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  #1  
Old 12-31-2017, 06:06 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Default The new “buyer beware” vibe governing MLB free agency

Joel Sherman recently wrote a column summarizing the volatile nature of the 14 free agents who have signed contracts eclipsing $20 million AAV and $100 million total dollars.

https://nypost.com/2017/12/28/have-t...tove-freeze-2/

Some interesting points:

4 of the 14 players (A-Rod, Josh Hamilton, Prince Fielder, and Carl Crawford) never even took the field in 2017.

Sherman believes that the rise of analytics has created an environment where the previous mantra of “All it takes is one stupid GM to overpay” is largely eliminated.
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  #2  
Old 12-31-2017, 06:55 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Joel Sherman recently wrote a column summarizing the volatile nature of the 14 free agents who have signed contracts eclipsing $20 million AAV and $100 million total dollars.

https://nypost.com/2017/12/28/have-t...tove-freeze-2/

Some interesting points:

4 of the 14 players (A-Rod, Josh Hamilton, Prince Fielder, and Carl Crawford) never even took the field in 2017.

Sherman believes that the rise of analytics has created an environment where the previous mantra of “All it takes is one stupid GM to overpay” is largely eliminated.
Which is why I am not a fan of those mega-deals. They almost always end up badly for the team. Maybe a guy like Machado who is so young but even then ... injuries happen.
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  #3  
Old 01-01-2018, 11:22 AM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Which is why I am not a fan of those mega-deals. They almost always end up badly for the team. Maybe a guy like Machado who is so young but even then ... injuries happen.
I think that most front offices are starting to realize that now. It seems like teams are less likely to try and build through free agency, but will use free agency to plug a few holes. The name of the game now is to develop young talent and lock them up long term.

I would like to see Sherman's idea of free agency beginning after 4 years of major league service be implemented though.
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Old 01-01-2018, 12:12 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Thank you, sabermetrics! You never cease to provide us with joy and enlightenment.
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  #5  
Old 01-01-2018, 05:43 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
I think that most front offices are starting to realize that now. It seems like teams are less likely to try and build through free agency, but will use free agency to plug a few holes. The name of the game now is to develop young talent and lock them up long term.

I would like to see Sherman's idea of free agency beginning after 4 years of major league service be implemented though.
While I would really dislike its impact on a teams ability to build from within, in the interest of fairness to the players I'd be ok with that too. One thing I have really liked about the Hahn era so far as been early, long term contracts for guys like Sale, Quintana, Eaton, and Anderson. If you can identify and lock in your key young guys before they hit that 4 years that, and emphasis on a strong farm system, is the way to build your team in my opinion.
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Old 01-02-2018, 05:24 PM
Foulke You Foulke You is offline
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I think that free agent position players that don't play a premium position have definitely dropped in price. A big power guy like Edwin Encarnacion would have broken the bank had he been a free agent 7 or 8 years ago. Instead, he had to settle for a 3 year deal from Cleveland last offseason.

I feel that the price of free agent pitching remains pretty lofty though. High leverage late inning relievers are all getting big contracts. Starting pitchers like Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer, and David Price all cashed in on a favorable free agent market in recent years. It's still hard to develop pitching and contenders with bare farm systems often find themselves in a bind where they almost have to spend on one of those guys or risk having a gaping hole in the rotation that costs you a playoff berth. I think that Scott Boras excels at taking advantage of those teams. It will be interesting to see what Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish get on the open market this year. If both of them sign below perceived market value, then we are truly seeing a full market correction.
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Old 01-02-2018, 05:58 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by Foulke You View Post
I think that free agent position players that don't play a premium position have definitely dropped in price. A big power guy like Edwin Encarnacion would have broken the bank had he been a free agent 7 or 8 years ago. Instead, he had to settle for a 3 year deal from Cleveland last offseason.

I feel that the price of free agent pitching remains pretty lofty though. High leverage late inning relievers are all getting big contracts. Starting pitchers like Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer, and David Price all cashed in on a favorable free agent market in recent years. It's still hard to develop pitching and contenders with bare farm systems often find themselves in a bind where they almost have to spend on one of those guys or risk having a gaping hole in the rotation that costs you a playoff berth. I think that Scott Boras excels at taking advantage of those teams. It will be interesting to see what Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish get on the open market this year. If both of them sign below perceived market value, then we are truly seeing a full market correction.
Maybe this off season is a silent referendum on Scott Boras?
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  #8  
Old 01-02-2018, 07:14 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
I would like to see Sherman's idea of free agency beginning after 4 years of major league service be implemented though.
That would result in tons of 10 year deals and would have less team friendly deals.

These players are getting more than taken care of with the team friendly deals like Sale and Q did.
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  #9  
Old 01-03-2018, 12:13 PM
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DumpJerry DumpJerry is offline
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Maybe this off season is a silent referendum on Scott Boras?
Doubt it. Every year, his clients are the last ones to sign since their price goes up each time another FA at the same position signs a contract. It's all supply and demand. The demand is always there, as the supply shrinks, the price goes up. Basic econ.
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  #10  
Old 01-03-2018, 02:09 PM
Andrew C White Andrew C White is offline
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Supposedly two different 7 year offers on the table for Eric Hosmer.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/...ree-agent.html

I wonder if some teams are just saving up for next year.
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  #11  
Old 01-03-2018, 02:16 PM
jcw218 jcw218 is online now
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Originally Posted by Andrew C White View Post
Supposedly two different 7 year offers on the table for Eric Hosmer.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/...ree-agent.html

I wonder if some teams are just saving up for next year.
That's probably a major factor and another major factor is the traditionally high spenders are not spending as much this year and bringing their payrolls below the 197 million tax penalty threshold, thus resetting the penalty that they have to pay the next time they do go over.
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