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  #106  
Old 07-23-2013, 06:06 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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I read Bruce's chat and Alexei is one of the best SS in baseball, Dunn has had a great month, Rios is extremely valuable, we know about Peavy, and we have core pitching contingent of Reed, Quintana, Santiago, Danks and Peavy, any of whom would help a contender a lot....and I ask myself:
How the hell are we one of the worst teams in baseball?
You're listening to Bruce Levine, for one. And two, you're probably overrating the value of that core pitching contingent. Rios has been pretty average/below average this year, Peavy has an extra year on his deal and he still isn't viewed as positively by buyers as Garza was, and NOBODY is trading for Dunn unless you're giving them Sale for free.
  #107  
Old 07-23-2013, 06:16 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
You're listening to Bruce Levine, for one. And two, you're probably overrating the value of that core pitching contingent. Rios has been pretty average/below average this year, Peavy has an extra year on his deal and he still isn't viewed as positively by buyers as Garza was, and NOBODY is trading for Dunn unless you're giving them Sale for free.
I'm not overrating the core pitching contingent, except perhaps Danks - been over that before. Santiago who is considered the weakest of the bunch, has the similar peripheral numbers Samardzija who is considered a future top of the rotation starter by some. Peavy hasn't pitched as much so that's a difference; that he isn't viewed as positively as Garza is unsupported by the facts, and irrelevant anyway. Only Texas showed significant interest in Garza. Rios hasn't been below average this year. We certainly have some gaping holes though. Still, I think a significant under-performance.
  #108  
Old 07-23-2013, 06:53 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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I'm not overrating the core pitching contingent, except perhaps Danks - been over that before. Santiago who is considered the weakest of the bunch, has the similar peripheral numbers Samardzija who is considered a future top of the rotation starter by some. Peavy hasn't pitched as much so that's a difference; that he isn't viewed as positively as Garza is unsupported by the facts, and irrelevant anyway. Only Texas showed significant interest in Garza. Rios hasn't been below average this year. We certainly have some gaping holes though. Still, I think a significant under-performance.
Below average for what you expect out of Rios. He's hitting .270ish with a dozen homers at the deadline? Yeah, that's not one of his horrible years, but it's well off pace for a good year. Overall, he's be replacement level. What team is going to trade you anything significant for an aging replacement level outfielder with a big contract? OF COURSE the White Sox were disappointed in the offers for him. To most teams, he has negative value.

That Stark column with information and quotes from different team execs was pretty explicit that most buyers considered Garza the big fish. Disagree with it all you want, but don't say I didn't support it with evidence.

The reason Samardzija (sp?) is considered top of the rotation talent is because of his talent. First full season peripherals are pretty meaningless compared to what a guy actually throws. I'm not the biggest Samardzija fan, but comparing Santiago to him based off limited sample size is...frankly not the best way to go about comparing them. You're talking about guys that project at opposite ends of the spectrum. In 1998, John Snyder posted even better first half numbers than that. Would you have been comparing him to Kerry Wood that year? It's just as unreasonable. Santiago's stuff projects at the back end of a rotation, 3-4 absolute top. You can be happy about how he's produced in his limited time so far, but let's not act like he's the next Cy Young contender.
  #109  
Old 07-23-2013, 07:21 PM
dickallen15 dickallen15 is offline
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Below average for what you expect out of Rios. He's hitting .270ish with a dozen homers at the deadline? Yeah, that's not one of his horrible years, but it's well off pace for a good year. Overall, he's be replacement level. What team is going to trade you anything significant for an aging replacement level outfielder with a big contract? OF COURSE the White Sox were disappointed in the offers for him. To most teams, he has negative value.

That Stark column with information and quotes from different team execs was pretty explicit that most buyers considered Garza the big fish. Disagree with it all you want, but don't say I didn't support it with evidence.

The reason Samardzija (sp?) is considered top of the rotation talent is because of his talent. First full season peripherals are pretty meaningless compared to what a guy actually throws. I'm not the biggest Samardzija fan, but comparing Santiago to him based off limited sample size is...frankly not the best way to go about comparing them. You're talking about guys that project at opposite ends of the spectrum. In 1998, John Snyder posted even better first half numbers than that. Would you have been comparing him to Kerry Wood that year? It's just as unreasonable. Santiago's stuff projects at the back end of a rotation, 3-4 absolute top. You can be happy about how he's produced in his limited time so far, but let's not act like he's the next Cy Young contender.
Jon Heyman was quoting execs saying that Peavy was the biggest fish. Does that not count? And John Snyders first half in 1998 consisted of 2 appearances and a 5.79 ERA. In his other year with the White Sox, his ERA was 5.81 in the first half.
  #110  
Old 07-23-2013, 07:24 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Jon Heyman was quoting execs saying that Peavy was the biggest fish. Does that not count? And John Snyders first half in 1998 consisted of 2 appearances and a 5.79 ERA.
I might be thinking of 99. One of those years he started like 6-0 over the first couple of months with an era in the 2's. Point was, he was obviously not that good, as he (like Santiago) projected as a back end/long man. Snyder was out of the league after three years.

I can't seem to find Heyman's piece quoting execs that Peavy was the #1 guy, can you link it?
  #111  
Old 07-23-2013, 07:27 PM
dickallen15 dickallen15 is offline
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I might be thinking of 99. One of those years he started like 6-0 over the first couple of months with an era in the 2's.

I can't seem to find Heyman's piece quoting execs that Peavy was the #1 guy, can you link it?
5.81 in 1999 in the first half.

And here is Heyman
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jo...he-market-star
  #112  
Old 07-23-2013, 07:29 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Samardizija may have better stuff. True. But John Snyder is no example. Come on - the guy had WHIPS in the 1.4 and K rates in the 5 range. Santiago's are equivalent to Samardzija's, even if the stuff isn't.
I never saw the article to which you refer, but I saw the Heyman article that said the opposite. I also only saw one team on Garza hard - and Texas was all over him for sure (Texas' complete disinterest in Peavy perhaps can be explained, and this is purely speculation, by AJ and Peavy's non-relationship on the Sox). But I didn't see anyone else.
  #113  
Old 07-23-2013, 07:34 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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5.81 in 1999 in the first half.

And here is Heyman
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jo...he-market-star
You aren't listening to what I'm saying. He started insanely one year over a similar stretch to what Santiago has. Yeah, he fell back down to Earth. I expect the same from Santiago. Perhaps not as extreme, but also perhaps as extreme. It's not like he's got a repertoire of above average pitches.

Thank you for the link.
  #114  
Old 07-23-2013, 07:37 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Samardizija may have better stuff. True. But John Snyder is no example. Come on - the guy had WHIPS in the 1.4 and K rates in the 5 range. Santiago's are equivalent to Samardzija's, even if the stuff isn't.
I never saw the article to which you refer, but I saw the Heyman article that said the opposite. I also only saw one team on Garza hard - and Texas was all over him for sure (Texas' complete disinterest in Peavy perhaps can be explained, and this is purely speculation, by AJ and Peavy's non-relationship on the Sox). But I didn't see anyone else.
The Braves and the Orioles were on Garza. The Orioles went with Feldman because they didn't want to pay. They were never in on Peavy. The Braves, after being linked to Garza, aren't even kicking the tires on Peavy with few other options. It's Peavy who's only been linked to one team, and that's Boston.

The Stark article is in this thread, posted it today.
  #115  
Old 07-23-2013, 07:50 PM
Huisj Huisj is offline
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Originally Posted by dickallen15 View Post
5.81 in 1999 in the first half.

And here is Heyman
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jo...he-market-star

To put this petty argument to rest, a quick link to a page that I found in about 15 seconds:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ching_gamelogs

I remember people comparing his approach and stuff to Maddux during that stretch. It's weird looking back on it that it was really only 7 starts before he came back to earth. It seemed like it was more of the first half.
  #116  
Old 07-23-2013, 07:50 PM
dickallen15 dickallen15 is offline
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You aren't listening to what I'm saying. He started insanely one year over a similar stretch to what Santiago has. Yeah, he fell back down to Earth. I expect the same from Santiago. Perhaps not as extreme, but also perhaps as extreme. It's not like he's got a repertoire of above average pitches.

Thank you for the link.
He was 6-1 with a 2.00 ERA 5 weeks and 45 innings into the 1999 season and fell apart. He also fanned less than 5 per 9 innings. I am not sold on Santiago's future as a great starter, but he is far more talented than Snyder.
  #117  
Old 07-23-2013, 07:54 PM
Huisj Huisj is offline
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You aren't listening to what I'm saying. He started insanely one year over a similar stretch to what Santiago has. Yeah, he fell back down to Earth. I expect the same from Santiago. Perhaps not as extreme, but also perhaps as extreme. It's not like he's got a repertoire of above average pitches.

Thank you for the link.
Santiago as a lefty with low-90s pop that gets lots of strikeouts is a whole lot different than John Snyder as a righty with 90 peak and reliance on location and movement. Snyder was like a slightly bigger Dylan Axelrod. Santiago's biggest problem isn't his stuff or his arm, it's his control.
  #118  
Old 07-23-2013, 08:09 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Huisj View Post
To put this petty argument to rest, a quick link to a page that I found in about 15 seconds:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ching_gamelogs

I remember people comparing his approach and stuff to Maddux during that stretch. It's weird looking back on it that it was really only 7 starts before he came back to earth. It seemed like it was more of the first half.
Thanks

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Originally Posted by dickallen15 View Post
He was 6-1 with a 2.00 ERA 5 weeks and 45 innings into the 1999 season and fell apart. He also fanned less than 5 per 9 innings. I am not sold on Santiago's future as a great starter, but he is far more talented than Snyder.
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Originally Posted by Huisj View Post
Santiago as a lefty with low-90s pop that gets lots of strikeouts is a whole lot different than John Snyder as a righty with 90 peak and reliance on location and movement. Snyder was like a slightly bigger Dylan Axelrod. Santiago's biggest problem isn't his stuff or his arm, it's his control.
I was just trying to point out the extreme positive analyzation of our guys. Santiago's different, yes, but he's still a 4/5/6 ceiling guy. Comparing him to Samardzija is an absolute reach.
  #119  
Old 07-23-2013, 08:20 PM
dickallen15 dickallen15 is offline
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Thanks





I was just trying to point out the extreme positive analyzation of our guys. Santiago's different, yes, but he's still a 4/5/6 ceiling guy. Comparing him to Samardzija is an absolute reach.
When Samardzija was Santiago's age, he wasn't any more successful than Santiago. I have a feeling you would think a lot more of Hector if he were a Cub or a Tiger. Then his k rate, batting average against, ERA, would all come into play, but because he is a White Sox, for some reason you have to let everyone know he will fail.
  #120  
Old 07-23-2013, 08:25 PM
SCCWS SCCWS is offline
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Originally Posted by dickallen15 View Post
When Samardzija was Santiago's age, he wasn't any more successful than Santiago. I have a feeling you would think a lot more of Hector if he were a Cub or a Tiger. Then his k rate, batting average against, ERA, would all come into play, but because he is a White Sox, for some reason you have to let everyone know he will fail.
Cub fans don't like White Sox players
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