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  #46  
Old 03-04-2005, 11:03 AM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dadawg_77
I said "in general" and you bring up a single case to dispute it. The fact is lot more "tools" phenoms without the production fail then guys without the "tools" who produce do and guys without the "tools" but produce succeed more often then the "tools" phenoms without the production. You can back that claim up with research.

Scouting isn't worth much when you look at minor leaguers, all the intangibles you mention would be worth something if a player produces thus covered by looking at the numbers. The player tells you everything you need to know by whether or not they are producing in the minors.

Back to the list, ***? Joe Mauer is their number one prospect? Come on now, the only reason this guy could be consider was he got hurt last year. That is a cheap choice.
When using performance-based analysis of draft-eligible players, you're limiting yourself to really only college players. Doing that more than halves your draft/talent-pool. On top of that, unless you have top 10 picks every year (where the top-producing college players, especially pitchers, usually end up), you're pool of players has been greatly pulled over with a fine-tooth comb. This method is no-doubt a good way to draft players with a higher chance of making/producing in the majors and generally in a shorter period of time, but it also GREATLY reduces the chances for drafting/developing a star/stud and limits the utility gained by drafting anywhere after the top 12-15 rounds.

That is the major fault I find with applying performance-based analysis to draft-eligible players. HS players not only have the greatest opportunity for coaching and development, but finding the ones that are physically talented and mentally capable is what GOOD scouting is. There are a lot of bad scouts out there working in baseball, don't get me wrong, but you brandish your keyboard against all scouts as some kind of Excallibur, and it's patently ridiculous...
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  #47  
Old 03-04-2005, 11:11 AM
Flight #24 Flight #24 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randar68
When using performance-based analysis of draft-eligible players, you're limiting yourself to really only college players. Doing that more than halves your draft/talent-pool. On top of that, unless you have top 10 picks every year (where the top-producing college players, especially pitchers, usually end up), you're pool of players has been greatly pulled over with a fine-tooth comb. This method is no-doubt a good way to draft players with a higher chance of making/producing in the majors and generally in a shorter period of time, but it also GREATLY reduces the chances for drafting/developing a star/stud and limits the utility gained by drafting anywhere after the top 12-15 rounds.
Intersting point, has anyone done an analysis of say the top 50-100 players in MLB to see which were drafted out of college v. HS? I've heard the "college players are better bets to make the bigs, but less to be stars" argument before, but have never seen any data analyzing that situation.

Off the top of my head, I'd guess the FA signings from Latin America might be the biggest source of stars, and that's more akin to HS drafting than colleges. But that's not based on any analysis.
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  #48  
Old 03-04-2005, 11:24 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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The way things are going in MLB, it appears that in the future most of the top players won't even be drafted. Tons are flowing in from training academies in South America...
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  #49  
Old 03-04-2005, 11:26 AM
Dadawg_77 Dadawg_77 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randar68
When using performance-based analysis of draft-eligible players, you're limiting yourself to really only college players. Doing that more than halves your draft/talent-pool. On top of that, unless you have top 10 picks every year (where the top-producing college players, especially pitchers, usually end up), you're pool of players has been greatly pulled over with a fine-tooth comb. This method is no-doubt a good way to draft players with a higher chance of making/producing in the majors and generally in a shorter period of time, but it also GREATLY reduces the chances for drafting/developing a star/stud and limits the utility gained by drafting anywhere after the top 12-15 rounds.

That is the major fault I find with applying performance-based analysis to draft-eligible players. HS players not only have the greatest opportunity for coaching and development, but finding the ones that are physically talented and mentally capable is what GOOD scouting is. There are a lot of bad scouts out there working in baseball, don't get me wrong, but you brandish your keyboard against all scouts as some kind of Excallibur, and it's patently ridiculous...
I wasn't talking about scouting high school players for the draft. Obviously there is need for scouting there. What I am talking about once a player is drafted, performace-based analysis becomes a lot more valuable then scouting reports and grows in value the closer you get to the majors. It has been 17 years since James proved minor league stats correlate with major league performance yet you don't see it application used as widely as it should till recently.
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  #50  
Old 03-04-2005, 11:28 AM
Dadawg_77 Dadawg_77 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flight #24
Intersting point, has anyone done an analysis of say the top 50-100 players in MLB to see which were drafted out of college v. HS? I've heard the "college players are better bets to make the bigs, but less to be stars" argument before, but have never seen any data analyzing that situation.

Off the top of my head, I'd guess the FA signings from Latin America might be the biggest source of stars, and that's more akin to HS drafting than colleges. But that's not based on any analysis.
Go look at BP and you'll find. The biggest area you see the gap is pitchers because of the meat grinder they go through between 18-24. Since college pitchers have pass through most of this already, they have less of a injury risk.
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  #51  
Old 03-04-2005, 11:32 AM
Randar68 Randar68 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dadawg_77
Go look at BP and you'll find. The biggest area you see the gap is pitchers because of the meat grinder they go through between 18-24. Since college pitchers have pass through most of this already, they have less of a injury risk.
College pitchers are also far more abused than HS or minor league pitchers and get less coaching.
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