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  #286  
Old 02-15-2013, 09:57 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
So they disagree with your personal percieved strength between the Sox and M's.

I gotta say, it's somewhat hilarious to have people who earlier in the thread were so adamant that it's impossible to forecast baseball can be so adamant that there's no way the Mariners could be better than the Sox this year. Pretty god damn hilarious.
And, again, if the Sox were forecasted at like 50+%, people would be praising the prognostication.
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  #287  
Old 02-15-2013, 09:58 AM
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doublem23 doublem23 is offline
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
And, again, if the Sox were forecasted at like 50+%, people would be praising the prognostication.


BP finally respects us!!!
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  #288  
Old 02-15-2013, 09:58 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by TheOldRoman View Post
Even if a person thought the Mariners would be better than the Sox this year, the Sox still have a better chance of making it in. It's common sense.
Christ, you don't see that this is any more/less valid than BP's predictions? Is everyone in this thread crazy?
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  #289  
Old 02-15-2013, 09:59 AM
Mr. Jinx Mr. Jinx is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
They cleaned the slate on the Play-off Odds Reports this morning. For the American League:
  1. Detroit - 82.6%
  2. New York - 69.9%
  3. Los Angeles - 68.3%
  4. Texas - 52.9%
  5. Tampa Bay - 44.2%
  6. Boston - 39.4%
  7. Toronto - 33.3%
  8. Oakland - 32.7%
  9. Cleveland - 24.9%
  10. Seattle - 17.8%
  11. WHITE SOX - 15.2%
  12. Kansas City - 12.1%
  13. Baltimore - 4.8%
  14. Minnesota - 1.5%
  15. Houston - 0.4%
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
That's way too high for Houston!
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  #290  
Old 02-15-2013, 10:01 AM
TheOldRoman TheOldRoman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
So they disagree with your personal percieved strength between the Sox and M's.

I gotta say, it's somewhat hilarious to have people who earlier in the thread were so adamant that it's impossible to forecast baseball can be so adamant that there's no way the Mariners could be better than the Sox this year. Pretty god damn hilarious.
Well, you've been trying to dance around it because you don't want to look like you are making personal jabs, but since nobdoy else has yet commented on their odds ZOMG! You're talking about me. No need to hide behind "some people".

I don't believe I said that it's impossible to forecast baseball, but it is very difficult as there are two many variables. However, whatever BP uses to forecast wins is, at least when it comes to the Sox, is clearly very flawed. That's not really disputable. Furthermore, the Mariners could be better than the Sox. I didn't say it was impossible. Hell, the Astros could make it in. I'm not going to make up numbers to show that I am some fake authority on it, but it's possible. Anyway,all things considered (strengths, weaknesses, other teams in the division), it would be silly to think that even if the Mariners were more talented than the Sox, they would have a better chance of making it in.
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  #291  
Old 02-15-2013, 10:03 AM
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asindc asindc is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
They cleaned the slate on the Play-off Odds Reports this morning. For the American League:
  1. Detroit - 82.6%
  2. New York - 69.9%
  3. Los Angeles - 68.3%
  4. Texas - 52.9%
  5. Tampa Bay - 44.2%
  6. Boston - 39.4%
  7. Toronto - 33.3%
  8. Oakland - 32.7%
  9. Cleveland - 24.9%
  10. Seattle - 17.8%
  11. WHITE SOX - 15.2%
  12. Kansas City - 12.1%
  13. Baltimore - 4.8%
  14. Minnesota - 1.5%
  15. Houston - 0.4%
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
Other than NYY (based on reputation, I believe), CLE, BOS, and SEA being higher on the list than they should be, I think that's about right.
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  #292  
Old 02-15-2013, 10:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOldRoman View Post
it would be silly to think that even if the Mariners were more talented than the Sox, they would have a better chance of making it in.
Apparently not

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
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  #293  
Old 02-15-2013, 10:11 AM
TheOldRoman TheOldRoman is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
What does that prove? You linked to the same nonsense you posted a little bit ago. It said it would be "silly" to think that the Mariners have a better chance of making it in. That link is silly.

As I said, BP is showing fake authority. You or I can make predictions, same as BP. However, we we don't put fake numbers behind them. By fabricating percentages, they are making it look like there is something substantial to those predictions which there isn't. I don't pull numbers out of my ass to make my predictions seem more accurate.
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  #294  
Old 02-15-2013, 10:16 AM
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doublem23 doublem23 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOldRoman View Post
What does that prove? You linked to the same nonsense you posted a little bit ago. It said it would be "silly" to think that the Mariners have a better chance of making it in. That link is silly.

As I said, BP is showing fake authority. You or I can make predictions, same as BP. However, we we don't put fake numbers behind them. By fabricating percentages, they are making it look like there is something substantial to those predictions which there isn't. I don't pull numbers out of my ass to make my predictions seem more accurate.
You can pout and stomp your feet about it all you want, but BP is more of an authority on the subject than either you or I.
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  #295  
Old 02-15-2013, 10:17 AM
amsteel amsteel is offline
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Baseball Prospectus, according to WSI:
http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/h...wing-darts.jpg
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  #296  
Old 02-15-2013, 10:21 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
Christ, you don't see that this is any more/less valid than BP's predictions? Is everyone in this thread crazy?
I know I am!
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  #297  
Old 02-15-2013, 10:22 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by amsteel View Post
Baseball Prospectus, according to WSI:
http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/h...wing-darts.jpg
Houston's going all the way.
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  #298  
Old 02-15-2013, 10:23 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Mr. Jinx View Post
That's way too high for Houston!
You joke, but that's probably true. They're the worst team in baseball in probably the best division in baseball.
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  #299  
Old 02-15-2013, 10:24 AM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Time for Daver to weigh in.

Lip
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  #300  
Old 02-15-2013, 10:27 AM
TheOldRoman TheOldRoman is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
You can pout and stomp your feet about it all you want, but BP is more of an authority on the subject than either you or I.
Not at all. And that's why it's silly that BP even puts these predictions out. Look, you had a tantrum early about people not respecting BP's authori-tah. You say they are well respected, well read, used by front offices, that's fine. Then you say that although those numbers are very relevant and accurate, their predictions don't reflect poorly on them because they are just "for fun". The fact that they have to defend their very flawed model by saying "you shouldn't take them that seriously" speaks volumes.

So, whatever credibility they have on other statistics is jeopardized through them putting out these numbers which you and they admit are flawed. Even if they are an authority on stats, they are self-admittedly not one on predictions. The fact that they include a caveat emptor with their predictions shows as much.
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