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  #31  
Old 03-27-2014, 04:39 AM
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doublem23 doublem23 is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
The fact that you can make a statistical argument to show that Adam Dunn helped the White Sox last year when it was apparent to anyone watching the team that he hurt the team (offensively as well as defensively) speaks to how meaningless, or at least deceptive, the statistics can be.
No surprise here to see you failing to either thoroughly read or bother to comprehend my post but if you did you'd note that I never made any mention of his defense because I agree he stinks in the field.

But the bottom line is that Dunn was still the most effective offensive player the Sox had all last season. This of course, speaks to how wretchedly terrible the Sox were as an offensive unit last season. You're free to go around pretending like it's not true, but it sadly is. Konerko was worse. Beckham was worse. Viciedo was worse. De Aza was worse. Alexei was worse. Flowers was worse. Keppinger was worse. The argument here isn't Adam Dunn vs. AL Average DH, the argument is Adam Dunn vs. the rest of the miserable stiffs in this organization, the Sox clearly had no other player last year of putting up even league average offensive production. I'm not suggesting they would have plummeted and made up the 12 games they had on Houston for worst record in the league, but take Dunn away from the team last year and they would have surely been worse. Numbers don't lie.
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  #32  
Old 03-27-2014, 05:29 AM
MarksBrokenFoot MarksBrokenFoot is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
No surprise here to see you failing to either thoroughly read or bother to comprehend my post but if you did you'd note that I never made any mention of his defense because I agree he stinks in the field.

But the bottom line is that Dunn was still the most effective offensive player the Sox had all last season. This of course, speaks to how wretchedly terrible the Sox were as an offensive unit last season. You're free to go around pretending like it's not true, but it sadly is. Konerko was worse. Beckham was worse. Viciedo was worse. De Aza was worse. Alexei was worse. Flowers was worse. Keppinger was worse. The argument here isn't Adam Dunn vs. AL Average DH, the argument is Adam Dunn vs. the rest of the miserable stiffs in this organization, the Sox clearly had no other player last year of putting up even league average offensive production. I'm not suggesting they would have plummeted and made up the 12 games they had on Houston for worst record in the league, but take Dunn away from the team last year and they would have surely been worse. Numbers don't lie.
Alexei, Gordon, and De Aza were all better than Dunn last year if you go by oWar. Alexei is easily the best position player on the team. Otherwise, I agree with you, Dunn made that particular team better, but on a dollar per WAR basis, he's awful.
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  #33  
Old 03-27-2014, 06:36 AM
TDog TDog is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
No surprise here to see you failing to either thoroughly read or bother to comprehend my post but if you did you'd note that I never made any mention of his defense because I agree he stinks in the field.

But the bottom line is that Dunn was still the most effective offensive player the Sox had all last season. This of course, speaks to how wretchedly terrible the Sox were as an offensive unit last season. You're free to go around pretending like it's not true, but it sadly is. Konerko was worse. Beckham was worse. Viciedo was worse. De Aza was worse. Alexei was worse. Flowers was worse. Keppinger was worse. The argument here isn't Adam Dunn vs. AL Average DH, the argument is Adam Dunn vs. the rest of the miserable stiffs in this organization, the Sox clearly had no other player last year of putting up even league average offensive production. I'm not suggesting they would have plummeted and made up the 12 games they had on Houston for worst record in the league, but take Dunn away from the team last year and they would have surely been worse. Numbers don't lie.

Dunn was a supremely ineffective offensive player in 2013. Anyone paying attention to the White Sox could see that. Fans who watched the team know that a statistics-based argument to the contrary is meaningless because they know what they saw. Using numbers to argue that he was not ineffective, or even less ineffective than other players on the White Sox actually does show that numbers sometimes do lie.

Or at least it shows you are using the wrong numbers.

Last edited by TDog; 03-27-2014 at 06:55 AM.
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  #34  
Old 03-27-2014, 06:49 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by BainesHOF View Post
Leave it to Konerko to be more realistic than many here. He just said on the Score he expects to be on the bench on Opening Day.

The Sox are not the Cubs. It's not about being cute. Play every game to win, not to pander.

If you're in favor of junking the game plan already on Opening Day, let's go ahead and start Minnie Minoso in left. That would entertain the crowd, too.
Opening Day is in 4 days and we haven't named a closer and Tyler Flowers is our starting catcher- we're junking 2014- and I don't see how PK starting instead of the piece of crap Adam Dunn is being "cute" or pandering-
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  #35  
Old 03-27-2014, 06:52 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by Brian26 View Post
Exactly. And...if you're going strictly by the numbers, the two-headed monster of PK and Dunn vs. LHP/RHP respectively in 2013 put up nice numbers. I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out if both guys stay healthy. It's all a moot point if Konerko's wrist goes south or Dunn becomes Greg Luzinski 1984, if he hasn't already.
Luzinski 1984 would be an upgrade for Dunn
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  #36  
Old 03-27-2014, 06:54 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
No surprise here to see you failing to either thoroughly read or bother to comprehend my post but if you did you'd note that I never made any mention of his defense because I agree he stinks in the field.

But the bottom line is that Dunn was still the most effective offensive player the Sox had all last season. This of course, speaks to how wretchedly terrible the Sox were as an offensive unit last season. You're free to go around pretending like it's not true, but it sadly is. Konerko was worse. Beckham was worse. Viciedo was worse. De Aza was worse. Alexei was worse. Flowers was worse. Keppinger was worse. The argument here isn't Adam Dunn vs. AL Average DH, the argument is Adam Dunn vs. the rest of the miserable stiffs in this organization, the Sox clearly had no other player last year of putting up even league average offensive production. I'm not suggesting they would have plummeted and made up the 12 games they had on Houston for worst record in the league, but take Dunn away from the team last year and they would have surely been worse. Numbers don't lie.
This thread is not about 2013- it's about 2014-
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  #37  
Old 03-27-2014, 07:18 AM
amsteel amsteel is offline
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  #38  
Old 03-27-2014, 08:27 AM
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Originally Posted by MarksBrokenFoot View Post
Alexei, Gordon, and De Aza were all better than Dunn last year if you go by oWar. Alexei is easily the best position player on the team. Otherwise, I agree with you, Dunn made that particular team better, but on a dollar per WAR basis, he's awful.
Oh definitely, I'm not trying to say Dunn's not a sunk cost at this point, or that he's anywhere near what an AL team should be expecting offensively from its DH, I'm just saying, this idea that if the Sox had just released Dunn before the start of the 2013 season that they would have somehow been a better team is just not a mathematically defensible position. You wanna consult the oracles and break out the chicken bones, that's fine, you know, I can't argue with that. Dunn's 607 DH PAs would have been replaced by the collection of stiffs I mentioned earlier, which would have easily made a dent in the already paltry 598 runs the Sox produced last year.
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  #39  
Old 03-27-2014, 08:31 AM
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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
If Dunn wasn't around, they would have had 15 million to spend on actual decent baseball players.
That's a whole different debate, of course the $15 M that Dunn is making could be spend much more wisely, I don't think anyone would argue that point, but there is a slew of posts in this thread that seem to suggest the Sox would have been better off last season just cutting Adam his paychecks and telling him to stay home. That's less true.
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  #40  
Old 03-27-2014, 09:59 AM
MISoxfan MISoxfan is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
Dunn was a supremely ineffective offensive player in 2013. Anyone paying attention to the White Sox could see that. Fans who watched the team know that a statistics-based argument to the contrary is meaningless because they know what they saw. Using numbers to argue that he was not ineffective, or even less ineffective than other players on the White Sox actually does show that numbers sometimes do lie.

Or at least it shows you are using the wrong numbers.
This is practically the definition of confirmation bias. Adam Dunn was among the top 3 full-time bats the White Sox had. Considering he was a DH making 15 million and the top 3 bats the White Sox have aren't even league average this isn't a ringing endorsement.

Rios and Garcia were both better, but not on the team for the entire season. A case could be made for Viciedo and De Aza with a bit of cherry picking. Nobody else was even close.
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  #41  
Old 03-27-2014, 10:36 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by MISoxfan View Post
This is practically the definition of confirmation bias. Adam Dunn was among the top 3 full-time bats the White Sox had. Considering he was a DH making 15 million and the top 3 bats the White Sox have aren't even league average this isn't a ringing endorsement.

Rios and Garcia were both better, but not on the team for the entire season. A case could be made for Viciedo and De Aza with a bit of cherry picking. Nobody else was even close.
Can we PLEASE stop analyzing 2013? Need to move on!
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  #42  
Old 03-27-2014, 12:02 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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This is practically the definition of confirmation bias.
BUT BUT BUT I saw what I wanted to....oh, wait, I mean, I know what I saw!
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  #43  
Old 03-27-2014, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
Opening Day is in 4 days and we haven't named a closer and Tyler Flowers is our starting catcher- we're junking 2014- and I don't see how PK starting instead of the piece of crap Adam Dunn is being "cute" or pandering-
Agreed. I won't like it if they start PK in place of Abreu, who should be playing 1B every day. But I fail to see the harm in sitting Dunn down to start Konerko on his last Opening Day. It isn't like Dunn is some sort of dynamic force who is essential to the lineup. Most everyone is counting the days until he's no longer wearing a Sox uniform.
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  #44  
Old 03-30-2014, 11:06 AM
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For the first time since 1998, Paul Konerko won't start on Opening Day for the White Sox. http://sun-tim.es/1f9TJdv

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  #45  
Old 03-30-2014, 12:53 PM
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BUT BUT BUT I saw what I wanted to....oh, wait, I mean, I know what I saw!
I didn't want to see Adam Dunn hit less than .200 in his career with the White Sox while striking out in more than a third of his at bats. But that's what I saw. If your batting average is less than .200 and you strike out in less than one -third of your at bats, you are hurting the team far more than you are helping it, unless you are a defensive wizard or a pretty good pitcher.

If you can find a stat that shows that a player is strong offensively while hitting less than .220 and striking out in numbers unprecedented among everyday hitters in the history of major league baseball, the bias, even prejudice is in finding the stat that tells you such a thing. If you watch a lot of baseball, you shouldn't need stats to tell you who looks good and who doesn't. Anyone who has watched the White Sox for the last three seasons, who isn't biased by a strained statistical interpretation of what they saw, can see Dunn has hurt the team offensively. Most everyone who follows the White Sox is counting the days until he is no longer in a Sox uniform.

That being said, Dunn has played in three White Sox openers and homered in two of them. Opening day is just one game, and, statistically, a small sample size.
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