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  #211  
Old 12-18-2013, 10:57 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by shingo10 View Post
Boondock are you saying that every team has been brainwashed into having a closer's role? How often do starters hurl complete games anymore? The bullpen has become especially important and especially the closer.
Speaking of being brainwashed...
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  #212  
Old 12-18-2013, 10:58 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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There is no need to make it complicated....saves are important. End of story.
In fantasy baseball, absolutely.
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  #213  
Old 12-19-2013, 12:03 AM
TDog TDog is offline
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Yet you are the biggest fan of the win stat I have ever seen. Go figure.
Stats tell you where you've been. They don't mean anything if you don't win. Except in a fantasy league.

I have always believed that if I am looking back at my team's season, I would rather have a starting pitcher with 20 wins and an ERA of 3.50 than a starting pitcher with 10 wins and an ERA of 2.50. I shouldn't have to apologize for that. I don't do fantasy baseball, and having spent half a century as a White Sox fan, I value winning over style points.

And if my team has a full-time closer, closing more than two-thirds of my team's save-situation games, I would rather look back on my team's season with a closer who had 40 saves and an ERA of 3.50 than a closer with a 20 saves and an ERA of 2.50.

I read and hear that there is a mentality to closing that not all relievers have (although teams used to develop great starting pitchers who possessed it). Jesse Crain, for example, has more blown saves than saves in his career. Of course, most of those blown saves came in the seventh and eighth innings, but I've read that this fact was true even if you only consider game-ending situations. I would rather have a bullpen where three or four relievers could close in save situations depending on the matchups, but the save rule has pretty much put an end to that.

I don't like managers making decisions based upon the rules of the save stat.
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  #214  
Old 12-19-2013, 08:15 AM
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doublem23 doublem23 is offline
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I have always believed that if I am looking back at my team's season, I would rather have a starting pitcher with 20 wins and an ERA of 3.50 than a starting pitcher with 10 wins and an ERA of 2.50. I shouldn't have to apologize for that. I don't do fantasy baseball, and having spent half a century as a White Sox fan, I value winning over style points.
EDIT - OK, nobody is asking you to apologize for HOOOOW your team wins; basically what you've said here is that you prefer to root for a team that wins 95 games with a good offense and mediocre pitching staff over a team that wins 75 games with a good pitching staff and a ****ty offense. Having just spent a year watching the 2013 White Sox, I'm sure we can all relate. The idea that wins are meaningless is ONLY IN THE CONTEXT of comparing two, INDIVIDUAL pitchers to one another. So yes, while we can all agree that we'd much rather root for the team that wins more games, we can also agree that if given the choice, we'd take the 10-game winner, 2.50 ERA pitcher over the 20 W/3.50 ERA pitcher because it's extremely likely that the difference in wins has nothing to do with their individual abilities, but rather things that are completely out of their control; their offenses, their bullpens, etc. That's why people don't give a **** about wins AS AN INDIVIDUAL STAT FOR RATING PITCHERS.

Your argument is basically that you'd rather have Jeremy Guthrie and his 15 wins and 4.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.7 K/9 IP etc. over Chris Sale and his 11 wins and 3.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.5 K/IP becasue, WINS... Guthrie is obviously a 36% better pitcher than Sale because he won 36% more games than he did. And anyone who would argue that would be a lunatic.
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  #215  
Old 12-19-2013, 08:34 AM
SephClone89 SephClone89 is offline
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EDIT - OK, nobody is asking you to apologize for HOOOOW your team wins; basically what you've said here is that you prefer to root for a team that wins 95 games with a good offense and mediocre pitching staff over a team that wins 75 games with a good pitching staff and a ****ty offense. Having just spent a year watching the 2013 White Sox, I'm sure we can all relate. The idea that wins are meaningless is ONLY IN THE CONTEXT of comparing two, INDIVIDUAL pitchers to one another. So yes, while we can all agree that we'd much rather root for the team that wins more games, we can also agree that if given the choice, we'd take the 10-game winner, 2.50 ERA pitcher over the 20 W/3.50 ERA pitcher because it's extremely likely that the difference in wins has nothing to do with their individual abilities, but rather things that are completely out of their control; their offenses, their bullpens, etc. That's why people don't give a **** about wins AS AN INDIVIDUAL STAT FOR RATING PITCHERS.

Your argument is basically that you'd rather have Jeremy Guthrie and his 15 wins and 4.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.7 K/9 IP etc. over Chris Sale and his 11 wins and 3.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.5 K/IP becasue, WINS... Guthrie is obviously a 36% better pitcher than Sale because he won 36% more games than he did. And anyone who would argue that would be a lunatic.
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  #216  
Old 12-19-2013, 08:37 AM
SephClone89 SephClone89 is offline
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Stats tell you where you've been. They don't mean anything if you don't win. Except in a fantasy league.
...What?
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  #217  
Old 12-19-2013, 08:45 AM
Boondock Saint Boondock Saint is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
EDIT - OK, nobody is asking you to apologize for HOOOOW your team wins; basically what you've said here is that you prefer to root for a team that wins 95 games with a good offense and mediocre pitching staff over a team that wins 75 games with a good pitching staff and a ****ty offense. Having just spent a year watching the 2013 White Sox, I'm sure we can all relate. The idea that wins are meaningless is ONLY IN THE CONTEXT of comparing two, INDIVIDUAL pitchers to one another. So yes, while we can all agree that we'd much rather root for the team that wins more games, we can also agree that if given the choice, we'd take the 10-game winner, 2.50 ERA pitcher over the 20 W/3.50 ERA pitcher because it's extremely likely that the difference in wins has nothing to do with their individual abilities, but rather things that are completely out of their control; their offenses, their bullpens, etc. That's why people don't give a **** about wins AS AN INDIVIDUAL STAT FOR RATING PITCHERS.

Your argument is basically that you'd rather have Jeremy Guthrie and his 15 wins and 4.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.7 K/9 IP etc. over Chris Sale and his 11 wins and 3.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.5 K/IP becasue, WINS... Guthrie is obviously a 36% better pitcher than Sale because he won 36% more games than he did. And anyone who would argue that would be a lunatic.
Yeah, that **** drives me nuts. That's like saying that, as a hitter, you'd rather face Chris Sale than anybody that Boston can throw out there, because man, can those guys ever hit a ball.
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  #218  
Old 12-19-2013, 09:13 AM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
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Round and round it goes. This stat doesn't mean anything but that one does. If you don't agree with me then you're a moron and I'm Einstein. One of the great allures of baseball to me is the stats. Yes even in the late 50's we knew that a pitcher's W-L record and or a fielder's fielding PCT. could be a deceiving number. I really don't care all that much for the saber movement, while being impressed with Bill James and his knowledge of the game and its history. I look at a players stats holistically or else at least I try to. On offense what are you doing to create runs. Pitching and defense what are you doing to prevent them. Take into consideration that not every hitter has power, and not every pitcher has blazing speed, among other things. I'm grateful for sites like baseball reference that allow me to pore over a multitude of stats and old box scores. Yes I'd certainly take Chris Sale over Jeremy Guthrie hands down last year. I still look at ALL the stats, including W-L record.
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  #219  
Old 12-19-2013, 09:15 AM
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Chez Chez is offline
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I do think there is some truth to the old saw,"the last three outs are the toughest to get." It may not be supportable by statistical analysis, but we've all seen pitchers who flourish as set-up guys, but can't close.
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  #220  
Old 12-19-2013, 09:17 AM
SephClone89 SephClone89 is offline
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Originally Posted by SI1020 View Post
Round and round it goes. This stat doesn't mean anything but that one does. If you don't agree with me then you're a moron and I'm Einstein. One of the great allures of baseball to me is the stats. Yes even in the late 50's we knew that a pitcher's W-L record and or a fielder's fielding PCT. could be a deceiving number. I really don't care all that much for the saber movement, while being impressed with Bill James and his knowledge of the game and its history. I look at a players stats holistically or else at least I try to. On offense what are you doing to create runs. Pitching and defense what are you doing to prevent them. Take into consideration that not every hitter has power, and not every pitcher has blazing speed, among other things. I'm grateful for sites like baseball reference that allow me to pore over a multitude of stats and old box scores. Yes I'd certainly take Chris Sale over Jeremy Guthrie hands down last year. I still look at ALL the stats, including W-L record.
While I appreciate your perspective...

When you have all of those other numbers at your disposal, there's no point looking at W-L record. There's nothing that it can tell you that other stats don't.
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  #221  
Old 12-19-2013, 09:58 AM
Moses_Scurry Moses_Scurry is offline
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Wins tell you how the starting pitcher from team A pitched compared to the starting pitcher from team B during a specific game. That is why the stat was created, although when it was created, pitchers routinely pitched complete games, so it was much more unlikely that the bullpen could screw it up. With the exception of a couple outliers on both ends of the spectrum, I believe that most MLB offenses are within variance of each other. If the conditions on game day are rainy, cold, etc. then both SPs will likely do well and have low ERA's for that day. But if pitcher A gets the win, then it tells you that he pitched better than pitcher B who got the loss. If it is hot and the ball is jumping, both pitchers will likely give up runs and have worse stats, but the pitcher who does better will get the W.

In my opinion, a pitcher's W-L % was a more useful stat in the old days when starters regularly went the distance. Now it is so much more likely that the bullpen will blow it and give the pitcher a ND or even a loss. Over a long career, a pitcher with a good W-L% is generally regarded as a good pitcher, and a pitcher with a bad W-L% is regarded as a bad pitcher, regardless of the team(s) they played for. It is a way to separate good pitching careers from bad pitching careers, but on a season-season basis it's not very helpful.
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  #222  
Old 12-19-2013, 10:52 AM
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What's this thread about again?
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  #223  
Old 12-19-2013, 11:44 AM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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What's this thread about again?
Exactly.

I am about to embark on a rant, so please forgive me:

My whole take on stats and sabermetrics is that every stat is pretty much worthless on its own and that every stat is worth considering when looking at the grand scheme of things.

For a pitcher, wins and saves are pretty worthless stats in and of themselves but they are not completely worthless. If a guy has 40 saves with a sub two ERA and low WHIP, hey, that's pretty impressive. Conversely, if a guy is like Joe Borowski and has 40 saves with a 5 something ERA, that's not so impressive. The same thing is true with wins, but I will say that I think there is something telling about a guy who is capable of winning a lot of games or saving a lot of games regardless of what his other numbers are. It might not be saying much but it says something. Maybe it's just that he is on a good team.

One of the weaknesses of sabermetrics is that while they were created to challenge conventional wisdom, I think that they have created a new conventional wisdom that some people are as enslaved by as others were/are by old school conventional wisdom. I also think that some devotees of sabermetrics shout louder than others, which makes it more tempting to ignore/dismiss them.

Every stat is just a tool at understanding the game and I think too often people get bogged down in understanding one aspect of it and lose sight of the whole picture.
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  #224  
Old 12-19-2013, 11:49 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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No one is taking into account anyone's TWTW

In terms of saves and mentality, it does take a certain mentality to bounce back. One thing I always heard about Reed that I liked was that if he blew he save, he was very upset in the locker room, but came to the ballpark the next day wanting the ball again. Thats the attitude a closer needs. It does not make him exclusive, plenty of journeyman relievers end up being good closers for a short run. It happens all the time. The number of elite closers in the game is down significantly.
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  #225  
Old 12-19-2013, 11:57 AM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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No one is taking into account anyone's TWTW

In terms of saves and mentality, it does take a certain mentality to bounce back. One thing I always heard about Reed that I liked was that if he blew he save, he was very upset in the locker room, but came to the ballpark the next day wanting the ball again. Thats the attitude a closer needs. It does not make him exclusive, plenty of journeyman relievers end up being good closers for a short run. It happens all the time. The number of elite closers in the game is down significantly.
You know, it was unfortunate that Hawk was the spokesman for the counter-sabermetrics argument and that he also phrased it as "the will to win" BUT I think there is something to the overall point that sometimes the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Why that happens, whether it's will, chemistry or whatever cliche you want to throw at it, is hard to explain but I don't think it can be so easily disregarded as being a "fluke." Flukes are exceedingly rare over the course 162 games and the post-season.
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