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  #91  
Old 11-16-2013, 07:11 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
No, it is like that. Or rather, it is EXACTLY that. Yeah, we've got one piece. But baseball is a team game where you need 22 -25 legitimate pieces, 10 - 15 at a very high level (depending on how good those top ones are). On top of that, there's very little in line of upcoming talent in the next few years. Depending on personal opinion, there are anywhere from 2 to 7 legitimate pieces on this squad for next year. Not only do we have THAT much to fix, we have more to fix than pretty much any other squad in baseball (considering the sad state of both our major league roster and our minor league system). We've made some good moves this off-season, but lets not act like we're not in line for another 90 loss season.
I will act like that because with competent defense, some bullpen depth and without the clowning on the basepaths and in the dugout (no way to fix that), this team wouldn't have lost 90 games.
And I don't agree that we are in the worst position in baseball because our starting pitching is better than 1/2 the teams in baseball.
If the Sox are subscribing to the BP/Keith Law philosophy that the Astros have it right, then the Sox should trade Sale and never should have signed that free agent.
Otherwise, I think this team can win 75-80 gams ball getting a defensive center fielder in here, signing a catcher like Salty, and signing another bullpen pitcher or 2. Another bat would help as well. More moves to come next year.
We can wait til the cows come home for the minors to produce an all star position player, but none is in sight. Most farm systems don't produce any on a regular basis either, no matter how can't miss those players are. A more productive farm system would give us some trade bait though, which we sorely lack.
  #92  
Old 11-16-2013, 07:45 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
I will act like that because with competent defense, some bullpen depth and without the clowning on the basepaths and in the dugout (no way to fix that), this team wouldn't have lost 90 games.
And I don't agree that we are in the worst position in baseball because our starting pitching is better than 1/2 the teams in baseball.
If the Sox are subscribing to the BP/Keith Law philosophy that the Astros have it right, then the Sox should trade Sale and never should have signed that free agent.
Otherwise, I think this team can win 75-80 gams ball getting a defensive center fielder in here, signing a catcher like Salty, and signing another bullpen pitcher or 2. Another bat would help as well. More moves to come next year.
We can wait til the cows come home for the minors to produce an all star position player, but none is in sight. Most farm systems don't produce any on a regular basis either, no matter how can't miss those players are.
Oh...so with competent defense (ie, several new, better players) and a good deep pen (i.e., several new, better players), we'd be able to win ten more ball games and just barely miss 90 losses. Brilliant analysis. You proved my point more than your own with that first part.

Our starting pitching is not better than half of baseball. I'm so tired of people mentioning that over and over trying their damnest to make it true. Sale and Quintana were among the best. Peavy kept the number high until he was traded. Santiago was phenomenal then fell apart without his peripherals taking a dive (meaning the league has seen his garbage enough to catch up). Axelrod had the same thing happen, only much sooner (because he has even worse stuff). And John Danks barely has an arm (and the numbers to prove it). Our minors are derelict. The guys we're showing off are all 5-6 ceiling guys like Santiago. Yeah...it's nice to have some depth at least somewhere, but we're not going to have one of the better rotations in baseball throwing a bunch of those guys out there. Other teams don't have Sale. That's really the big difference. But after him, things get bleak.

If you gave every GM the chance to pick the White Sox roster and system or the Astros, do you really believe there's a GM out there that would take the Sox system? That's completely delusional. They've got a slightly worse mlb roster, but there system is ranked first or second by pretty much anyone (and that's before they get to draft automatic #1 prospect in baseball Carlos Rodon later this year). We, on the other hand, recently celebrated not being last in most publications.

Most teams do produce minor league players. It just feels like it doesn't happen because we aren't doing it.
  #93  
Old 11-17-2013, 01:28 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
OK, uh, why? You're aware the team isn't going to be very good this upcoming season and Abreu is a long-term project, right? There were supposedly several teams offering similar deals so it's not like they could have just waited. Guy might need a little time just getting used to life in America, let alone playing professional baseball at this level. Even Yasiel Puig needed some seasoning in the minors before he made his debut.
The Sox signed a guy who will be 27 next season to the richest contract in franchise history. If he isn't ready for the majors, Hahn has some serious evaluation issues. It's not like they signed a prospect along the lines of Viciedo. If he's not ready to plug into the middle of the lineup, Hahn made a huge mistake.

Puig meanwhile was 22 when he spent time in the minors, while Abreu is a much more advanced hitter. In addition, Puig was coming off a season in which he was not allowed to play. In 2011-2012, he was banned from play due to a failed defection attempt.
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  #94  
Old 11-17-2013, 01:37 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Our starting pitching is not better than half of baseball... Santiago was phenomenal then fell apart without his peripherals taking a dive (meaning the league has seen his garbage enough to catch up). Axelrod had the same thing happen, only much sooner (because he has even worse stuff). And John Danks barely has an arm (and the numbers to prove it). Our minors are derelict.
Santiago didn't fall apart...he went from being outstanding to average over the last 6 weeks. As relatively poorly as he pitched at the end, he still never got torched.

Axelrod sucks, no doubt, but he is irrelevant at this point. Johnson will surely take "his" place in the rotation, if not some other acquisition. Personally, I think Johnson will be a massive improvement at the end of the rotation.

With Danks, I could take him or leave him, but whether he has an arm left or not is still to be determined.
  #95  
Old 11-17-2013, 02:42 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Oh...so with competent defense (ie, several new, better players) and a good deep pen (i.e., several new, better players), we'd be able to win ten more ball games and just barely miss 90 losses. Brilliant analysis. You proved my point more than your own with that first part.

Our starting pitching is not better than half of baseball. I'm so tired of people mentioning that over and over trying their damnest to make it true. Sale and Quintana were among the best. Peavy kept the number high until he was traded. Santiago was phenomenal then fell apart without his peripherals taking a dive (meaning the league has seen his garbage enough to catch up). Axelrod had the same thing happen, only much sooner (because he has even worse stuff). And John Danks barely has an arm (and the numbers to prove it). Our minors are derelict. The guys we're showing off are all 5-6 ceiling guys like Santiago. Yeah...it's nice to have some depth at least somewhere, but we're not going to have one of the better rotations in baseball throwing a bunch of those guys out there. Other teams don't have Sale. That's really the big difference. But after him, things get bleak.

If you gave every GM the chance to pick the White Sox roster and system or the Astros, do you really believe there's a GM out there that would take the Sox system? That's completely delusional. They've got a slightly worse mlb roster, but there system is ranked first or second by pretty much anyone (and that's before they get to draft automatic #1 prospect in baseball Carlos Rodon later this year). We, on the other hand, recently celebrated not being last in most publications.

Most teams do produce minor league players. It just feels like it doesn't happen because we aren't doing it.
It wouldn't take much to improve the defense on this team. Get a defensive CF and sign Salty and there's your improvement. Bullpens aren't hard to improve - we were throwing some really bad pitchers out there a lot. You want to hyperbolize it, fine. But it wouldn't be hard. The key to winning a WS is to get 4 elite hitters on this team, or 7 good ones. We may have 1. And we need another elite starter. As for Santiago, we'll see, but comparisons to Axelrod (who always got hit hard) are just daft.
Who said most teams don't produce minor league players. Presuming you meant major leaguers, the question is whether they turn into above average major leaguers.
The point of the Astros isn't that they won't be decent soon (although I still don't see much pitching in that organization outside of a couple of guys)....it's that to get to that point, they turned themselves horrible for 3 seasons. And there's exactly zero evidence that this tactic will land them a playoff berth; in fact no team has won a WS using that approach and exactly 1 has made a WS (2 if you count the 2006 Tigers). Their GM made some nice moves...he got some promising minor leaguers for some mediocre players like Bud Norris and made a great trade to get Lowry.
I'm all for doing that. Heck I would try to trade Alexei and Beckham too. Live with L Garcia for a year (but bat him last, not first, Ventura).
  #96  
Old 11-17-2013, 03:01 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
Santiago didn't fall apart...he went from being outstanding to average over the last 6 weeks. As relatively poorly as he pitched at the end, he still never got torched.

Axelrod sucks, no doubt, but he is irrelevant at this point. Johnson will surely take "his" place in the rotation, if not some other acquisition. Personally, I think Johnson will be a massive improvement at the end of the rotation.

With Danks, I could take him or leave him, but whether he has an arm left or not is still to be determined.
He's got long man/back end stuff, and that's what his numbers started to show. It was always gonna happen. Going forward, it's not likely he's going to have an ERA under 4 (and probably closer to the high 4's overall).

I wish people would qualify statements like you made about Johnson. Like "I saw this in X pitch that with a slight adjustment in X way, he should be able to improve". Because saying "I think Johnson will be a massive improvement" really has no meaning if you've ever read any scouting report on him ever. He, likely many others, has just enough to be here and stick around for a few years. And I think he should. But we're not going to have a good rotation with these kinds of guys in it.
  #97  
Old 11-17-2013, 03:03 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
It wouldn't take much to improve the defense on this team. Get a defensive CF and sign Salty and there's your improvement. Bullpens aren't hard to improve - we were throwing some really bad pitchers out there a lot. You want to hyperbolize it, fine. But it wouldn't be hard. The key to winning a WS is to get 4 elite hitters on this team, or 7 good ones. We may have 1. And we need another elite starter. As for Santiago, we'll see, but comparisons to Axelrod (who always got hit hard) are just daft.
Who said most teams don't produce minor league players. Presuming you meant major leaguers, the question is whether they turn into above average major leaguers.
The point of the Astros isn't that they won't be decent soon (although I still don't see much pitching in that organization outside of a couple of guys)....it's that to get to that point, they turned themselves horrible for 3 seasons. And there's exactly zero evidence that this tactic will land them a playoff berth; in fact no team has won a WS using that approach and exactly 1 has made a WS (2 if you count the 2006 Tigers). Their GM made some nice moves...he got some promising minor leaguers for some mediocre players like Bud Norris and made a great trade to get Lowry.
I'm all for doing that. Heck I would try to trade Alexei and Beckham too. Live with L Garcia for a year (but bat him last, not first, Ventura).
I don't think adding a defensive CF and an average catcher on both sides of the ball for serious money longterm will make us appreciably better. Maybe if they were the two worst players on the team.
  #98  
Old 11-17-2013, 03:18 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
He's got long man/back end stuff, and that's what his numbers started to show. It was always gonna happen. Going forward, it's not likely he's going to have an ERA under 4 (and probably closer to the high 4's overall).

Because saying "I think Johnson will be a massive improvement" really has no meaning if you've ever read any scouting report on him ever. He, likely many others, has just enough to be here and stick around for a few years. And I think he should. But we're not going to have a good rotation with these kinds of guys in it.
Well, during the period when according to you Santiago fell apart, his ERA wasn't even above four. I don't know where you get that he has long man stuff either. It's been his plus stuff that has allowed him success so far; it is his command that needs work. And if Johnson has just enough to stick around for a few years then that will be a massive improvement over Axelrod.
  #99  
Old 11-17-2013, 03:37 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Well, during the period when according to you Santiago fell apart, his ERA wasn't even above four. I don't know where you get that he has long man stuff either. It's been his plus stuff that has allowed him success so far; it is his command that needs work. And if Johnson has just enough to stick around for a few years then that will be a massive improvement over Axelrod.
Santiago's batting average allowed skyrocketed in the second half from .221 to .272. Usually when that happens, it's because of lost control, and on the surface his decline in k/bb could explain some of that. But then you look further and see that his command didn't suffer in the second half (or rather, anymore as he was still hitting the same spots with the same frequency), and neither did his velocity suffer. The league is catching up to him fast, and his new peripherals .272/.371/.427 is pretty on par for most career projections for him (which was a ceiling of a 4-5 starter). Basically, he has bad command/control, and the league has adjusted to knowing this. It took longer than normal because he throws a trick pitch, but that effect has essentially worn off.

Also...his ERA from August 1st on was 4.41.

I was considering Danks our fifth starter...but I do see your point. I also don't think it matters. We're going to have 3 or 4 5th starters in our rotation (depending on if we trade Quintana or not). We don't have a good rotation.
  #100  
Old 11-17-2013, 04:04 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Also...his ERA from August 1st on was 4.41.
According to B-R, it was 4.04
  #101  
Old 11-17-2013, 04:06 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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I was considering Danks our fifth starter...but I do see your point. I also don't think it matters. We're going to have 3 or 4 5th starters in our rotation (depending on if we trade Quintana or not). We don't have a good rotation.
So you consider Quintana a 5th starter, that's laughable. I don't know what league you are watching where the average team has guys like Quintana, Santiago and even Johnson for that matter as 5th starters.
  #102  
Old 11-17-2013, 04:30 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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According to B-R, it was 4.04
It's 4.04 in the second half, August 1st represents since the deadline.
  #103  
Old 11-17-2013, 04:33 PM
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So you consider Quintana a 5th starter, that's laughable. I don't know what league you are watching where the average team has guys like Quintana, Santiago and even Johnson for that matter as 5th starters.
You misread that, I don't consider Quintana a 5th starter, but I also expect him not to be on the team come opening day.

If you don't believe those other guys are 5th starter types, really nothing I'm going to say will convince you because you're already ignoring scouting reports and obviously have some other way of evaluating a players worth that doesn't take into account scouting.
  #104  
Old 11-17-2013, 06:06 PM
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It's 4.04 in the second half, August 1st represents since the deadline.
No it's 4.04 after August 1st, like I said. Why do you just make stuff up when anyone can verify it?
  #105  
Old 11-17-2013, 06:13 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
You misread that, I don't consider Quintana a 5th starter, but I also expect him not to be on the team come opening day.

If you don't believe those other guys are 5th starter types, really nothing I'm going to say will convince you because you're already ignoring scouting reports and obviously have some other way of evaluating a players worth that doesn't take into account scouting.
Johnson was rated as a B or B- prospect, which indicates higher than 5th starter ceiling. I don't see how anyone can seriously claim he has a 5th starter ceiling. Santiago was rated C+ by Sickels, according to him "projects as 3rd or 4th starter if 3rd pitch develops." Danks was obviously rated higher than a fifth starter.

As for Quintana, I see what you mean now...
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