White Sox Interactive Forums
Talking Baseball

Welcome
Go Back   White Sox Interactive Forums > Baseball Discussions > Talking Baseball
Home Chat Stats Register Blogs FAQ Calendar Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #61  
Old 01-03-2018, 07:07 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 8,220
Default

After the past two offseasons, I can only guess that reliever contracts must derive their values on something other than WAR and usage rates.

Look at a guy like Kenley Jansen. Last year, he was basically the Platonic ideal for an MLB closer, and his WAR was still only 3.0 despite his dominance. Meanwhile, Fernando Rodney gave the Diamondbacks 0.4 WAR last year. When I watch the two players, I can’t wrap my head around the fact that Jansen is only 2.6 wins better than Rodney.

Even 9th-inning mastermind Mariano Rivera maxed-out with a 5.0 WAR in 1996, when he was setup man for John Wetteland. A major reason he reached that lofty level was because he had a 107-inning workload that year, a marked increase from his typical 60-70 innings per season when he later ascended to the closer’s role.

The incremental WAR gains between elite guys like Jansen and average guys like Rodney seem to defy the multimillion-dollar differences in their salaries. Teams must be using something else to place value on these guys.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsemaster Fred
This is the major leagues so get it how you live and let’s fight tomorrow.
Reply With Quote
  #62  
Old 01-03-2018, 08:00 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Western Suburbs
Posts: 2,992
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post

The incremental WAR gains between elite guys like Jansen and average guys like Rodney seem to defy the multimillion-dollar differences in their salaries. Teams must be using something else to place value on these guys.
Yeah, that something else is this:



The Giants are looking at Jay Bruce and Andrew McCutchen.

https://www.mlb.com/news/giants-seek...lp/c-264252764
__________________
“There were a few hard rules, but everybody was unique, and he understood that. George’s great strength was he didn’t overcoach. There’s no place for panic on the mound.” - Jim Palmer on George Bamberger “Arms and the man,” Sports Illustrated, April 19, 2004

Last edited by Grzegorz; 01-04-2018 at 04:57 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #63  
Old 01-05-2018, 01:27 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 4,527
Default

If you compare teams' cumulative WAR to actual wins, it simply does not add up
__________________
"Respect was invented to cover the empty place where love should be."
Reply With Quote
  #64  
Old 01-06-2018, 09:08 AM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Deep in the heart of Dixie
Posts: 5,307
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
If you compare teams' cumulative WAR to actual wins, it simply does not add up
Not only that but go back and see if teams with the best magical pythagorean win total or SRS always win. You can find so many anomalies and head scratchers in team and individual WAR totals. Guys like Billy Pierce and especially Whitey Ford get hurt badly in WAR games because for some reason pitchers in their era just didn't get the big WAR totals. Look at Whitey Ford's pitching lines for 1953-55 and not just his W-L record but all his stats. Now tell me John Danks 2008-10 was a cumulative 6.8 WAR better than Whitey Ford. Take the time and you'll find more. A lot more. Then of course FanGraphs and baseball-reference use different alchemies to compute WAR. Still more and more fans will take that magic number and believe it with a religious fervor. Oppose it and all you do is get put on ignore or labeled baseball stupid.
Reply With Quote
  #65  
Old 01-06-2018, 06:32 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 8,220
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SI1020
Guys like Billy Pierce and especially Whitey Ford get hurt badly in WAR games because for some reason pitchers in their era just didn't get the big WAR totals.
The reason is because the floor for “replacement level” was much higher back then than it is nowadays. The difference between 16 and 30 teams, between 4 and 5-man rotations, and the addition of the DH created a situation where most teams’ #3 starters today wouldn’t have even sniffed the majors in the 1950s, and those guys don’t even represent today’s zero-WAR floor.
Reply With Quote
  #66  
Old 01-06-2018, 08:19 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 19,105
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
The reason is because the floor for “replacement level” was much higher back then than it is nowadays. The difference between 16 and 30 teams, between 4 and 5-man rotations, and the addition of the DH created a situation where most teams’ #3 starters today wouldn’t have even sniffed the majors in the 1950s, and those guys don’t even represent today’s zero-WAR floor.
At the risk of opening a massive can of worms, I’ll just say that I don’t buy that a “replacement level player” from the 1950s would be better than such a player today. The US population is much larger. MLB draws from a global talent pool. Year-round training, modern medicine and kinesiology, and diet, mean that today’s players are much more finely-tuned and well-informed about how to improve their games. Technology, math, science, and sabermetrics have revolutionized how players train, practice, and prepare. As a result, the level of competition is so much higher now.
__________________
The universe is the practical joke of the General at the expense of the Particular, quoth Frater Perdurabo, and laughed. The disciples nearest him wept, seeing the Universal Sorrow. Others laughed, seeing the Universal Joke. Others wept. Others laughed. Others wept because they couldn't see the Joke, and others laughed lest they should be thought not to see the Joke. But though FRATER laughed openly, he wept secretly; and really he neither laughed nor wept. Nor did he mean what he said.
Reply With Quote
  #67  
Old 01-07-2018, 12:48 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 8,220
Default

Yes, if you threw today’s players in a time machine and took them back to the 1950s, they would flat-out dominate. That’s not what this is about. This is about the numbers being put up by replacement-level players today vs. the numbers put up by the replacement-level players of the past. An ERA pushing 5.00 would be a sure-fire ticket out of a starting rotation in those days. Nowadays, guys like that take the ball every fifth day with some frequency.
Reply With Quote
  #68  
Old 01-07-2018, 10:10 AM
blurry blurry is offline
WSI Regular
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 64
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Yes, if you threw today’s players in a time machine and took them back to the 1950s, they would flat-out dominate. That’s not what this is about. This is about the numbers being put up by replacement-level players today vs. the numbers put up by the replacement-level players of the past. An ERA pushing 5.00 would be a sure-fire ticket out of a starting rotation in those days. Nowadays, guys like that take the ball every fifth day with some frequency.
I agree. I also think if you brought a player like Billy Pierce from the past and gave him access with modern day training/medicine, he'd perform at a very high level.
Reply With Quote
  #69  
Old 01-07-2018, 11:15 AM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Deep in the heart of Dixie
Posts: 5,307
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blurry View Post
I agree. I also think if you brought a player like Billy Pierce from the past and gave him access with modern day training/medicine, he'd perform at a very high level.
Exactly. You can only judge a player on what he did in his time against the opposition he faced. It doesn't mean **** if John Danks was bigger and stronger than Whitey Ford. A Babe Ruth or a Dick Butkus today would be 3 or so inches taller, that much stronger and have access to medicine, nutrition and technology that far surpasses what was available in their day. Of course athletes today are bigger, faster, stronger and often more athletic than their predecessors. It is ever so frustrating to argue these issues.
Reply With Quote
  #70  
Old 01-07-2018, 11:42 AM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Deep in the heart of Dixie
Posts: 5,307
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
The reason is because the floor for “replacement level” was much higher back then than it is nowadays. The difference between 16 and 30 teams, between 4 and 5-man rotations, and the addition of the DH created a situation where most teams’ #3 starters today wouldn’t have even sniffed the majors in the 1950s, and those guys don’t even represent today’s zero-WAR floor.
That's very interesting and I thank you for the information. However, the vast majority fans just look at the raw numbers.
Reply With Quote
  #71  
Old 01-07-2018, 01:10 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 19,105
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
An ERA pushing 5.00 would be a sure-fire ticket out of a starting rotation in those days. Nowadays, guys like that take the ball every fifth day with some frequency.
I completely understand and agree. But there are lots of things that go into a pitcher’s ERA that are outside of his control, some of which have to do with how the game is played, which is at least partially connected to the quality of the players.

Pitchers then weren’t routinely throwing 95 MPH; hitters weren’t attempting to crush the ball but rather put it into play - with some degree of bat control - ideally toward the opponent’s weakest fielder or between fielders, or specifically toward a general area of the field to advance or score a base runner. Fewer runs were scored, which meant ERAs were lower.

I think we’re in agreement that, when comparing players from different eras, even WAR hasn’t yet been perfected.
Reply With Quote
  #72  
Old 01-07-2018, 02:43 PM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Deep in the heart of Dixie
Posts: 5,307
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
I completely understand and agree. But there are lots of things that go into a pitcher’s ERA that are outside of his control, some of which have to do with how the game is played, which is at least partially connected to the quality of the players.

Pitchers then weren’t routinely throwing 95 MPH; hitters weren’t attempting to crush the ball but rather put it into play - with some degree of bat control - ideally toward the opponent’s weakest fielder or between fielders, or specifically toward a general area of the field to advance or score a base runner. Fewer runs were scored, which meant ERAs were lower.

I think we’re in agreement that, when comparing players from different eras, even WAR hasn’t yet been perfected.
It can't be perfected because it is always going to be highly subjective in its construct. Look I get that one of the great allures of baseball is the stats. I've said it before many times, even in my 50s and 60s childhood and youth it was known when looking at stats that you had to use nuance and depth in judging the merits of players. Not to hijack but now that they are doing bat speeds, exit velocities and launch angles maybe we'll finally get a more accurate read on defensive skill. You can do so many things with the technology in determining real range and speed in getting to a batted ball. I look forward to that as I think DWAR is by far the weakest link in the WAR trilogy.
Reply With Quote
  #73  
Old 01-10-2018, 12:13 PM
blurry blurry is offline
WSI Regular
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 64
Default

Not a conventional signing, but Dave Cameron is leaving Fangraphs to work for the San Diego Padres https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-...i-would-write/
Reply With Quote
  #74  
Old 01-10-2018, 12:23 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
WSI Guru
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Chubbuck, Idaho
Posts: 31,636
Default

According to Jon Morosi on Twitter; Cole going to the Astros is "imminent."

Good...better Houston than the Yankees.
Reply With Quote
  #75  
Old 01-10-2018, 12:26 PM
blurry blurry is offline
WSI Regular
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 64
Default

Just saw that. I wonder what the return will be like. Cole's HR/9 jumped last season.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



Forum Jump




All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:58 AM.




Design by: Michelle

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Site-specific editorial/photos Copyright ©2001 - 2008 White Sox Interactive. All rights reserved.