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  #61  
Old 06-20-2017, 12:47 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
I can't imagine he starts the season as the overall #1. A strong 2018 season will push him close though.
Wait, I thought this guy was the next Mike Trout. You saying he might not go #1?
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  #62  
Old 06-20-2017, 10:11 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Wait, I thought this guy was the next Mike Trout. You saying he might not go #1?
The hype from his freshman year might have been a tad bit overstated. He struggled in the Cape Cod League and it carried over a bit to his sophomore season. He's still a phenomenal talent, but his stock is definitely down.
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  #63  
Old 06-22-2017, 08:53 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Wait, I thought this guy was the next Mike Trout. You saying he might not go #1?
Trout, of course, went what... #25?

This is why I have thought the Seth Beer fascination is silly. There is no way to predict at this point if the kid will be a star in professional baseball or not. You don't play for a draft pick.
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  #64  
Old 07-08-2017, 01:52 PM
pythons007 pythons007 is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
Trout, of course, went what... #25?

This is why I have thought the Seth Beer fascination is silly. There is no way to predict at this point if the kid will be a star in professional baseball or not. You don't play for a draft pick.
Washington did twice for Harper and Strasburg. There is noway that you can guarantee the outcome of a players career. All you can do is draft the best player available and hope for the best.
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  #65  
Old 07-08-2017, 08:32 PM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
Trout, of course, went what... #25?

This is why I have thought the Seth Beer fascination is silly. There is no way to predict at this point if the kid will be a star in professional baseball or not. You don't play for a draft pick.
Silly me. I thought we were supposed to lose lose lose and get the highest draft pick possible. As for Seth Beer, if the Sox never draft him it will be just fine with me.
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  #66  
Old 07-10-2017, 11:19 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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The higher you draft, the better your odds are of getting an All-Star caliber player. The expected value of each pick drops quite dramatically from the beginning of the first round to the middle of the first round. Let's not lose sight of that.
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  #67  
Old 07-10-2017, 02:57 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
The higher you draft, the better your odds are of getting an All-Star caliber player. The expected value of each pick drops quite dramatically from the beginning of the first round to the middle of the first round. Let's not lose sight of that.
Exactly.

You can love Seth Beer, you can dislike him and think there is a better player but the higher you pick the more likely you get a quality player.

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/s...picks-by-slot/

you are almost 10% more likely to find a superior player picks 1-5 than 6-10 and 5% less likely to be a total bust.
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  #68  
Old 07-10-2017, 04:31 PM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
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I like Seth Beer. A friend scouted him for me when I was unable to attend the South Carolina/Clemson game in Columbia. He came away impressed. I just don't think he is the next Mike Trout and I don't look at baseball drafts exactly like some of you do. I don't partly because of the excellent research posted right on this site. Baseball drafts are just a different animal IMHO. I would like to see the Sox draft better, much better regardless of how high they are picking in any given year. I will say I'm hopeful about this year's draft. Let's see how Seth Beer does next year. He's getting top flight competition in the ACC.
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