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  #91  
Old 04-09-2013, 07:12 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by RKMeibalane View Post
I don't think that's fair, as there are players who make significant jumps between their first and second full MLB seasons. Robin Ventura made significant strides between 1990 and 1991. July 1991, in particular, was the month that he finally seemed to hit his stride, culminating in one of the most exciting games in White Sox history.

Now, munch, watch carefully:

That has about zero relevance as Robin was picked by scouts to be pretty dang good. The book on Viciedo was (and always has been since his first professional season in the minors) that he'd never see the ball well enough to be an everyday player. Pretty much the only people saying otherwise all these years has been the White Sox organization. Maybe they're right and everyone else is wrong...but I really don't think so.
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  #92  
Old 04-09-2013, 07:16 PM
RKMeibalane RKMeibalane is offline
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That has about zero relevance as Robin was picked by scouts to be pretty dang good. The book on Viciedo was (and always has been since his first professional season in the minors) that he'd never see the ball well enough to be an everyday player. Pretty much the only people saying otherwise all these years has been the White Sox organization. Maybe they're right and everyone else is wrong...but I really don't think so.
And you believe that scouts are infallible? Robin Ventura was projected to be good, but he struggled mightily in 1989 and '90. It wasn't until the end of 1991 that he'd proven he belonged at the Major League level. Viciedo may not be projected to be as good as Ventura was, but that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve an opportunity. He's played one full season at the Major League level for an organization that doesn't have anyone waiting in their system to supplant him (though Hawkins looks like he may be a special player).
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  #93  
Old 04-09-2013, 07:24 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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And you believe that scouts are infallible? Robin Ventura was projected to be good, but he struggled mightily in 1989 and '90. It wasn't until the end of 1991 that he'd proven he belonged at the Major League level. Viciedo may not be projected to be as good as Ventura was, but that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve an opportunity. He's played one full season at the Major League level for an organization that doesn't have anyone waiting in their system to supplant him (though Hawkins looks like he may be a special player).
That he doesn't deserve an opportunity is EXACTLY what scouts have said. He hasn't shown anything in the minors that warranted his promotion to a starting role. It played out last year too. He had a negative WAR. That means on offense, a bench player could reasonably be expected to outperform him. People are such fouls for the long ball.

How many organizations would have started (and kept starting) a guy like Viciedo in the middle of a pennant race? He's starting because our system is barren and we've spent a ton of money on him. Not because of anything he's shown in his career thus far.
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  #94  
Old 04-09-2013, 07:30 PM
russ99 russ99 is offline
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Originally Posted by RKMeibalane View Post
And you believe that scouts are infallible? Robin Ventura was projected to be good, but he struggled mightily in 1989 and '90. It wasn't until the end of 1991 that he'd proven he belonged at the Major League level. Viciedo may not be projected to be as good as Ventura was, but that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve an opportunity. He's played one full season at the Major League level for an organization that doesn't have anyone waiting in their system to supplant him (though Hawkins looks like he may be a special player).
The problem here is there is no adjustment. All the talent in the world can get you only so far in the big leagues. Even the leg kick that Manto and Parent tried to get him to change up with is seemingly gone.

Tank must think he's going to see at least one pitch in an at-bat that he can jack, otherwise, why swing so wildly? That 3-0 count tonight against Gio was just awful, hacking at everything.

Tank is turning into another B.A . to me - he has one fantastic aspect to his play that some fans fall in love with, almost annoyingly so, but the full package is lacking.

And enough of that one year excuse. He now has 781 PA at the big league level, this isn't a rookie here.
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  #95  
Old 04-09-2013, 08:02 PM
RKMeibalane RKMeibalane is offline
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That he doesn't deserve an opportunity is EXACTLY what scouts have said. He hasn't shown anything in the minors that warranted his promotion to a starting role. It played out last year too.
I am aware of what the scouts have said about him. You did not answer my question: do you believe that their judgement is above reproach?

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Originally Posted by blandman
He had a negative WAR. That means on offense, a bench player could reasonably be expected to outperform him.
Yes, I am aware of what a negative WAR represents. What it does not represent is his potential for improvement, which is impossible to gauge simply by crunching numbers.

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Originally Posted by blandman
How many organizations would have started (and kept starting) a guy like Viciedo in the middle of a pennant race?
I don't know the answer to this question, but it doesn't matter, as it's not relevant. Viciedo doesn't play for another organization. He plays for the White Sox, it matters only how they use him. You're moving the goalposts again.

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Originally Posted by blandman
He's starting because our system is barren and we've spent a ton of money on him. Not because of anything he's shown in his career thus far.
This point I agree with, as it's likely that the Sox would employ a different starting LF if there were a superior player available, either through their farm system or via trade. As I said, if Courtney Hawkins develops as expected (which is by no means a certainty), it's possible that he replaces Viciedo, and Dayan's weaknesses at the plate are no longer an issue where the White Sox are concerned.
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  #96  
Old 04-09-2013, 08:23 PM
RKMeibalane RKMeibalane is offline
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The problem here is there is no adjustment. All the talent in the world can get you only so far in the big leagues. Even the leg kick that Manto and Parent tried to get him to change up with is seemingly gone.
I agree that his approach at the plate is extremely poor, and I also agree that it's disappointing that he appears either unwilling or unable to incorporate the suggestions of the coaching staff into said approach as a means of improving his chances of making solid contact. While either scenario is certainly discouraging, neither means that his approach is beyond repair.

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Originally Posted by russ99
Tank must think he's going to see at least one pitch in an at-bat that he can jack, otherwise, why swing so wildly? That 3-0 count tonight against Gio was just awful, hacking at everything.
I don't know what Viciedo is thinking when he's at the plate. Only he knows why he chooses to swing at certain pitches. As I said, his approach at the plate is poor, and a poor plate approach will almost certainly lead to poor results. What is difficult for me- and for the Sox coaching staff, apparently- is whether his poor approach is the result of a physical or mental weakness, or perhaps some combination of the two. I may be able to recognize even subtle injuries by watching a person's body language, but it's more difficult to determine one's approach to hitting a baseball by doing so.

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Originally Posted by russ99
Tank is turning into another B.A . to me - he has one fantastic aspect to his play that some fans fall in love with, almost annoyingly so, but the full package is lacking.
I agree that he doesn't have the full package, but honestly, how many players in baseball today truly use or display all five tools regularly? Miguel Cabrera was the American League MVP last season. Most people would characterize him as a "two-tool" player (by hitting for average and power), albeit an extremely effective two-tool player.

Viciedio will never be Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, or even Justin Upton, but I don't know of anyone here who believes that he will be. The fluff piece comparing him with Heyward is exactly that, fluff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by russ99
And enough of that one year excuse. He now has 781 PA at the big league level, this isn't a rookie here.
I never said that he was a rookie. I said that I think he needs more time, and, as the Sox have no one ready to replace him, it seems reasonable to provide him with playing time as a means of seeing whether he will improve. If he does, then the Sox may have a serviceable player on their roster who can contribute as they wait for Hawkins, Barnum, and others to develop. If he does not, it's unlikely that the Sox fortunes will change significantly if he tossed aside. They'll just have to find someone else to play LF until a suitable long-term replacement is available.
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  #97  
Old 04-09-2013, 09:51 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by RKMeibalane View Post
I am aware of what the scouts have said about him. You did not answer my question: do you believe that their judgement is above reproach?



Yes, I am aware of what a negative WAR represents. What it does not represent is his potential for improvement, which is impossible to gauge simply by crunching numbers.



I don't know the answer to this question, but it doesn't matter, as it's not relevant. Viciedo doesn't play for another organization. He plays for the White Sox, it matters only how they use him. You're moving the goalposts again.



This point I agree with, as it's likely that the Sox would employ a different starting LF if there were a superior player available, either through their farm system or via trade. As I said, if Courtney Hawkins develops as expected (which is by no means a certainty), it's possible that he replaces Viciedo, and Dayan's weaknesses at the plate are no longer an issue where the White Sox are concerned.
Scouts are not above reproach, but I can't think of a single instance that a guy went beyond what is a pretty strong consensus.

Potential for improvement is gauged by scouts. Fixing hitches or holes in swings or even approach. Viciedo has above average bat speed and zero eye. He's been able to squeak by lower levels (and this has been repeated over and over by every major scouting publication) because his bat speed allowed him to compensate at those levels. However, he does not possess the raw bat speed of a Vlad Guerrerro or Alfonso Soriano, so that approach will not ever translate to major league success. His best bet is complete reconstruction of his swing with an extreme emphasis on seeing the ball as long as possible. That could take years, and is more of a longshot project than it is "potential".

I'm not moving the goalposts. I don't believe, 100%, that Viciedo would have been called up in any other organization. The point I was making is that he's below even bench caliber, since he's below average both at the plate and in the field, and does not project to succeed to boot.
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  #98  
Old 04-10-2013, 08:29 AM
RKMeibalane RKMeibalane is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Scouts are not above reproach, but I can't think of a single instance that a guy went beyond what is a pretty strong consensus.

Potential for improvement is gauged by scouts. Fixing hitches or holes in swings or even approach. Viciedo has above average bat speed and zero eye. He's been able to squeak by lower levels (and this has been repeated over and over by every major scouting publication) because his bat speed allowed him to compensate at those levels. However, he does not possess the raw bat speed of a Vlad Guerrerro or Alfonso Soriano, so that approach will not ever translate to major league success. His best bet is complete reconstruction of his swing with an extreme emphasis on seeing the ball as long as possible. That could take years, and is more of a longshot project than it is "potential".

I'm not moving the goalposts. I don't believe, 100%, that Viciedo would have been called up in any other organization. The point I was making is that he's below even bench caliber, since he's below average both at the plate and in the field, and does not project to succeed to boot.
I think I should be clear about a few things:

  • I don't necessarily believe that Dayan Viciedo is the long-term answer for the White Sox in left field, and I've never said anything to suggest otherwise. I also agree with those who believe that his swing has significant holes, and that his approach at the plate is extremely poor.
  • Having said that, I believe that there is an aspect of this situation that the acolytes of jeremyb1 are overlooking: the White Sox have no one available to replace Viciedo if they decide to sit him.
  • Munch points out that Viciedo's WAR was negative in 2012, which suggests that the Sox would have been better off with another player occupying his spot on the roster. This is a fair point, but it does not address the most important issue in a situation like this.
  • If a particular player is not playing well enough to justify his spot in the lineup, he cannot be replaced unless such a replacement player is actually available to assume his spot. The White Sox farm system is largely devoid of Major League talent at the highest levels. Players projected to have success (Courtney Hawkins) aren't yet ready to compete for a job with the Sox. Otherwise, Hawkins would have participated in Spring Training in an effort to win Viciedo's job.
  • As the Sox have no one would can play in Viciedo's absence, it makes the most sense for the Sox to continue starting him in LF, in the (perhaps unlikely) event that he improves significantly enough to help his team more effectively.
  • Finally, I find the argument of whether a particular player would start on another roster to be extremely tiresome. What a player would be allowed were he part of another Major League team is irrelevant. Dayan Viciedo doesn't play for another team: he plays for White Sox, and it matters only whether his presence helps White Sox win, not what he would be expected to do playing elsewhere.
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  #99  
Old 04-10-2013, 10:56 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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I think I should be clear about a few things:

  • I don't necessarily believe that Dayan Viciedo is the long-term answer for the White Sox in left field, and I've never said anything to suggest otherwise. I also agree with those who believe that his swing has significant holes, and that his approach at the plate is extremely poor.
  • Having said that, I believe that there is an aspect of this situation that the acolytes of jeremyb1 are overlooking: the White Sox have no one available to replace Viciedo if they decide to sit him.
  • Munch points out that Viciedo's WAR was negative in 2012, which suggests that the Sox would have been better off with another player occupying his spot on the roster. This is a fair point, but it does not address the most important issue in a situation like this.
  • If a particular player is not playing well enough to justify his spot in the lineup, he cannot be replaced unless such a replacement player is actually available to assume his spot. The White Sox farm system is largely devoid of Major League talent at the highest levels. Players projected to have success (Courtney Hawkins) aren't yet ready to compete for a job with the Sox. Otherwise, Hawkins would have participated in Spring Training in an effort to win Viciedo's job.
  • As the Sox have no one would can play in Viciedo's absence, it makes the most sense for the Sox to continue starting him in LF, in the (perhaps unlikely) event that he improves significantly enough to help his team more effectively.
  • Finally, I find the argument of whether a particular player would start on another roster to be extremely tiresome. What a player would be allowed were he part of another Major League team is irrelevant. Dayan Viciedo doesn't play for another team: he plays for White Sox, and it matters only whether his presence helps White Sox win, not what he would be expected to do playing elsewhere.
I think most of this is fair, I just don't think people realize how bad Viciedo actually is. There are plenty of available better options, even on our roster. DeWayne Wise actually posted a positive WAR as an outfielder last season (which should indicate more conclusively how bad Viciedo really is). Given his tremendous defensive advantage, it makes absolutely no sense why we continue to start Viciedo. Cut you losses already.
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  #100  
Old 04-10-2013, 11:21 AM
RKMeibalane RKMeibalane is offline
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I think most of this is fair, I just don't think people realize how bad Viciedo actually is. There are plenty of available better options, even on our roster. DeWayne Wise actually posted a positive WAR as an outfielder last season (which should indicate more conclusively how bad Viciedo really is). Given his tremendous defensive advantage, it makes absolutely no sense why we continue to start Viciedo. Cut you losses already.
Be careful. Wise's WAR was barely positive, and occurred in limited playing time. Although one component of the WAR calculation (replacement level runs) is based on playing time, it's difficult to know how Wise may have fared had he received more playing time with the Yankees and White Sox.

I'll add by saying that Ventura and the rest of the White Sox coaching staff are with the players on a daily basis. Although I don't believe Ventura is infallible, I trust him to do his job competently, and am willing to accept that he may see things in his players that I'm not able to. If he isn't starting Wise over Viciedo, I would imagine he has sufficient reason for not making any changes.
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  #101  
Old 04-10-2013, 11:53 AM
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doublem23 doublem23 is offline
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Given his tremendous defensive advantage, it makes absolutely no sense why we continue to start Viciedo. Cut you losses already.
Because the Sox have made a significant investment in Viciedo and now's the time to find out what they have in the guy. Playing AAAA Dewayne Wise everyday is a pointless exercise.

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I'll add by saying that Ventura and the rest of the White Sox coaching staff are with the players on a daily basis. Although I don't believe Ventura is infallible, I trust him to do his job competently, and am willing to accept that he may see things in his players that I'm not able to. If he isn't starting Wise over Viciedo, I would imagine he has sufficient reason for not making any changes.
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  #102  
Old 04-10-2013, 11:56 AM
kufram kufram is offline
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This conversation is absolutely enthralling.... but I have to wash my hair.
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  #103  
Old 04-10-2013, 12:02 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Because the Sox have made a significant investment in Viciedo and now's the time to find out what they have in the guy. Playing AAAA Dewayne Wise everyday is a pointless exercise.



Precisely
Unwisely spending ten million dollars is not a reason to sabotage your team.
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  #104  
Old 04-10-2013, 12:09 PM
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Unwisely spending ten million dollars is not a reason to sabotage your team.
Well, you know, I don't think playing Wise everyday in LF and calling up Little Danks to be the 4th outfield is going to magically find the Sox another handful of wins they wouldn't have gotten with Viciedo in LF. if you go on last year's WAR, the Sox would have finished what? 86-76 instead of 85-77. Hardly seems worthy of casting away a 24-year-old whom you've invested $13 million in his development
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  #105  
Old 04-10-2013, 12:12 PM
RKMeibalane RKMeibalane is offline
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Unwisely spending ten million dollars is not a reason to sabotage your team.
It's also not a reason to give playing time to an individual who, despite being drafted almost sixteen years ago, has never proven that he can handle playing everyday at the Major League level. Jesus Christ, you're a broken record. What is wrong with you?
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