BP Sox projection.

[TheVulture]

Originally Posted by TheOldRoman

Cabera's triple crown season saw him best his previous career highs by 7 homers and 13 RBIs, while hitting 14 homers and collecting 24 more RBI than the year before. 2012 was by far the best season of his career. So, no, he wouldn't be likely to reproduce that season based on his career at this point and him being 30

Don't forget 2012 was the only season Cabrera had Fielder protecting him in the lineup. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that is going to change.

[WhiteSox5187]

I'm sure someone has already said this but BP and Pecota have almost always been wrong. The one year they were right was in 2007 and that year they said the strength of the White Sox was their bullpen. Oops.

Having said that, I think that 77 wins is a fairly accurate representation of our win total this year. What I find surprising is that they think the Indians are better than the Royals, as the Indians have ZERO pitching. I also don't understand how they think the Cubs could have improved by 16 wins by Edwin Jackson and a closer in his 30s who has never thrown a pitch in a professional league in the United States. Their methodology makes no sense to me.

[spawn]

Originally Posted by blandman

There isn't anything that says his return timetable isn't in question as regards to the beginning of the year, so absolutely not. That Danks SHOULD be there opening day is the questionable statement, the only mention of it is Danks himself being optimistic in reaction to the team's timetable.

Yes, but you are the only one stating he will likely miss the first month of the season, so yes, you are doing just that...posting a rumor as a fact without evidence to back it up.

And let's make one thing clear. You aren't being subjected to personal attacks. That's just ridiculous.

[dickallen15]

Originally Posted by blandman

We aren't even talking about the WS, we're talking about the division. The playoffs are a crap-shoot. The best team almost never wins. But if you wanna make a bet on the division this year, I'm all ears.

So you just admit there is no possible way you wouldn't be pessimistic about the White sox this year. You have proclaimed the Tigers the best team in baseball, and I think you even mentioned they may set a record for wins a month or so ago. So in order for the White Sox to beat them, they would have to be the best team in baseball, and you say the best team almost never wins the World Series. So any way it Is sliced, the season is doomed.

[Dibbs]

Ahhh, the BP projection is always one of my favorite times of the year. Could anything be more useless? They aren't close.

Projection actual difference
2005 80-82 99-63 +19
2006 82-80 90-72 +8
2007 73-89 72-90 -1
2008 77-85 89-74* +12
2009 73-89 79-83 +6
2010 79-83 88-74 +9
2011 82-80 79-83 -3
2012 78-84 85-77 +7

[blandman]

Originally Posted by dickallen15

So you just admit there is no possible way you wouldn't be pessimistic about the White sox this year. You have proclaimed the Tigers the best team in baseball, and I think you even mentioned they may set a record for wins a month or so ago. So in order for the White Sox to beat them, they would have to be the best team in baseball, and you say the best team almost never wins the World Series. So any way it Is sliced, the season is doomed.

In that the Tiger's are probably best in baseball and we're somewhere south of the middle of the pact? Yes. That's pretty much EVERY synopsis on the upcoming season you'll read not on a team's fan site.

Why would you be optimistic? There's really no reason to be. I don't think accepting the truth of the situation is necessarily pessimistic though.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by spawn

Yes, but you are the only one stating he will likely miss the first month of the season, so yes, you are doing just that...posting a rumor as a fact without evidence to back it up.

And let's make one thing clear. You aren't being subjected to personal attacks. That's just ridiculous.

Fair on the exact wording, but I've read it plenty too. That I'm not being attacked on everything I write no matter what? Please. But whatever. Children will be children. It isn't about the wording I use. It's about getting me. There was no reason to look at my comment and think it was off-base in the first place, as every publication, even included in this thread, has mentioned john would be held back. No exact time, but a month is pretty damn optimistic. If I wanted to exaggerate, I'd have said half the season. The truth is, if it's a month, we're really lucky. There's no timetable for a reason. There's no good guess other than he's not going to be ready.

[MtGrnwdSoxFan]

Originally Posted by blandman

In that the Tiger's are probably best in baseball and we're somewhere south of the middle of the pact? Yes. That's pretty much EVERY synopsis on the upcoming season you'll read not on a team's fan site.

Why would you be optimistic? There's really no reason to be. I don't think accepting the truth of the situation is necessarily pessimistic though.

Maybe because baseball is the one sport where hardly anything turns out as predicted?

Did anyone see the Nationals winning the NL East? No, the preseason synopsis was that was the Marlins' division, and it wasn't even close. There was NO way the mighty Marlins could possibly have fell on their face and blown it all up by midseason.

The NL West was nothing but Dodgers this, Dodgers that, who would they have pitch in the first game of the NLCS versus the Marlins, etc. Wait, the Dodgers didn't win the division? Huh. I thought the Giants never had a chance, according to the prognosticators. And they won the World Series too? Dear god.

The AL West was going to be a two team race between the Rangers and Angels, with the A's and Mariners nothing but spectators as the two titans slug it out. So, why did the A's win the division again, and both the Rangers and Angels were spectators during the playoffs?

Sure, people predicted the Yanks would win the AL East, but they also predicted the wild card would come from the East too...the Red Sox. They were half-right: the wild card team did indeed come from the East, but since when did the Red Sox wear orange and have a bird as their logo?

The AL Central was going to be clinched by the Tigers by early August. Everyone else was nothing but afterthoughts. So, why did the Tigers suck so bad up until they got hot in late September, in conjunction with a White Sox collapse?

People can predict all they want, but in this game, NOTHING is ever a sure thing. There's too many variables at play in this game. So that's why people pooh-pooh your claims of ABSOLUTE TIGER SUPERIORITY and opt to just wait until all 162 games are played.

[central44]

Originally Posted by blandman

In that the Tiger's are probably best in baseball and we're somewhere south of the middle of the pact? Yes. That's pretty much EVERY synopsis on the upcoming season you'll read not on a team's fan site.

Yes. Nobody is arguing this. The Tigers look like one of the best teams in baseball. The Sox on paper don't have the same offense. Everybody agrees with you.

Why would you be optimistic? There's really no reason to be. I don't think accepting the truth of the situation is necessarily pessimistic though.

Annnnnd this is the garbage that makes people call you out. No reason to be optimistic? Seriously? You're basically saying here that there is nothing, not a single thing to look forward to this season, that it's a foregone conclusion that it's going to absolutley suck and we shouldnt even bother with it. You cite "experts" as proof--experts who are wrong just as often as they are correct.

But that's not even it. It's the attitude of "this team is going to be terrible and anyone who can't see that is an idiot." Despite the fact that people said the same thing last season, and the Sox won 85 games (and handed the division to Detroit-they had it virtually won before they choked). As though the Sox don't have a lot of young players who still have a chance to improve, or a guy in Rios who had an outstanding season, or a legitimate ace in Sale and a former Cy Young winner in Peavy, or a talented young manager entering only his second season, or one of the best defenses and top pitching staffs in baseball top to bottom.

No, when it comes to the Sox, all that bears mentioning is the negative, all the time. Nothing positive can possibly happen, we need to assume the worst and if we don't, we're stupid. Meanwhile, Detroit is going to have everything go right all year for some reason I still don't understand--probably just because they don't play in Chicago.

The Sox MIGHT be terrible this year. They also might NOT be. There's a chance they could be really good, and Detroit will be ravaged by injuries. Who knows? It's spring training, that's an exciting time of year, and people want to talk about baseball--but every thread has been devolving into the same pissing match over and over again. They all blend together at this point--someone makes a topic, and pretty soon its invaded by some variation of "it's not going to matter, this team sucks, these guys are going to get hurt, etc." and then we're back here.

It's not personal attacks. It's just really old at this point.

[Soxman219]

As long as the Sox are in a crappy division like the AL Central, we're never out of it.

[voodoochile]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Ignoring the fact that most people are aware that PECOTA Team Projections are more or less a fun exercise in statistical modeling and not to be taken as serious, carved in stone predictions, if you're measuring their accuracy against actual W-L record you've already demonstronstrated your ignorance as to what this projection is actually measuring. Just in case you wonder why nobody ever cares about your ERRRGH STANDARD DEVIATION argument.

I see so it's a statistically derived projection that isn't really meant to be a projection, more just some kind of something something fun... or something...

Good times... Have fun with that...

Glad I never gave them any money since they aren't really serious about their projections and all and didn't jump up and down, beat their chests and point with glee the one year they got one team's projection dead on (just happened to be the Sox) Even if the reasons they said those numbers would be the way they are were completely opposite of the reason they actually were that way and they pulled a blind fart out of a dead skunk's ass and then whiffed it and said, "This is the greatest blind fart anyone has ever whiffed, give us moar money plox!" it matters not because...

FUN!

or something...

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by voodoochile

I see so it's a statistically derived projection that isn't really meant to be a projection, more just some kind of something something fun... or something...

Good times... Have fun with that...

Glad I never gave them any money since they aren't really serious about their projections and all and didn't jump up and down, beat their chests and point with glee the one year they got one team's projection dead on (just happened to be the Sox) Even if the reasons they said those numbers would be the way they are were completely opposite of the reason they actually were that way and they pulled a blind fart out of a dead skunk's ass and then whiffed it and said, "This is the greatest blind fart anyone has ever whiffed, give us moar money plox!" it matters not because...

FUN!

or something...

Apparently all this content I read from them that is not related to the preseason predictions must be from someone else.

Really, the only reason they are even this big of a deal is because they are blown out of proportion by idiots.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by Whitesox029

Clearly you are unfamiliar with the concept of an "analogy". An analogy is not meant to compare two situations in every possible way. Obviously baseball is not random, and PECOTA is not merely a bunch of averages. That isn't the point. I am not trivializing the difference between "weighted statistical models" and random events any more than I would be trivializing the difference between fish and mammals if I were to say sharks:teeth::whales:baleen. Obviously, These two animals are very different in many ways. The analogy would be pointing out nothing more than the fact that teeth and baleen are located in the same place on the animal's anatomy--AND NOTHING MORE. It does not imply that they serve the same purpose or that they are made of the same material (they don't, and they're not).

I realize that I've just used an analogy to explain the concept of analogies, but bear with me.

Likewise, my die analogy does not imply that PECOTA is nothing more than arithmetic means. I will spell it out for you again: The analogy is that in both the case of the die roll, and the case of executives who place a lot of weight on PECOTA projections, you have a person who is basing an important decision purely on numbers, where there are other factors at play. In the case of the die, the other factor is that 3.5 is not a number on a die. In the case of PECOTA, the other factors are various--managers, team chemistry, fan support, etc, etc.
In a way though, you did grasp my point--guessing 3.5 as a die roll is obviously absurdly stupid. I'm arguing that basing baseball decisions PURELY on numbers is also pretty damn stupid, if not as stupid as the former.

NO, YOUR ANALOGY JUST SUCKS, GUY. You obviously have no idea what you're talking about, the fact that you keep hammering on this ridiculous notion that someone who understands how stats and probability work would actually come up with 3.5 as the most likely number to come up on a 6-sided dice only goes to prove that. By your logic, I could say that the printed word is useless because look, if I pound away on my keyboard I get:

kjsadkljs dkljsdajsadflkjdsak j;sdafoi;dsfaij;lsefio;efsaiusdaf iljsdfailusdailusdafli jsdalijsdafkljs daiusdakljs kjsadkjldsai ouewq98p321p981234n osadiodfsaioufdsankasfd waoqw943wq9 0qr2niqcw swoqwoqwfe;onqwf q0923140r1oqfcq 292431oql;kqnq sisnscnmcslq w0wq

None of that makes any sense, ergo, reading, writing, etc... Totally useless.

This is, of course, a completely invalid argument because anyone would note that if you don't follow the simple rules of grammar, spelling, etc. you will get jibberish. Likewise, if you don't follow the rules of basic stats and probability, you will get jibberish. But your worthless example that "3.5 is the most common number to come up on a 6-sided dice" doesn't invalidate stats and probability any more than my worthless keyboard pounding invalidates reading or writing. It just proves when you do stupid things, you get stupid answers.

And yes, comparing weighted models like PECOTA to random events, again, underscores that you do not have a solid grasp of these ideas. A person betting on which number a dice roll will come next can get no help from looking back at the last 10,000 times that dice was rolled. The next number up is a completely random event. But, much in the same way you probably think Paul Konerko will be a better hitter this season than Gordon Beckham or Tyler Flowers, PECOTA does take past results into consideration and likewise, will probably tell you Konerko is more likely to be successful hitting this season than Beckham or Flowers. It is a weighted model designed to take past results and make an educated guess, much like you when you watch the Sox and then look at their projected lineups and rosters on paper in February. Just because you disagree with the way PECOTA or any other model works does not mean they are just taking magic numbers out of the sky. There is an actual method to that mean. So to say it's the same thing as rolling a dice and getting 3.5 shows that you really have no idea what you're talking about.

[tstrike2000]

Originally Posted by TheOldRoman

The Sox offense was better than the vaunted Tigers' offense last year. And that was with Viciedo in his first full season and with a complete black hole at 3B, even after Youkilis was acquired. But of course, nobody on the Sox will improve at all, all their vets will hit massive cliffs, Sale will totally get injured cuz he's skinny, Peavy's arm is likely to fall off just because he once had a surgery or something, and Danks might never throw a baseball again because I said so. Meanwhile, Torii Hunter will repeat the career season he had at age 36, Victor Martinez will come back from major surgery just as good as before, and rampant obesity will somehow propel the middle of Detroit's lineup to hit even better than last year.

There is a line from The Usual Suspects, "the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist." In that same vein, the most impressive thing BP ever did was convince people it was relevant.

[TheOldRoman]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Really, the only reason they are even this big of a deal is because they are blown out of proportion by idiots.

Yes. Blown out of proportion by idiots who get mad when others don't take BP seriously for making predictions that are continually well off. Idiots who say "THEY ARE WELL RESPECTED!" and then say the predictions are irrelevant and people are dumb for putting too much stock into them.