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  #16  
Old 06-18-2019, 03:34 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Ok, what kind of prospect do you think it is reasonable to acquire, if the Sox were to pay Abreuís full remaining salary? Itís nice to speak in hypotheticals, but it would be better to have a specific realistic prospect target.
That would be up to Rick Hahn, and the guy has been downright masterful with his acquisition of young talent.

Take a shot and see if the Astros would give you an outfielder. Their outfield is locked down through 2020, and they will have Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez ready to fill spots for 2021 and beyond.

Abreu and cash for Gurriel and Derek Fisher. Pay enough to cover the difference in salaries for 2019, take Gurrielís $8.4 million hit for 2020, and see if that can get you a half-decade of a really good outfielder.

To be honest, Iím not convinced that this trade would make you worse next year, even if Abreu did not come back. The upgrade in RF would be substantial, perhaps even larger than the downgrade between Abreu and whoever replaces him.
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  #17  
Old 06-18-2019, 03:43 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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To be honest, Iím not convinced that this trade would make you worse next year, even if Abreu did not come back. The upgrade in RF would be substantial, perhaps even larger than the downgrade between Abreu and whoever replaces him.
We should note that Abreu is a solid, dependable, high-quality hitter. However, in today's game, his bat and skills play at a position that is more and more replaceable. As good as he is, he is 11th in both WAR and OPS among qualified 1B, behind such luminaries as Vogelbach, Cron, Voit, and C. Walker.

A guy with Abreu's skill seat was mega-valuable 10 years ago. He's still valuable now, just not really as much.
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  #18  
Old 06-18-2019, 03:59 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Abreu and cash for Gurriel and Derek Fisher. Pay enough to cover the difference in salaries for 2019, take Gurrielís $8.4 million hit for 2020, and see if that can get you a half-decade of a really good outfielder.
If thatís the case, weíre buying low on both of those Astros; weíre hoping they rebound, because as of their 2019 numbers right now neither of them would add much to the Sox lineup. Maybe thatís the value of Abreu.

If youíre going all in, Iíd rather package Abreu and Colome and get back quality over quantity.
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  #19  
Old 06-18-2019, 04:17 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
If thatís the case, weíre buying low on both of those Astros; weíre hoping they rebound, because as of their 2019 numbers right now neither of them would add much to the Sox lineup. Maybe thatís the value of Abreu.

If youíre going all in, Iíd rather package Abreu and Colome and get back quality over quantity.
Derek Fisher would immediately leapfrog every outfielder in our organization not named Eloy or Robert. He hits the ball hard. His main problem is that Houstonís outfield is too crowded to get him everyday plate appearances. He was a top-100 prospect before he ďgraduatedĒ off the list.

To be honest, I donít know if the Astros would even do this deal, but there are a few reasons why the Astros may be open to it. Fisher is out of options next year. By the time 2021 rolls around, he will already be in the 2+ year service class, probably with enough service time to qualify for Super Two arbitration. His ďcost-controlledĒ years will be spent on the bench if he stays. A sizable OPS upgrade for 2019 at zero financial cost and a sizable salary dump in 2020 when all those big-money extensions start taking effect may be worth giving up a really good young player who is roadblocked.
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  #20  
Old 06-18-2019, 05:06 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
If thatís the case, weíre buying low on both of those Astros; weíre hoping they rebound, because as of their 2019 numbers right now neither of them would add much to the Sox lineup. Maybe thatís the value of Abreu.

If youíre going all in, Iíd rather package Abreu and Colome and get back quality over quantity.
Trading Colome or McCann does lose them for next season also because both of them have an arbitration year left. I understand the argument for trading Abreu in that he will almost surely be available this winter, the other two will not be unless the Sox trade back for them.
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  #21  
Old 06-18-2019, 07:00 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Derek Fisher would immediately leapfrog every outfielder in our organization not named Eloy or Robert. He hits the ball hard. His main problem is that Houston’s outfield is too crowded to get him everyday plate appearances. He was a top-100 prospect before he “graduated” off the list.

To be honest, I don’t know if the Astros would even do this deal, but there are a few reasons why the Astros may be open to it. Fisher is out of options next year. By the time 2021 rolls around, he will already be in the 2+ year service class, probably with enough service time to qualify for Super Two arbitration. His “cost-controlled” years will be spent on the bench if he stays. A sizable OPS upgrade for 2019 at zero financial cost and a sizable salary dump in 2020 when all those big-money extensions start taking effect may be worth giving up a really good young player who is roadblocked.
Is there really much difference between Fisher and Palka on paper? Similar O, similar D. Palka doesn't have the hype an Astros prospect has.
It's an okay trade by me I guess, as Abreu unfortunately doesn't have the value he seemingly should.
Prefer a pitcher-fisher type; because aside from Cease, the Sox have nothing healthy and close.
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