it meant paying 3x the price for him.
Again, ok, but the numbers I posted remain the numbers they produced. I simply posted the facts of their current production. What people make of that or age or the eye test or belief in future production or position or defensive value or ticket sale value or... whatever... doesn't change the actual numbers they have produced.
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  #95  
Old 10-20-2017, 11:32 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
Again, ok, but the numbers I posted remain the numbers they produced. I simply posted the facts of their current production. What people make of that or age or the eye test or belief in future production or position or defensive value or ticket sale value or... whatever... doesn't change the actual numbers they have produced.
If you tell me two QBs threw for 25 TDs and 10 INTs in a season, I wouldn't tell you they were fundamentally the same player.

I can't tell if you're being difficult for the sake of being difficult on this one.
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  #96  
Old 10-20-2017, 12:01 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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If you tell me two QBs threw for 25 TDs and 10 INTs in a season, I wouldn't tell you they were fundamentally the same player.

I can't tell if you're being difficult for the sake of being difficult on this one.
But I didn't say they were fundamentally the same player (and I used A LOT more statistical comparisons than just two). I simply posted the numbers (a lot of them). And in fact, stated that given how young Harper is we can expect that his best is yet to come. I made no judgment call whatsoever on whether one was better than the other... except to hint that it might be Harper... and to later say that I don't see the need for him even so given that we already have a guy producing the same or better than him and one in the minors that looks like he might join the same company in a few years.

And yes, I do get difficult when people try to argue that I've said something I haven't said.

Now I'll state my opinion...

I think Harper is a really talented player. One of the most talented in the game today (I previously stated that I did the comparison with Harper, Stanton, and Trout just out of curiosity as to how Abreu stacked up). It remains to be seen if Harper is a great player. He needs to stay healthy, mature in the head, and realize his potential. The comparison with Abreu shows that he has not realized his potential.

I think Abreu is a great player because he is mature and does produce on the field. I was surprised that the comparison came out as favorable to Abreu as it did. But it reinforced something I already knew, that we don't often value the quiet, steady players as much as we should and over value the hyped up flashy players even when they aren't living up to their reputation/potential.

So the fact remains that Abreu has done as much or more in four years than Harper has in six. That is not a statement on whether Harper has more value over the next ten years or not. Assuming he doesn't suffer catastrophic injury, he almost certainly does. Abreu will likely not be playing 10 years from now while Harper will still have a few productive years to go.

But as of this moment I would rather have Abreu in my line-up and I wouldn't take the risk of shelling out a long-term $400 million contract to a guy like Harper even if there was a chance of him signing it. Given injury history, ego problems, and the fact that we are still talking "potential" even after six years in the majors makes him a risky proposition in my book.

Now, if we were talking about Trout that would be a different story... though I am still generically opposed to contracts like that.
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  #97  
Old 10-20-2017, 12:54 PM
Zisk77 Zisk77 is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
But I didn't say they were fundamentally the same player (and I used A LOT more statistical comparisons than just two). I simply posted the numbers (a lot of them). And in fact, stated that given how young Harper is we can expect that his best is yet to come. I made no judgment call whatsoever on whether one was better than the other... except to hint that it might be Harper... and to later say that I don't see the need for him even so given that we already have a guy producing the same or better than him and one in the minors that looks like he might join the same company in a few years.

And yes, I do get difficult when people try to argue that I've said something I haven't said.

Now I'll state my opinion...

I think Harper is a really talented player. One of the most talented in the game today (I previously stated that I did the comparison with Harper, Stanton, and Trout just out of curiosity as to how Abreu stacked up). It remains to be seen if Harper is a great player. He needs to stay healthy, mature in the head, and realize his potential. The comparison with Abreu shows that he has not realized his potential.

I think Abreu is a great player because he is mature and does produce on the field. I was surprised that the comparison came out as favorable to Abreu as it did. But it reinforced something I already knew, that we don't often value the quiet, steady players as much as we should and over value the hyped up flashy players even when they aren't living up to their reputation/potential.

So the fact remains that Abreu has done as much or more in four years than Harper has in six. That is not a statement on whether Harper has more value over the next ten years or not. Assuming he doesn't suffer catastrophic injury, he almost certainly does. Abreu will likely not be playing 10 years from now while Harper will still have a few productive years to go.

But as of this moment I would rather have Abreu in my line-up and I wouldn't take the risk of shelling out a long-term $400 million contract to a guy like Harper even if there was a chance of him signing it. Given injury history, ego problems, and the fact that we are still talking "potential" even after six years in the majors makes him a risky proposition in my book.

Now, if we were talking about Trout that would be a different story... though I am still generically opposed to contracts like that.
Well stated. My take from your statistical comparison of Harper & Abreu was not in any way that Abreu was better than Harper, but How good Abreu has been despite having (for him) a power outage his second year and many thinking he wasn't the guy we saw in his rookie year.

The thing that those stats don't show is that Harper is a 5 tool player where Jose is a 3 tool player. Jose's 3 tools are really good and he has made a fielding upgrade to at least serviceable from liability at a non premium defensive position.
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  #98  
Old 10-20-2017, 02:51 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Now I'll state my opinion...
Thank you for sharing. Context is important!
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  #99  
Old 10-20-2017, 04:19 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by hdog1017
I wouldn't want to tie up all the payroll in one guy.
That is the other side to the equation. Eventually, there will come a time when this type of contract will cause the organization to either:

1. Accommodate big-ticket signings more frequently and more willingly than they ever have before

Or

2. Be honest with themselves that the best chances for success are going to come from running this organization with a small-market mentality.
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  #100  
Old 10-21-2017, 06:44 PM
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Actually, he was the 8th worst player in baseball with at least 300 PAs by WAR - two spots worse than Adam freakin' Engel, whose defense saves him.

The perception that guys who hit like Davidson and, say, Mark Trumbo are "good" or even "OK" is based solely by looking at HR and RBI counting numbers relative to how we remember those stats being 10+ years ago. Those numbers are so, so easily replaceable in the modern game.

As to the "still did OK for his first year" statement - of MLB rookies with 300 PAs, he was 26th of 26 - dead last - in WAR.

He was very bad. I don't care if he's starting every day next season, because next season is very likely meaningless, but I really hope he is not here in 2019 unless he morphs into a far better hitter.
Right. I mean, if they cut ties with him, I don't care. If they bring him back for another kick at the can next season, I don't care, because the Sox aren't going to win in 2018 anyway. All I'm saying is he is not adequate, let alone more than adequate, and he's not going to be here the next time the Sox contend. It's that simple.

You can say, well, it was his first year in the league. OK, fine. But what was his track record in the minor leagues? Very low batting average, lots of strikeouts, not many walks and some home runs. The things he did with the Sox in 2017 were very much like the things he did at Triple-A. It's folly to expect him to be anything more than that.

There should and probably will be internal competition for playing time at 3B next spring, but I'll be rooting for Sanchez to win the job. First and foremost, Sanchez is the best defensive infielder on this club, and I like people who prevent runs from being scored against my team. Second, I think Sanchez has a chance to survive the rebuild roster churn as a utility player. In contrast, I don't see any scenario in which Davidson is still in a Sox uniform in, say, 2020. In fact, I doubt he'll still be in MLB in 2020. So, I'd rather see Sanchez get the reps.

It's funny how much this board criticizes Tim Anderson for his lack of walks and lack of overall plate discipline. Those criticisms are, of course, justified. But Davidson is rarely taken to task for his free-swinging ways, although his lack of discipline is just as bad, if not worse. The opposing pitcher could throw the rosin bag up at home plate and Davidson would probably hack at it.

At least Anderson brings some utility both with the glove and on the basepaths.
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  #101  
Old 10-21-2017, 08:30 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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It's funny how much this board criticizes Tim Anderson for his lack of walks and lack of overall plate discipline. Those criticisms are, of course, justified. But Davidson is rarely taken to task for his free-swinging ways, although his lack of discipline is just as bad, if not worse. The opposing pitcher could throw the rosin bag up at home plate and Davidson would probably hack at it.

At least Anderson brings some utility both with the glove and on the basepaths.
I think most of that is because Tim Anderson has a chance to be a really special baseball player. Matt Davidson does not have that chance.
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  #102  
Old 10-21-2017, 09:58 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
Actually, he was the 8th worst player in baseball with at least 300 PAs by WAR - two spots worse than Adam freakin' Engel, whose defense saves him.

The perception that guys who hit like Davidson and, say, Mark Trumbo are "good" or even "OK" is based solely by looking at HR and RBI counting numbers relative to how we remember those stats being 10+ years ago. Those numbers are so, so easily replaceable in the modern game.

As to the "still did OK for his first year" statement - of MLB rookies with 300 PAs, he was 26th of 26 - dead last - in WAR.
First year. 26 homers is enough to warrant a second look.
Trumbo is not my cup of tea either. But I will point out that a)Arizona traded Skaggs and Eaton for him and b)he's making over 8 figures per. So some teams value that type of player. Dress him up and trade him.
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  #103  
Old 10-21-2017, 11:22 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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We might get lucky with Davidson figuring out how to hit at the major league level but I doubt it.

I too, want to see Sanchez at third next year. He is a vastly superior ballplayer in all but one aspect of the game.

My hope is that Davidson will be the right-handed half of a DH platoon with Delmonico next year. He might provide his maximum value that way.

His sample size is small but he hit .250 against lefties and .209 against righties. His strikeout percentage was still waaaaaaaay too high against lefties (30% of plate appearances) but significantly better than against righties (40%). Seven of his nineteen walks came against lefties while only about 27% of his plate appearances did. BABIP against lefties .324 vs. .268 against righties.

I agree that he is highly unlikely to be here in two years.
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  #104  
Old 10-22-2017, 04:26 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
We might get lucky with Davidson figuring out how to hit at the major league level but I doubt it.

I too, want to see Sanchez at third next year. He is a vastly superior ballplayer in all but one aspect of the game.
Sanchez has to learn to run the bases better.
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  #105  
Old 10-22-2017, 09:01 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
We might get lucky with Davidson figuring out how to hit at the major league level but I doubt it.

I too, want to see Sanchez at third next year. He is a vastly superior ballplayer in all but one aspect of the game.

My hope is that Davidson will be the right-handed half of a DH platoon with Delmonico next year. He might provide his maximum value that way.

His sample size is small but he hit .250 against lefties and .209 against righties. His strikeout percentage was still waaaaaaaay too high against lefties (30% of plate appearances) but significantly better than against righties (40%). Seven of his nineteen walks came against lefties while only about 27% of his plate appearances did. BABIP against lefties .324 vs. .268 against righties.

I agree that he is highly unlikely to be here in two years.
He offers some defensive ability at first and third too. He's an okay player to have on the bench for a rebuilding club.
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