White Sox Interactive Forums
Sox Clubhouse
 Soxogram: 
Congratulations on the Rookie records for HR and RBI in April, Jose!

Welcome
Go Back   White Sox Interactive Forums > Baseball Discussions > Sox Clubhouse
Home Chat Stats Register Blogs FAQ Calendar Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #31  
Old 04-26-2013, 05:09 PM
cards press box cards press box is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,874
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkjt View Post
Sox are second in the league in ERA...of course,not sure that the saber folks consider that a viable stat anymore
I think ERA is still pretty important. Ever look at the team ERA leaders at the end of a season? It almost always matches the teams that made the playoffs.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 04-26-2013, 07:01 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Southside
Posts: 14,349
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Basically. ERA is nice overview stat, it tells you basically what you need to know but doesn't offer too much depth. It's basically the pitcher's equivalent of OPS. You can make some snap judgments based on those stats but if you really want to learn more about what's going on you need to dig deeper. Saying someone is a good pitcher because he has the best ERA in the league is a valid statement. Saying someone is the best pitcher in the league because he has the best ERA is more of a gray area.
I think for starters at least ERA is a pretty reliable stat. Ultimately EVERY stat provides just a snap shot, but I am hard pressed to think of a starter who posted a good ERA that wasn't actually that good.
__________________

Go Sox!!!
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 04-26-2013, 07:11 PM
ChiSoxGal85's Avatar
ChiSoxGal85 ChiSoxGal85 is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Geneva, IL
Posts: 5,404
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boondock Saint View Post
We should just pepper every postgame thread with Major League references/clips until the Sox turn things around.
I'm up for it.
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 04-26-2013, 08:51 PM
TDog TDog is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Modesto, California
Posts: 16,199
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
I think for starters at least ERA is a pretty reliable stat. Ultimately EVERY stat provides just a snap shot, but I am hard pressed to think of a starter who posted a good ERA that wasn't actually that good.
Like any stat, sometimes a starter's ERA can be misleading. I've seen some starters who give up a lot of unearned runs because they have a great deal of difficulty pitching over mistakes. In 2008, it seemed Gavin Floyd gave up an excessive number of unearned runs, really many more than you could blame on the defense. Sometimes it's a dropped two-out fly, but even unearned runs aren't created equal. I once saw the Cubs score 10 unearned runs in an inning after a two-out error that loaded the bases in a still scoreless first inning. And sometimes pitchers stay in the game longer than they should to save an otherwise overworked staff. There is something to be said for a pitcher who eats innings, even if he gives up a few more runs by doing so.

ERAs meant more when starters regularly pitched complete games. Now multimplying earned runs allowed per inning by nine feels a little arbritray. Still, I don't know if I've seen a starter with a great ERA who wasn't a very effective pitcher.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 04-26-2013, 09:24 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Southside
Posts: 14,349
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TDog View Post
Like any stat, sometimes a starter's ERA can be misleading. I've seen some starters who give up a lot of unearned runs because they have a great deal of difficulty pitching over mistakes. In 2008, it seemed Gavin Floyd gave up an excessive number of unearned runs, really many more than you could blame on the defense. Sometimes it's a dropped two-out fly, but even unearned runs aren't created equal. I once saw the Cubs score 10 unearned runs in an inning after a two-out error that loaded the bases in a still scoreless first inning. And sometimes pitchers stay in the game longer than they should to save an otherwise overworked staff. There is something to be said for a pitcher who eats innings, even if he gives up a few more runs by doing so.

ERAs meant more when starters regularly pitched complete games. Now multimplying earned runs allowed per inning by nine feels a little arbritray. Still, I don't know if I've seen a starter with a great ERA who wasn't a very effective pitcher.
I had no idea that Gavin gave up 19 unearned runs. I am willing to bet that that is an exception rather than the rule, I would think the difference between unearned and earned runs is far less.

I also wouldn't say that it indicates a pitcher can't overcome mistakes made by his defense (though sometimes that is the case), I think it is also indicative of a bad defensive team. Buerhle gave up a lot of unearned runs back in 2003, while he had a bad year that year, the 2003 was horrendous defensively. If you're a ground ball pitcher like Buerhle you need your defense to come through for you.
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 04-26-2013, 09:30 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Lakeview
Posts: 18,218
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
I think for starters at least ERA is a pretty reliable stat. Ultimately EVERY stat provides just a snap shot, but I am hard pressed to think of a starter who posted a good ERA that wasn't actually that good.
I can probably find a guy whose xERA was like a run or more higher than his ERA, but I'm too lazy right now.
__________________
Ridiculousness across all sports:

(1) "You have no valid opinion because you never played the game."
(2) "Stats are irrelevant. This guy just doesn't know how to win."
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 04-26-2013, 09:34 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Southside
Posts: 14,349
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
I can probably find a guy whose xERA was like a run or more higher than his ERA, but I'm too lazy right now.
I'm sure there are a ton of a relievers like that, but a starter? And again, there is the question of whether or not that says something about the pitcher or about the defense behind him. A sinkerball guy who gives up a lot of unearned runs is probably being let down by his defense more than anything else.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 04-26-2013, 10:37 PM
TDog TDog is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Modesto, California
Posts: 16,199
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
I had no idea that Gavin gave up 19 unearned runs. I am willing to bet that that is an exception rather than the rule, I would think the difference between unearned and earned runs is far less.

I also wouldn't say that it indicates a pitcher can't overcome mistakes made by his defense (though sometimes that is the case), I think it is also indicative of a bad defensive team. Buerhle gave up a lot of unearned runs back in 2003, while he had a bad year that year, the 2003 was horrendous defensively. If you're a ground ball pitcher like Buerhle you need your defense to come through for you.
I didn't look up Gavin Floyd's unearned runs, although I was guessing it would be around 20. Yes, even 19 unearned runs is excessive for a season. I was remembering innings where an error prevented a third out and he gave up a couple of hits after that. Many unearned runs, while unearned, are runs that strong pitching can prevent.
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 04-26-2013, 11:29 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Southside
Posts: 14,349
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TDog View Post
I didn't look up Gavin Floyd's unearned runs, although I was guessing it would be around 20. Yes, even 19 unearned runs is excessive for a season. I was remembering innings where an error prevented a third out and he gave up a couple of hits after that. Many unearned runs, while unearned, are runs that strong pitching can prevent.
Again, I think it depends on the pitcher. I would say that Mark Buehrle is a strong pitcher but he relies on his defense. If his shortstop boots a ground ball that is right at him, there isn't much that Buerhle can do about that.
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 04-28-2013, 12:54 PM
TDog TDog is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Modesto, California
Posts: 16,199
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
Again, I think it depends on the pitcher. I would say that Mark Buehrle is a strong pitcher but he relies on his defense. If his shortstop boots a ground ball that is right at him, there isn't much that Buerhle can do about that.
You can make assumptions by looking at raw stats based on your experience, and you might be right. My assumpiton when I see a pitcher giving up a lot of unearned runs is that he couldn't pitch over mistakes as well as other pitchers. If Mark Buehrle is giving up five or so unearned runs in a season, I can assume a few infield defenive mistakes, maybe one or two botched double plays that led to a runners scoring from second base. But in 2008, there were games when he couldn't stop the bleeding, although not as much as often as Floyd who could give me the impression that he didn't care about giving up unearned runs because they didn't count against him.

My assumption when I see a pitcher with 10 or 20 unearned runs in a season is that the the pitcher is to blame for a lot of those unearned runs. I saw it happen with Floyd and Buehrle in 2008. A good example of what I'm talking about was on display in the fourth inning of Saturday night's Giants-Padres game. Barry Zito gave up six runs, five of which were unearned, in the fourth inning. There was one error, coming on a ball Carlos Quentin hit the outfield with one out and none on. At that point, Zito had a 5-0 lead. Zito got only one more out before the Padres knocked him out.

Not all unearned runs are created equal.
Reply With Quote
  #41  
Old 04-28-2013, 01:00 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Southside
Posts: 14,349
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TDog View Post
You can make assumptions by looking at raw stats based on your experience, and you might be right. My assumpiton when I see a pitcher giving up a lot of unearned runs is that he couldn't pitch over mistakes as well as other pitchers. If Mark Buehrle is giving up five or so unearned runs in a season, I can assume a few infield defenive mistakes, maybe one or two botched double plays that led to a runners scoring from second base. But in 2008, there were games when he couldn't stop the bleeding, although not as much as often as Floyd who could give me the impression that he didn't care about giving up unearned runs because they didn't count against him.

My assumption when I see a pitcher with 10 or 20 unearned runs in a season is that the the pitcher is to blame for a lot of those unearned runs. I saw it happen with Floyd and Buehrle in 2008. A good example of what I'm talking about was on display in the fourth inning of Saturday night's Giants-Padres game. Barry Zito gave up six runs, five of which were unearned, in the fourth inning. There was one error, coming on a ball Carlos Quentin hit the outfield with one out and none on. At that point, Zito had a 5-0 lead. Zito got only one more out before the Padres knocked him out.

Not all unearned runs are created equal.
That is true and there is one game in 2008 in particular that I recall Buerhle couldn't pitch over a mistake by the defense (I think it was against the Angels and I think that was the game Buehrle took a bat to a cooler in the dugout). I think for unearned runs you have to watch the game to see. A sinker ball guy needs his defense to back him up and if he is getting guys to hit ground balls and guys behind him are either booting the ball or just can't quite get there, that is on the defense. But if it is the sort of thing that happened to Bartolo Colon in 2009 where one guy makes an error and then all of a sudden Colon gives up 7 runs, that's on the pitcher.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



Forum Jump




All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:16 AM.




Design by: Michelle

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Site-specific editorial/photos Copyright ©2001 - 2008 White Sox Interactive. All rights reserved.