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  #106  
Old 11-17-2013, 08:12 PM
CoopaLoop CoopaLoop is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
It's 4.04 in the second half, August 1st represents since the deadline.
No it was 4.04 after August 1st.

3.94 in the second half.
  #107  
Old 11-17-2013, 10:18 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
No it's 4.04 after August 1st, like I said. Why do you just make stuff up when anyone can verify it?
Or, you know, I made a mistake when calculating it by using his unearned runs. But two extra runs being counted or not belies the truth of the situation. Santiago was largely ineffective with no change in his pitching. He went from having amongst the best BA against to the worst without his pitches changing velocity or location. It's the beginning of the end for him being more than a borderline pitcher, short of learning to command his pitches significantly better...which is a stretch.
  #108  
Old 11-17-2013, 10:23 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Johnson was rated as a B or B- prospect, which indicates higher than 5th starter ceiling. I don't see how anyone can seriously claim he has a 5th starter ceiling. Santiago was rated C+ by Sickels, according to him "projects as 3rd or 4th starter if 3rd pitch develops." Danks was obviously rated higher than a fifth starter.

As for Quintana, I see what you mean now...
A grade of B or B- is subjective, as it's only one person's opinion (Sickels I'm assuming), and isn't relevant to ceiling, but rather a combination of ceiling and readiness. Sickels is notorious for rating guys higher that are ready (with a guy like Keith Law on the other end of the spectrum, valuing ceiling more). In general, though, you don't see guys of grade B becoming stars very often, and most guys would consider a B- startering pitcher prospect a 5/6 guy.

Sickels didn't say Santiago was a 3/4, he outlined a situation where he could become one. He probably also banked on him being able to control some of his pitches.
  #109  
Old 11-17-2013, 10:30 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Or, you know, I made a mistake when calculating it by using his unearned runs.
Yeah, but when it's a habit it starts to seem like you're just making up numbers, particularly after its corrected and you still claim the made up stat is right.
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  #110  
Old 11-17-2013, 10:31 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
A grade of B or B- is subjective, as it's only one person's opinion (Sickels I'm assuming), and isn't relevant to ceiling, but rather a combination of ceiling and readiness. Sickels is notorious for rating guys higher that are ready (with a guy like Keith Law on the other end of the spectrum, valuing ceiling more). In general, though, you don't see guys of grade B becoming stars very often, and most guys would consider a B- startering pitcher prospect a 5/6 guy.

Sickels didn't say Santiago was a 3/4, he outlined a situation where he could become one. He probably also banked on him being able to control some of his pitches.
Of course it's subjective, scouting reports, which you were calling for, are by definition are subjective...man you're hilarious.
  #111  
Old 11-17-2013, 10:44 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
You misread that, I don't consider Quintana a 5th starter, but I also expect him not to be on the team come opening day.

If you don't believe those other guys are 5th starter types, really nothing I'm going to say will convince you because you're already ignoring scouting reports and obviously have some other way of evaluating a players worth that doesn't take into account scouting.
Danks isn't a 5th starter. He's a 3 starter pitching poorly, mostly because of gopher balls. Johnson doesn't have a 5th starter ceiling.
Santiago - again we'll see. He struggles with walks and his K rate fell his last few starts. And don't forget our bullpen...after Jones, Reed and to be kind Lindstrom, those guys were rancid. Troncoso, Veal..it's impossible for us to have pitchers that bad again.
You really think the Sox will trade Quintana? For what - minor leaguers, or a hitter?
  #112  
Old 11-17-2013, 11:41 PM
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  #113  
Old 11-18-2013, 12:53 AM
TDog TDog is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Or, you know, I made a mistake when calculating it by using his unearned runs. But two extra runs being counted or not belies the truth of the situation. Santiago was largely ineffective with no change in his pitching. He went from having amongst the best BA against to the worst without his pitches changing velocity or location. It's the beginning of the end for him being more than a borderline pitcher, short of learning to command his pitches significantly better...which is a stretch.
Chris Sale finished July with an ERA of 2.69 and recorded an ERA of 3.72 for the rest of the season (correct me if my math is wrong), so obviously he doesn't have an elite future. Mike Trout only hit .281 after August 31 after hitting about 50 points higher over the prevous five months, so it's the beginning of the end for him.

Frankly, I thought your number discrpency was just a typo before you defended it and I assumed it was something you read on the Internet. But your analysis is where the humor lies.
  #114  
Old 11-18-2013, 01:32 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
Yeah, but when it's a habit it starts to seem like you're just making up numbers, particularly after its corrected and you still claim the made up stat is right.
Too hard for you to do the math and see where the error occurred? Maybe comment on the argument instead of trying to "get me".

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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
Of course it's subjective, scouting reports, which you were calling for, are by definition are subjective...man you're hilarious.
Most people wouldn't view a B- starter prospect as more than a 4/5/spot guy. When I say it's subjective, I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt. But quite a tremendous margin. My instinct is to say, no ****ing way because you're wrong 90% of the time with that argument.
  #115  
Old 11-18-2013, 01:36 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Danks isn't a 5th starter. He's a 3 starter pitching poorly, mostly because of gopher balls. Johnson doesn't have a 5th starter ceiling.
Santiago - again we'll see. He struggles with walks and his K rate fell his last few starts. And don't forget our bullpen...after Jones, Reed and to be kind Lindstrom, those guys were rancid. Troncoso, Veal..it's impossible for us to have pitchers that bad again.
You really think the Sox will trade Quintana? For what - minor leaguers, or a hitter?
Danks isn't a fifth starter, he's a guy that shouldn't be starting that's going to be in the fifth starter role because of the money he makes.

Santiago's K rate fell every month he pitched, but his pitch locations and velocity stayed the same. There's a really good piece on this...I think it was on BP...where they showed that Santiago wasn't regressing due to anything physical but is rather falling back to his abilities.

It's not impossible for us to have a bad pen again. What, you think we're going out and spending $30 million on a new pen?

Yes...I think they'll sell high on Quintana and find a taker. He's not as good as his year was last year, talent wise at least. He's a pretty good bet to regress at least a bit.
  #116  
Old 11-18-2013, 07:33 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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I think we're over analyzing Quintana- he's a 24 yo prospect- with 2 solid seasons under his belt- and he improved in 2013 vs. 2012.

ERA dropped from 3.76 to 3..51, while showing improved stamina going from 22 to 33 GS and reducing his WHIP from 1.35 to 1.22.

Seems like very solid progress for a young pitcher. I think he's a nice #3 starter- and only see evidence of steady progress vs. a fluke, "sell high" type of performance.
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  #117  
Old 11-18-2013, 07:35 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Yes...I think they'll sell high on Quintana and find a taker. He's not as good as his year was last year, talent wise at least. He's a pretty good bet to regress at least a bit.
Why?
  #118  
Old 11-18-2013, 10:36 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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I've never really been a fan because he doesn't have any elite pitches (and uses deception to succeed). You're right, he is a nice #3, but eventually he's going to get paid a lot of money. His stock will never be higher, it just makes sense to trade him now.




When no one can say anything negative without being painted in this way, it's embarrassing to other sox fans. It's downright childish. When other teams speak ill of our fan base, it's this kind of stuff that's at the heart of it.
I guess- but young, quality pitching under control for a few more years- is a great way to free up payroll to go after other holes where your farm system can't help (like 3rd base and catcher)-if we're trading 24 year old LHPs who have 2 solid seasons behind them- then we're in complete rebuild mode- and based on JR's and Hahn's comments over the past few days- that's not their strategy.
  #119  
Old 11-18-2013, 11:36 AM
SoxSpeed22 SoxSpeed22 is offline
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The White Sox have some young talent to work with, so they do not need a complete tear-down. A team like Houston did need a complete tear-down, because they didn't have young core pieces. Getting Garcia and Abreu and having good young pitching, is a nice core to work with. There are still more things to get done, but this is a decent start. Hopefully they will stock up on more young talent in the draft and internationally.
The jury is still out on what they are going to do with some of their pitchers, but there are arms to work with. After Dunn's contract ends, there will be more free salary.
  #120  
Old 11-18-2013, 12:04 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
I guess- but young, quality pitching under control for a few more years- is a great way to free up payroll to go after other holes where your farm system can't help (like 3rd base and catcher)-if we're trading 24 year old LHPs who have 2 solid seasons behind them- then we're in complete rebuild mode- and based on JR's and Hahn's comments over the past few days- that's not their strategy.
Based on their actions, I think they are in complete rebuild and not saying it. They dumped what they could and have put everything else out there. They've only been spending on prospects. It's pretty clear this is a rebuild.

Even if it wasn't a complete overhaul, Quintana will be in his second year of arbitration at the earliest the next time we're sniffing the division. And he's probably not the type of guy you want to pay long term. If you trade him now, you can get something fairly decent for him. Perhaps another lineup piece.
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