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  #31  
Old 04-25-2013, 04:46 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Dick:

Thanks for doing that research on the Nationals.

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  #32  
Old 04-25-2013, 04:48 PM
KingXerxes KingXerxes is offline
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I can absolutely see where analysis of data pays dividends, and we've got an example of it right here in Chicago (although we're on the wrong side of it) with Adam Dunn.

A few years ago teams simply defended him in a regular "Ted Williams Shift", but evidently the numbers have shown that putting a fielder in short right would reduce his effectiveness.....and it has.

Stats are additional information plain and simple. Information which may or may not be used by teams to help make decisions. It's not an all or nothing proposition, and if a scout or GM uses this data it doesn't make him a automaton.

I'd must sooner have a guy making informed choices by using available data over somebody who thinks you can field a winner by getting guys who "bow their necks, cinch it up, strap it down, dial it in and hunker down".

The very fact Ken Harrelson opines on what makes a good team / GM makes me laugh out loud. He had his chance and how did that go? (See - Jose DeLeon for Bobby Bonilla)
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  #33  
Old 04-25-2013, 04:50 PM
TaylorStSox TaylorStSox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dickallen15 View Post
Silly you is right. The Nationals minor leagues are ranked fairly low (21 by Keith Law) and you posted this:

Yeah, and look at the results... You're talking about a team that won 95 games last year and probably has the most enviable collection of under-25 talent assembled... maybe ever?


The most enviable collection of under 25 talent assembled...maybe ever?
The Nationals currently have 4 players on their roster under 25. The two no brainers I mentioned and the incomparable Steve Lombardozzi and Anthony Rendon.
LOL! That's some incredible ownage right there.
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I'm not counting this homerun or his 3 RBI from today's game because of the game situation. I'm not counting his pinch hit solo homerun in a blowout win in Colorado. In my book, Crede has 2 less home runs than his statistics show, 4 less RBI, and one less walk (the one where he pinch hit for Uribe after coming in with a 3-0 count and taking one pitch).
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  #34  
Old 04-25-2013, 04:56 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Nobody would disagree with that. The only people who think there's this giant class of baseball fans that ONLY care about stats and not traditional scouting and intangibles are the ones that ONLY value traditional scouting (a la Hawk) and think that any time someone mentions something like FIP, BABIP, or, god forbid, WAR, means they must hate the human element of baseball.

Stats make baseball better. Not worse.
Having read some of the stuff written by Keith Law his attitude certainly strikes me as being in the class that is at the very least bordering on being dismissive of anything besides stats. There are some other writers, a couple of the guys on "FireJoeMorgan" (a site which I loved btw) that certainly SEEM to have a similar attitude. They are probably in the minority of the sabermetric community as I think there is some tacit acknowledgement of the limits of stats there.
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  #35  
Old 04-25-2013, 05:03 PM
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doublem23 doublem23 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dickallen15 View Post
Silly you is right. The Nationals minor leagues are ranked fairly low (21 by Keith Law) and you posted this:

Yeah, and look at the results... You're talking about a team that won 95 games last year and probably has the most enviable collection of under-25 talent assembled... maybe ever?


The most enviable collection of under 25 talent assembled...maybe ever?
The Nationals currently have 4 players on their roster under 25. The two no brainers I mentioned and the incomparable Steve Lombardozzi and Anthony Rendon.
Ah, bummer, you got me. Well, in my defense, Rendon is a legitimate blue chip prospect. If he were in our organization, he'd have all the hype Beckham did (Savior of the franchise). In Washington, he's maybe the 5th or 6th best young player on their team.

You also forgot Wilson Ramos, good young catcher as well.

And dang, I went with my gut and assumed guys like Gio and Zimmermann and Detweiler were still around the 25-year mark. I was off by two years. YA GOT ME! Can I amend my statements and say they have the best collection of under-30 talent assembled, easily in my lifetime (approximately 30 years?) Will that work?

Either way, if you'd like to point and laugh and say HA HA, this guy thought a guy whose really 26 was 25, then I think it still basically underscores my point that if Hawk and his ilk are going to whine about the approach the Nationals are taking; coming off a 95-win season and still have one of the youngest rosters in the Majors (average position player age is 27.9, 2nd youngest in NL, average pitcher age is 28, essentially tied for 3rd youngest in NL) because they're firing his buddies and actually producing results on the field, then it only further demonstrates that Hawk is nothing but a senile old coot who is only still employed in baseball in any capacity because he was lucky enough to find an owner who runs his team either like a charity and not a real business, or he's too cheap to actually get someone that knows what the hell they're doing.

Hawk sucks. I can't imagine why any Sox fan would want to subject themselves to more of his idiocy than the team already shoves down our throats.
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  #36  
Old 04-25-2013, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
Having read some of the stuff written by Keith Law his attitude certainly strikes me as being in the class that is at the very least bordering on being dismissive of anything besides stats. There are some other writers, a couple of the guys on "FireJoeMorgan" (a site which I loved btw) that certainly SEEM to have a similar attitude. They are probably in the minority of the sabermetric community as I think there is some tacit acknowledgement of the limits of stats there.
I can't defend Law because he does portray himself to be a gigantic idiot, BUT, he's a guy whose worked in upper management in baseball before so he surely does understand the value of traditional scouting. I have a feeling that he is more likely just playing a role for his writing career. Nobody really wants to read reasonable, well thought out dialogue on the internet, they want extremist nonsense. I think he's realized he can make more money by pretending to be the crazy nerdy saber guy instead of the smart, reasonable guy he probably is. That's the best I can guess for him, though, I have a feeling that he's pulling a Skip Bayless on all of us and pretending to be a charicature of himself for exposure.

The FJM guys A) are not members of the established baseball community, they're comedy TV writers and B) I think only took such a ridiculous over-the-top tone because, again, the target of most of their blogs were the equally ridiculous over-the-top old baseball dumb dumbs who think that the only three stats that matter are AVE, HR, and RBI. Remember, one of their best blogs was when they absolutely shredded Phil Rodgers of the Tribune for his ridiculous +1/-1 method of judging a team's off-season. Oh yeah. That was gold. How do you respond to something like that without snarky, insulting prose? It's so idiotic it's impossible.

I think if you talk to most established baseball minds they will tell you the advantages of having a strong scouting system. Even Theo Epstein, THE POSTAH BOY GAWD OF STATS has had poor Tom Ricketts pouring money into the Cubs' scouting department over the last few years.

Last edited by doublem23; 04-25-2013 at 05:19 PM.
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  #37  
Old 04-25-2013, 05:23 PM
Milw Milw is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
I can't defend Law because he does portray himself to be a gigantic idiot, BUT, he's a guy whose worked in upper management in baseball before so he surely does understand the value of traditional scouting. I have a feeling that he is more likely just playing a role for his writing career. Nobody really wants to read reasonable, well thought out dialogue on the internet, they want extremist nonsense. I think he's realized he can make more money by pretending to be the crazy nerdy saber guy instead of the smart, reasonable guy he probably is. That's the best I can guess for him, though, I have a feeling that he's pulling a Skip Bayless on all of us and pretending to be a charicature of himself for exposure.

The FJM guys A) are not members of the established baseball community, they're comedy TV writers and B) I think only took such a ridiculous over-the-top tone because, again, the target of most of their blogs were the equally ridiculous over-the-top old baseball dumb dumbs who think that the only three stats that matter are AVE, HR, and RBI. Remember, one of their best blogs was when they absolutely shredded Phil Rodgers of the Tribune for his ridiculous +1/-1 method of judging a team's off-season. Oh yeah. That was gold. How do you respond to something like that without snarky, insulting prose? It's so idiotic it's impossible.

I think if you talk to most established baseball minds they will tell you the advantages of having a strong scouting system. Even Theo Epstein, THE POSTAH BOY GAWD OF STATS has had poor Tom Ricketts pouring money into the Cubs' scouting department over the last few years.
So then Billy Beane's comment that he'd be a better GM if he didn't watch games is just him playing a caricature for exposure? Or does he not count as a "baseball insider?"
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  #38  
Old 04-25-2013, 05:25 PM
Milw Milw is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Ah, bummer, you got me. Well, in my defense, Rendon is a legitimate blue chip prospect. If he were in our organization, he'd have all the hype Beckham did (Savior of the franchise). In Washington, he's maybe the 5th or 6th best young player on their team.
Yeah. Finishing in last place five years in a row can have that effect on a minor league system.
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  #39  
Old 04-25-2013, 05:41 PM
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doublem23 doublem23 is offline
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Originally Posted by Milw View Post
So then Billy Beane's comment that he'd be a better GM if he didn't watch games is just him playing a caricature for exposure? Or does he not count as a "baseball insider?"
His teams also never win anything, so, uh, great point???

ALSO, EDIT - He did have a national bestseller written about him and a Hollywood movie made about his life in which he was portrayed by Brad Pitt, so, you know, maybe????? I don't actually have any inside knowledge of the inner workings of the A's front office

Last edited by doublem23; 04-25-2013 at 05:54 PM.
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  #40  
Old 04-25-2013, 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Milw View Post
Yeah. Finishing in last place five years in a row can have that effect on a minor league system.
And what, pray tell does that have to do with Rendon's ability as a player? Just pointing out the Bats enviable stable of young stars is a bit deeper than just Strasburg and Harper. And seriously, if turning around a team were as easy as finishing last a few consecutive seasons, that means the Pirates should be winning their 10th consecutive World Series this year, right? But no, you're right, the Nats are ruining baseball what with their focus on winning even if it means firing some old dinosaurs who don't belong in the 21st century and replacing them with THEM COMPUTER GIZMOS
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  #41  
Old 04-25-2013, 05:53 PM
Milw Milw is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Nobody would disagree with that. The only people who think there's this giant class of baseball fans that ONLY care about stats and not traditional scouting and intangibles are the ones that ONLY value traditional scouting (a la Hawk) and think that any time someone mentions something like FIP, BABIP, or, god forbid, WAR, means they must hate the human element of baseball.

Stats make baseball better. Not worse.
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His teams also never win anything, so, uh, great point???
Just pointing out the inaccuracy of your straw man argument.
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  #42  
Old 04-25-2013, 06:13 PM
DirtySox DirtySox is offline
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So no comments on said train-wreck interview? By all accounts Hawk made a complete ass of himself. TWTW is all that matters.

What a clown. The organization needs to put this embarrassment out to pasture.
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  #43  
Old 04-25-2013, 06:14 PM
soltrain21 soltrain21 is offline
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Apparently the Sox are embracing Hawk's TWTW line.

It's like they are trying their hardest to push me away.
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  #44  
Old 04-25-2013, 06:16 PM
DirtySox DirtySox is offline
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It's like they are trying their hardest to push me away.
My sentiment exactly.
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  #45  
Old 04-25-2013, 06:19 PM
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Ah, bummer, you got me. Well, in my defense, Rendon is a legitimate blue chip prospect. If he were in our organization, he'd have all the hype Beckham did (Savior of the franchise). In Washington, he's maybe the 5th or 6th best young player on their team.

You also forgot Wilson Ramos, good young catcher as well.

And dang, I went with my gut and assumed guys like Gio and Zimmermann and Detweiler were still around the 25-year mark. I was off by two years. YA GOT ME! Can I amend my statements and say they have the best collection of under-30 talent assembled, easily in my lifetime (approximately 30 years?) Will that work?

Either way, if you'd like to point and laugh and say HA HA, this guy thought a guy whose really 26 was 25, then I think it still basically underscores my point that if Hawk and his ilk are going to whine about the approach the Nationals are taking; coming off a 95-win season and still have one of the youngest rosters in the Majors (average position player age is 27.9, 2nd youngest in NL, average pitcher age is 28, essentially tied for 3rd youngest in NL) because they're firing his buddies and actually producing results on the field, then it only further demonstrates that Hawk is nothing but a senile old coot who is only still employed in baseball in any capacity because he was lucky enough to find an owner who runs his team either like a charity and not a real business, or he's too cheap to actually get someone that knows what the hell they're doing.

Hawk sucks. I can't imagine why any Sox fan would want to subject themselves to more of his idiocy than the team already shoves down our throats.
All of the Nats' blue chippers, whether with the big club or in the minors, are the kinds of talents that could have been identified without being well-versed in advanced metrics. Though I've ridiculed blind adherence to sabrmetrics (Keith Law, that means you), I recognize that they generally have been helpful in identifying talent and player tendencies that might have otherwise gone unnoticed. But elite talent does not fall in that category. On the contrary, I think over-reliance on advance metrics leads some people to overlook the obvious, if anything.
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