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  #76  
Old 09-17-2013, 02:31 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Sale has an ERA in excess of 8 against the Indians, in excess of 6 against the Rangers and in excess of 5 against the Twins. Those four teams represent about 28 percent of his starts. Sale's April ERA was over 4 and his ERA since the beginning of August is approaching 4. Only in May and July has he had a sub-3 ERA. It's true he had an ERA less than 1 in April, but I don't see consistency in his statistics.
IF...and I say IF because I don't know if your numbers are correct, but IF that's true...and it's also true that Sale leads the league in quality starts, complete games, and has been the most clutch in leverage situation of qualifying starters...doesn't it reason that while Sale has been inconsistent in those 28% of starts, every other pitcher in the league has been inconsistent in a higher percentage of starts? We're not arguing if the guy's perfect, just better than everyone else. His quality start percentage along with all the other peripherals pretty much cement that.
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  #77  
Old 09-17-2013, 03:00 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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IF...and I say IF because I don't know if your numbers are correct, but IF that's true...and it's also true that Sale leads the league in quality starts, complete games, and has been the most clutch in leverage situation of qualifying starters...doesn't it reason that while Sale has been inconsistent in those 28% of starts, every other pitcher in the league has been inconsistent in a higher percentage of starts? We're not arguing if the guy's perfect, just better than everyone else. His quality start percentage along with all the other peripherals pretty much cement that.
Compare the numbers of Scheerzer and Sale. Honestly tell me if you wouldn't be enthusiastically behind Sale for Cy Young if he had Scherzer's numbers.

I'm not impressed Sale leads the league with four complete games. One was only eight innings. Jack McDowell pitched four complete-game shutouts in 1993. And if a quality start was seven innings allowing two runs, I would be more impressed. I've never thought an ERA of 4.5 was so quality. And it appears from watching Sale that he loses it sometimes, I don't know if it's concentration or emotion or what, but I have to believe that is something the White Sox want to see improved.

Baseball, ultimately, is about winning. Sale's numbers are almost as good as Scherzer's numbers, but no one seems to care that Scherzer has done more to help his team win. That would matter to Sox fans if their numbers were reversed.
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  #78  
Old 09-17-2013, 03:06 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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I'm not impressed Sale leads the league with four complete games. One was only eight innings.
Shoota!

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Baseball, ultimately, is about winning. Sale's numbers are almost as good as Scherzer's numbers, but no one seems to care that Scherzer has done more to help his team win. That would matter to Sox fans if their numbers were reversed.
Because wins are not a solid metric of talent/performance. They are mostly - mostly - the result of run support. Scherzer 5.53 - 4th in the AL. Sale - 3.18 - 37th in the league.
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Last edited by kittle42; 09-17-2013 at 05:23 PM.
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  #79  
Old 09-17-2013, 03:06 PM
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doublem23 doublem23 is offline
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Baseball, ultimately, is about winning. Sale's numbers are almost as good as Scherzer's numbers, but no one seems to care that Scherzer has done more to help his team win. That would matter to Sox fans if their numbers were reversed.
Except that he hasn't, if you look at any value-based metric, and I mean ANY (take your pick from WAR, RAA, waaWL, etc.) they all clearly show that Sale has been better than Scherzer. Simply put, if you were to have traded them straight up this March, the Tigers with Sale instead of Scherzer, would be better than they are now and the Sox, with Scherzer instead of Sale, would somehow be worse.
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  #80  
Old 09-17-2013, 03:07 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Compare the numbers of Scheerzer and Sale.
This is exactly where your argument ends. I'm not sure if you read the original post, but the whole point of the article was that if you don't look at W-L, there is NO argument for Scherzer in the Cy Young discussion. He's not even a candidate. It's basically Sale, then Darvish followed by Felix Hernandez. Scherzer isn't sniffing what the other three are doing.

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Originally Posted by TDog
no one seems to care that Scherzer has done more to help his team win.
This is emphatically false. You are basing this SOLELY off of W-L. Sale has pitched well enough to win more times than Scherzer and done a better job of pitching in situations where the game is close. The numbers tell an entirely different story from what you are trying to argue.
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  #81  
Old 09-17-2013, 04:36 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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This is emphatically false. You are basing this SOLELY off of W-L. Sale has pitched well enough to win more times than Scherzer and done a better job of pitching in situations where the game is close. The numbers tell an entirely different story from what you are trying to argue.
Please read the following and stop misdefining my argument.

The numbers say Scherzer and Sale have pitched the same number of innings with Scherzer giving up fewer hits and fewer runs, both earned and unearned. Scherzer has given up fewer home runs. He has struck out more hitters. Scherzer has walked five more than Sale, but Sale has hit nine more than Scherzer. Scherzer has a higher strikeout percentage. Her has a lower WHIP. He has a lower ERA.

I don't think quality starts and complete games are important stats when a quality start can give you an ERA of 4.5 and you are only talking about a few complete games being pitched. I particularly don't consider them to be relative stats when you consider that both Scherzer and Sale have pitched the same number of innings.

Complain that Scherzer isn't having the great season Sale is while Scherzer is right now when I am being maligned for my position leading the league in WHIP and has struck out more hitters in the same number of innings. Find some metrics to show Sale is having a better season because determining who had a better season requires such weighty analysis to prove things people watching the game don't believe are true. Forget that Scherzer has been pitching under the pressure of a divisional race.

At the risk of misdefining your argument, I believe if Sale had the numbers Scherzer has and Scherzer had Sale's numbers -- forget wins and losses -- you would be arguing that Sale is more Cy Young-worthy. Unless you want to argue that ERA, WHIP and strikeout per nine innings don't tell you how well someone has pitches.
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  #82  
Old 09-18-2013, 07:44 AM
soxfanreggie soxfanreggie is offline
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Shoota!



Because wins are not a solid metric of talent/performance. They are mostly - mostly - the result of run support. Scherzer 5.53 - 4th in the AL. Sale - 3.18 - 37th in the league.
That's why Garland had an 18-7 record in 2006 with a 4.51 ERA. That's not a great ERA but his teams put up runs. He also had a year at 14-8 with about a 4.99 ERA. MB had a ton of years with a 3.XX ERA where he was .500 or a little over due to poor run support.
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  #83  
Old 09-18-2013, 11:09 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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That's why Garland had an 18-7 record in 2006 with a 4.51 ERA. That's not a great ERA but his teams put up runs. He also had a year at 14-8 with about a 4.99 ERA. MB had a ton of years with a 3.XX ERA where he was .500 or a little over due to poor run support.
But, but, but - since Buehrle probably gave up a 1-0 lead in the 7th inning on a 2-run homer, it is his fault, per TDog, that he didn't win the game.
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  #84  
Old 09-18-2013, 04:50 PM
TommyJohn TommyJohn is offline
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But, but, but - since Buehrle probably gave up a 1-0 lead in the 7th inning on a 2-run homer, it is his fault, per TDog, that he didn't win the game.

Well, yeah. It is his fault.
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  #85  
Old 09-18-2013, 04:55 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Well, yeah. It is his fault.
A pitcher should not be expected to have to be near perfect the great majority of his starts. Some run support would be nice. This isn't a closer whose job is almost completely to protect 1-2 run leads in an inning's work.

Baseball is a team game - wins are dependent upon how the entire team plays. I refuse to tag a starter who coughs up a 1-run lead in a 1-0 game in late innings with full responsibility, even if "he knew the situation he was in."
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  #86  
Old 09-18-2013, 06:10 PM
Boondock Saint Boondock Saint is offline
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A pitcher should not be expected to have to be near perfect the great majority of his starts. Some run support would be nice. This isn't a closer whose job is almost completely to protect 1-2 run leads in an inning's work.

Baseball is a team game - wins are dependent upon how the entire team plays. I refuse to tag a starter who coughs up a 1-run lead in a 1-0 game in late innings with full responsibility, even if "he knew the situation he was in."
Amen. It completely ignores the rest of the pitcher's performance up to that point. And it's not like "knowing the situation" is going to make a pitcher think, "Oh ****, I need to be a good pitcher here because there's two outs with RISP." You're either good, or you're not.
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  #87  
Old 09-27-2013, 09:49 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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A pitcher should not be expected to have to be near perfect the great majority of his starts. Some run support would be nice. This isn't a closer whose job is almost completely to protect 1-2 run leads in an inning's work.

Baseball is a team game - wins are dependent upon how the entire team plays. I refuse to tag a starter who coughs up a 1-run lead in a 1-0 game in late innings with full responsibility, even if "he knew the situation he was in."
I just got back to reading these posts after being on the road for awhile.

The irony is that in one of Max Scherzer's three losses, he gave up a two-run two-out seventh-inning single to lose 2-1. This has happened in none of Chris Sale's losses this year. There was a game where Sale gave up a grand slam in the sixth with the White Sox leading 3-0, eventually losing 4-3, but that really isn't the same thing.

Baseball is a game of contexts. You can't simply look at a pitcher's statistics in isolation without looking at the situation. Mound presence, the ability to do what is needed to win a game, is one of the strengths of quality pitchers. I don't think you can say that a pitcher who loses a lot of close games (and really, Sale has lost a lot of games that weren't that close) would have won those games with just a little more run support.

There is probably not much left to this discussion, though, because I seriously doubt anyone is arguing now that Chris Sale deserves the Cy Young Award.
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  #88  
Old 09-27-2013, 10:09 PM
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Brian26 Brian26 is offline
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I'm not impressed Sale leads the league with four complete games. One was only eight innings.
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Shoota!
I see where TDog is coming from. The complete games are partly a function of how tight the manager's leash is on his starters. Ventura rides his pitchers into the ground, mostly due to a lack of faith in the bullpen in the 2nd half. Sale could just as easily have zero complete games right now and still be the same pitcher.
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  #89  
Old 09-27-2013, 11:04 PM
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I just got back to reading these posts after being on the road for awhile.

The irony is that in one of Max Scherzer's three losses, he gave up a two-run two-out seventh-inning single to lose 2-1. This has happened in none of Chris Sale's losses this year. There was a game where Sale gave up a grand slam in the sixth with the White Sox leading 3-0, eventually losing 4-3, but that really isn't the same thing.

Baseball is a game of contexts. You can't simply look at a pitcher's statistics in isolation without looking at the situation. Mound presence, the ability to do what is needed to win a game, is one of the strengths of quality pitchers. I don't think you can say that a pitcher who loses a lot of close games (and really, Sale has lost a lot of games that weren't that close) would have won those games with just a little more run support.

There is probably not much left to this discussion, though, because I seriously doubt anyone is arguing now that Chris Sale deserves the Cy Young Award.
Yes, you can cherry pick statistics all day.

No, I don't think Chris Sale deserves the Cy Young award.

Here's a question. If you woke up on opening day 2014, who would you prefer was the opening day starter for the Sox. Max Scherzer or Chris Sale? Humor me.
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  #90  
Old 09-27-2013, 11:04 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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And I refuse to believe that the baseball writers that have watched Chris Sale have an inconsistent season including a few brilliant performances,
Calling Chris Sale's season "inconsistent" is madness.
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