Originally Posted by TheOldRoman
Not at all. And that's why it's silly that BP even puts these predictions out. Look, you had a tantrum early about people not respecting BP's authori-tah. You say they are well respected, well read, used by front offices, that's fine. Then you say that although those numbers are very relevant and accurate, their predictions are inaccurate and "for fun". The fact that they have to defend their very flawed model by saying "you shouldn't take them that seriously" speaks volumes.
So, whatever credibility they have on other statistics is jeopardized through them putting out these numbers which you and they admit are flawed. Even if they are an authority on stats, they are self-admittedly not one on predictions. The fact that they include a caveat emptor with their predictions shows as much.
Holy ****, you don't understand this stuff at all, do you? How many times does it need to be reminded that the team projections they publish represent only the tiniest fraction of work they do? Yes, everyone knows that projecting an entire 162-game baseball season in February is incredibly difficult and no, nobody is going to take their life savings to Vegas an plop it down on 77 wins for the Sox because BP said so.
Anyone who understands this stuff concentrates on their INDIVIDUAL PLAYER assessments and projections, which is far more reliable and useful. THAT'S
why BP is so well read and respected amongst the professional baseball community. Again, just like a news show broadcasting a joke segment on April Fool's Day... Everyone knows that segment is "just for kicks" for a special day, but it doesn't add or take away from their integrity the rest of the year.