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  #136  
Old 11-19-2013, 09:03 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Forget his age and his left handedness. When do guys with no plus pitches have long careers as elite pitchers? I know, everyone hates when I say the reason is he's deceptive because it's not quantifiable in the numbers sense, but he's the most deceptive pitcher in baseball and that's why he's succeeding more than anything else he brings to the table. Traditionally, that doesn't last. At least not at an elite level. There has to be something more.
When deciding an a pitcher- age and LH vs. RH are pretty big factors to consider.

I shared your concerns about Quintana in his first season- but he's now been around the league for 2 full seasons- and he's improving- not regressing- so I think you're over weighting the whole "deception" thing.
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  #137  
Old 11-19-2013, 09:13 AM
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Would you want to build around R.A. Dickey?

Look, I don't want to take away from what Quintana's accomplished. But I also don't want to see the White Sox make the mistake of counting on him long term. And I really would like them to dupe someone into paying for him like a high end starter.
Whose suggesting we build around Quintana? He's a supplementary piece of the future rotation around Chris Sale, who is arguably one of the 2-3 best pitchers in baseball right now.
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  #138  
Old 11-19-2013, 09:16 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Whose suggesting we build around Quintana? He's a supplementary piece of the future rotation around Chris Sale, who is arguably one of the 2-3 best pitchers in baseball right now.
Well if you're not building around him, trading him now makes sense. This is one of those instances where you will get back more for him than he's actually worth. And I don't believe he'll stay at his current level for even the duration of his arbitration years, so eventually he'll be paid more than he's worth and will lose his trade value.
  #139  
Old 11-19-2013, 09:37 AM
Moses_Scurry Moses_Scurry is offline
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I'm skeptical that they could get a good enough return to make it worth trading Quintana. He pretty much came out of nowhere two years ago. Nobody on here had any kind of hopes for him when he came up in '12. He has been pretty good for the Sox so far, but his numbers aren't so eye-popping that somebody will give up a huge haul for him. I definitely think there can be a trade that would make sense for us, but I'm not sure any teams will be willing to do it.
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  #140  
Old 11-19-2013, 10:11 AM
TaylorStSox TaylorStSox is offline
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Quintana's fastball is a plus pitch. If his success was over 2 months, I would understand the skepticism, but it's not. It's over 2 years. Baseball has always had successful LH starters that didn't have electric stuff.
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I'm not counting this homerun or his 3 RBI from today's game because of the game situation. I'm not counting his pinch hit solo homerun in a blowout win in Colorado. In my book, Crede has 2 less home runs than his statistics show, 4 less RBI, and one less walk (the one where he pinch hit for Uribe after coming in with a 3-0 count and taking one pitch).
  #141  
Old 11-19-2013, 10:59 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Whose suggesting we build around Quintana? He's a supplementary piece of the future rotation around Chris Sale, who is arguably one of the 2-3 best pitchers in baseball right now.
I figure our rotation for the next 3 years looks something like this:
  1. Sale
  2. TBD (need to develop or trade/sign)
  3. Quintana
  4. E. Johnson or Santiago
  5. Danks (untradeable contract)
Unless trading Quintana plugs a hole we have at 3rd/Catcher/CF- where we don't really have anyone on their way through the farm system- I'd keep him- vs. creating a hole in the rotation.

I wouldn't trade him a for a generic group of prospects- only if it solves one of those specific needs with a major league ready player.
  #142  
Old 11-19-2013, 12:53 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
I figure our rotation for the next 3 years looks something like this:
  1. Sale
  2. TBD (need to develop or trade/sign)
  3. Quintana
  4. E. Johnson or Santiago
  5. Danks (untradeable contract)
Unless trading Quintana plugs a hole we have at 3rd/Catcher/CF- where we don't really have anyone on their way through the farm system- I'd keep him- vs. creating a hole in the rotation.

I wouldn't trade him a for a generic group of prospects- only if it solves one of those specific needs with a major league ready player.
Ugh. I'd hope that if Quintana is here in three years, by then he'd be in the 4 or 5 slot.

Danks' deal is untradeable now. If he continues to not produce, he probably won't be in the rotation in three years. If he shows anything...he'll likely get moved (though we'd still pick up money). I don't think he'll be in our rotation in three years either way.
  #143  
Old 11-19-2013, 05:51 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Originally Posted by DonnieDarko View Post
Just due to the fact that the Sox have had Buerhle should tell you that it's possible to have a long career in the majors without a true plus pitch.
.
Buehrle had one of the best curve/change combos in the business, I wouldn't say he lacked a true plus pitch.
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  #144  
Old 11-19-2013, 06:12 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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If you want to go into some advanced metrics, Quintana actually had the 9th most valuable fastball in all of baseball according to Pitch f/x. I'd call that a pretty plus pitch.
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  #145  
Old 11-19-2013, 06:21 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by mzh View Post
If you want to go into some advanced metrics, Quintana actually had the 9th most valuable fastball in all of baseball according to Pitch f/x. I'd call that a pretty plus pitch.
It's the deception that causes it.

This is the big problem with taking data and analyzing it without understanding circumstance. You have a pitch that's effective, but his ability to control it at high velocity and good movement is not as effective as you would assume based on the Pitch f/x numbers, which are through the roof compared to what he's bringing. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, but it's not as good as the numbers indicate. And long-term it's not sustainable production...or at least it's usually not sustainable. Calling it a plus pitch isn't really true to what that actually means.
  #146  
Old 11-19-2013, 06:36 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
It's the deception that causes it.

This is the big problem with taking data and analyzing it without understanding circumstance. You have a pitch that's effective, but his ability to control it at high velocity and good movement is not as effective as you would assume based on the Pitch f/x numbers, which are through the roof compared to what he's bringing. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, but it's not as good as the numbers indicate. And long-term it's not sustainable production...or at least it's usually not sustainable. Calling it a plus pitch isn't really true to what that actually means.
Fair enough, but tell me exactly what about him throwing his fastball is deceptive? He has a little hitch at the top of his windup, he's not hiding the ball like Dontrelle Willis. Is that why you seem to think that it's not sustainable production? All of the empirical evidence is still against your point.

Last edited by mzh; 11-19-2013 at 06:50 PM.
  #147  
Old 11-19-2013, 07:16 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Fair enough, but tell me exactly what about him throwing his fastball is deceptive? He has a little hitch at the top of his windup, he's not hiding the ball like Dontrelle Willis. Is that why you seem to think that it's not sustainable production? All of the empirical evidence is still against your point.
It's his release point really. Most batters complain they don't see the ball out of his hand very well, making him seem a lot faster than he is. The reason this isn't sustainable is that over the course of dozens of at bats, individual hitters adjust, and the deception loses effectiveness over time. At that point, he'll be on the merit of his pitches themselves with those hitters...of which his fastball, physically, is a pretty average combination of velocity and movement. If that's his best pitch, he's not a mid-rotation starter. Now...that said, it's not a sure thing that hitters will catch on. There are scouts that say he's not only really good at hiding his ball, but that he's the best they've seen in years. So...there's a chance. I just wouldn't take that bet if we could get a ton for him now.
  #148  
Old 11-19-2013, 07:17 PM
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I keep coming in here looking for Konerko updates. Silly me!
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  #149  
Old 11-19-2013, 07:23 PM
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Doug Padilla ‏@ESPNChiSox
Hahn says White Sox should know by the Dec. 9-12 winter meetings if Konerko will be back or not.


Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien
Rick Hahn says trade talks have heated up lately with White Sox.

Hahn says he expects a decision to be made on Paul Konerko by winter meetings in a few weeks.





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  #150  
Old 11-20-2013, 07:29 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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I keep coming in here looking for Konerko updates. Silly me!
At least this hasn't turned into an Aaron Rowand or Brian Anderson thread.
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