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  #31  
Old 09-15-2013, 10:12 AM
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asindc asindc is offline
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Scherzer, barring some very bad stuff in September, will win it unanimously. He deserves to win. Sale isn't even close, but will probably get a few third-place votes, although that could depend on who is voting this year.

Sale is not a consistent winner, and it isn't only a matter of run support, although he hasn't gotten a lot of that. It's a matter of, in too many cases this season, at least for an elite pitcher, not making the big pitch when he needs to. If you're having a Cy Young season, you don't give up a grand slam after a walk to load the bases when your team has a 3-0 lead in the sixth inning at home. Sale has some impressive numbers, but he isn't winning all the games an elite pitcher should be winning.

I expect more out of Sale than I've seen this year. I hope he is getting the experience this year that will help him win more games in the future.
Scherzer has not been a better pitcher than Sale this year anymore than Sabathia was a better pitcher than Felix the year he won. Frankly, looking at wins as a primary consideration is a lazy approach to evaluating a pitcher's performance. As others have noted, a pitcher has less control over his won/loss record than virtually any other stat associated with pitching.
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  #32  
Old 09-15-2013, 02:33 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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Scherzer has not been a better pitcher than Sale this year anymore than Sabathia was a better pitcher than Felix the year he won. Frankly, looking at wins as a primary consideration is a lazy approach to evaluating a pitcher's performance. As others have noted, a pitcher has less control over his won/loss record than virtually any other stat associated with pitching.
The premise that a pitcher has less control over wins than any other stat has led people to ignore the fact that a starting pitcher has more to do with winning a game than any other player on his team. Pitching is about putting your team in a position to win games. The White Sox had the lead at one point in five of Sale's losses. There were games where he gave up runs early and ended up not getting any run support.

Of course the pitcher who leads the league in wins is going to lead the league in "cheap" wins, but if you want to talk run support, in three Scherzer losses, the Tigers have only scored a total of three runs. That isn't to say he didn't deserve to lose those games. He gave up a two-out two-run single in his 2-1 loss to the Red Sox when he was protecting a 1-0 lead. And the White Sox would have beaten him in a game where he only gave up two earned runs in six innings, but the Tigers scored late and the De Aza game-ending hit came against the bullpen.

It is fashionable to look at a pitcher's stats and throw out the win-loss record. If your team can't score, you can't win. But that is at least as erroneous as looking only at a pitcher's win-loss record to judge his season. The pitcher who holds the record for 1-0 losses in a season (I think it's still Ferguson Jenkins) did it in a 20-win season. An elite season isn't just about having great stats, it's about applying those great stats to win the tames your team has an opportunity to win. I certainly wouldn't want a starting pitcher who is more concerned with his numbers than whether his team wins or loses.

Not that Sale doesn't care if he wins or loses, but I hope he is gaining the experience to win the games he has the opportunity to win and put up future Cy Young-worthy seasons.

When I see people ignoring occasions where a pitcher lost games that he had an opportunity to win while arguing that statistical analysis of the pitcher's performance, I see that applying critical thinking to following baseball is a lost art.
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  #33  
Old 09-15-2013, 03:20 PM
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doublem23 doublem23 is offline
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When I see people ignoring occasions where a pitcher lost games that he had an opportunity to win while arguing that statistical analysis of the pitcher's performance, I see that applying critical thinking to following baseball is a lost art.
Yeah, except that's not at all what people are saying, people are noting that Sale is superior to Scherzer in every single way except for the one stat over which he has the least control. We're not talking about a middle of the pack-type SP, we're talking about the guy who is literally one of the best in the league. How someone can fancy themselves as an intellectual artist with a deeper understanding of baseball and still care about a pitcher's W-L record is hysterical.
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  #34  
Old 09-15-2013, 03:40 PM
chicagowhitesox1 chicagowhitesox1 is offline
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I think when Fergie Jenkins pitched, wins meant alot more than they do today.
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  #35  
Old 09-15-2013, 04:11 PM
Boondock Saint Boondock Saint is offline
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I think when Fergie Jenkins pitched, wins meant alot more than they do today.
Guys pitched a whole nine innings a hell of a lot more often back then.
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  #36  
Old 09-15-2013, 04:36 PM
chicagowhitesox1 chicagowhitesox1 is offline
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Guys pitched a whole nine innings a hell of a lot more often back then.
Yeah thats what I mean though. Back then Catfish Hunter was considered one of the best pitchers when in reality, he wasn't even close to being the best. Nowdays a guy like Scherzer who I believe will still win the Cy Young has alot tougher time to win a Cy Young for being a 20 game winner. I really don't see a huge difference between Scherzer and Sale like when Catfish Hunter or Randy Jones beat out much more deserving pitchers. I really can't see Scherzer losing this either, it's not like he's a 20 game winner like Jose Lima or Russ Ortiz.
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  #37  
Old 09-15-2013, 05:25 PM
SCCWS SCCWS is offline
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Yeah, except that's not at all what people are saying, people are noting that Sale is superior to Scherzer in every single way except for the one stat over which he has the least control. We're not talking about a middle of the pack-type SP, we're talking about the guy who is literally one of the best in the league. How someone can fancy themselves as an intellectual artist with a deeper understanding of baseball and still care about a pitcher's W-L record is hysterical.
I can understand your disdain for W-L. But if we throw out W-L, then Yu Darvish's year is arguably better than Chris Sale's.
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  #38  
Old 09-15-2013, 06:41 PM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Yeah, except that's not at all what people are saying, people are noting that Sale is superior to Scherzer in every single way except for the one stat over which he has the least control. We're not talking about a middle of the pack-type SP, we're talking about the guy who is literally one of the best in the league. How someone can fancy themselves as an intellectual artist with a deeper understanding of baseball and still care about a pitcher's W-L record is hysterical.
This is where the stat crowd loses me. Why should you ignore pitchers W-L record? Or ERA? A fielders fielding Pct? They all count and they all matter, but everything in context. It gets ridiculous after awhile. I sometimes feel like I stepped down a rabbit hole where Pythagorean wins are more important than real ones. I turned 8 the year Yankee pitcher Bullet Bob Turley won the Cy Young. They only gave one of those a year from 1956-66. A lot us, including the little kid that was me knew Billy Pierce was better than Turley that year. We weren't all morons waiting for a savior like Bill James to appear. One of the indicators that Pierce had a great year was his ERA. Yeah I know, ERA is good for a laugh too.
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  #39  
Old 09-15-2013, 06:43 PM
TommyJohn TommyJohn is online now
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This is where the stat crowd loses me. Why should you ignore pitchers W-L record? Or ERA? A fielders fielding Pct? They all count and they all matter, but everything in context. It gets ridiculous after awhile. I sometimes feel like I stepped down a rabbit hole where Pythagorean wins are more important than real ones. I turned 8 the year Yankee pitcher Bullet Bob Turley won the Cy Young. They only gave one of those a year from 1956-66. A lot us, including the little kid that was me knew Billy Pierce was better than Turley that year. We weren't all morons waiting for a savior like Bill James to appear. One of the indicators that Pierce had a great year was his ERA. Yeah I know, ERA is good for a laugh too.
Great post. The stat crowd lost me a long time ago.
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  #40  
Old 09-15-2013, 07:20 PM
WLL1855 WLL1855 is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
The premise that a pitcher has less control over wins than any other stat has led people to ignore the fact that a starting pitcher has more to do with winning a game than any other player on his team. Pitching is about putting your team in a position to win games. The White Sox had the lead at one point in five of Sale's losses. There were games where he gave up runs early and ended up not getting any run support.

Of course the pitcher who leads the league in wins is going to lead the league in "cheap" wins, but if you want to talk run support, in three Scherzer losses, the Tigers have only scored a total of three runs. That isn't to say he didn't deserve to lose those games. He gave up a two-out two-run single in his 2-1 loss to the Red Sox when he was protecting a 1-0 lead. And the White Sox would have beaten him in a game where he only gave up two earned runs in six innings, but the Tigers scored late and the De Aza game-ending hit came against the bullpen.

It is fashionable to look at a pitcher's stats and throw out the win-loss record. If your team can't score, you can't win. But that is at least as erroneous as looking only at a pitcher's win-loss record to judge his season. The pitcher who holds the record for 1-0 losses in a season (I think it's still Ferguson Jenkins) did it in a 20-win season. An elite season isn't just about having great stats, it's about applying those great stats to win the tames your team has an opportunity to win. I certainly wouldn't want a starting pitcher who is more concerned with his numbers than whether his team wins or loses.

Not that Sale doesn't care if he wins or loses, but I hope he is gaining the experience to win the games he has the opportunity to win and put up future Cy Young-worthy seasons.

When I see people ignoring occasions where a pitcher lost games that he had an opportunity to win while arguing that statistical analysis of the pitcher's performance, I see that applying critical thinking to following baseball is a lost art.
This is where your argument hits the loony bin. I hope you meet Billy Pierce one day and he smacks you upside the head for this thinking.
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  #41  
Old 09-15-2013, 07:23 PM
Boondock Saint Boondock Saint is offline
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This is where your argument hits the loony bin.
Right? Of course he deserved to lose, he gave up a run!
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  #42  
Old 09-15-2013, 08:11 PM
Zakath Zakath is offline
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Well, today's outing isn't going to help his cause.
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  #43  
Old 09-15-2013, 08:53 PM
soxnut1018 soxnut1018 is offline
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Originally Posted by SI1020 View Post
This is where the stat crowd loses me. Why should you ignore pitchers W-L record? Or ERA? A fielders fielding Pct? They all count and they all matter, but everything in context. It gets ridiculous after awhile. I sometimes feel like I stepped down a rabbit hole where Pythagorean wins are more important than real ones. I turned 8 the year Yankee pitcher Bullet Bob Turley won the Cy Young. They only gave one of those a year from 1956-66. A lot us, including the little kid that was me knew Billy Pierce was better than Turley that year. We weren't all morons waiting for a savior like Bill James to appear. One of the indicators that Pierce had a great year was his ERA. Yeah I know, ERA is good for a laugh too.
W-L record IS a stat, it's just not a good one. Why use it when there are so many other stats that give a much better indicator of a pitcher's success?
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  #44  
Old 09-15-2013, 08:54 PM
Noneck Noneck is online now
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Well, today's outing isn't going to help his cause.
Yup, I said before he had 2 chances, now Ill add 1 more, none.
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  #45  
Old 09-15-2013, 09:43 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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This is where your argument hits the loony bin. I hope you meet Billy Pierce one day and he smacks you upside the head for this thinking.
What you bolded was in refernce to Max Scherzer in one of his three losses giving up a two-run single to lose the lead in a 2-1 loss. I should have been more clear that I was attempting to be ironic as the argument was that Scherzer is benefiting from run support. And Scherzer didn't win today, even though he left the game with a 2-1 lead.

It isn't just about wins, and in fact Scherzer has a better ERA and has struck out more hitters. We aren't talking aobut someone with an ERA of 4 who is winning games behind a high scoring offense. The major difference between Scherzer and Sale this isn't Scherzer having a little bit better ERA and a few more strikeouts, it's Scherzer being a lot better at winning games he has a position to win.
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