Are we really going into the season with no veteran catcher?

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by Lip Man 1

Am very, very surprised the Sox haven't done more to this point.

For right now, Hahn is taking a chance, we'll see how it turns out. Apparently all his talk about things in the works around Sox-fest time were simply BS.

Not a good start by him in my opinion.

Lip

I agree, I don't see where he has done anything to improve the team at all except for signing the relief pitcher from Arizona. He must be banking on a lot of assumptions this year.

[DSpivack]

Originally Posted by mahagga73

I agree, I don't see where he has done anything to improve the team at all except for signing the relief pitcher from Arizona. He must be banking on a lot of assumptions this year.

Jeff Keppinger should be a big improvement at 3B.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by DSpivack

Jeff Keppinger should be a big improvement at 3B.

Third wasn't the black hole everyone makes it out to be. It wasn't the black hole 2nd was, or LF was for stretches. It certainly wasn't the black hole we're going to have a C. And unless Keppinger is making up that difference between AJ's career season and black hole offense, it isn't even a wash.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by blandman

Third wasn't the black hole everyone makes it out to be. It wasn't the black hole 2nd was, or LF was for stretches. It certainly wasn't the black hole we're going to have a C. And unless Keppinger is making up that difference between AJ's career season and black hole offense, it isn't even a wash.

What? The Sox's 3B collectively hit .201/.286/.314 last season, easily the worst production at that position in the American League (league average - .261/.320/.420). And this is before you even consider Youkilis's non-existent defense for much of the 2nd half. The Sox 3B play was a complete disaster last season.

[SoxNation05]

C - Production will decrease. (-2)
Flowers' projection: .235/.315 22 HRs 56 RBIs
Pierzynski's 2012: .278/.326 27 HRs 78 RBIs

Flowers gets on base at clip higher than you would think. My projection may be a little generous but I don't know if we are losing the huge amount of offense everyone refers to. We will miss AJ's clutchness and hitting w/ RISP (2012: .316)

1B- Production will remain about the same. (+0)
Konerko's Projection: .285/.360 28 HRs 85 RBIs
Konerko's 2012: .298/.371 26 HRs 75 RBIs

He will be healthier so his stats will improve but no one should expect him to hit the way he did early last year.

2B- Production will remain the same or improve slightly. (+.5)
Beckham's Projection: .245/.310 18 HRs 65 RBIs
Beckham's 2012: .234/.296 16 HRs 60 RBIs

His discipline has been horrible and I hope to see some improvement on it along with his ability to battle of off speed pitches. Aside from that, his BABIP makes him very unlucky and he should see improvement with an average BABIP

3B- Production will remain the same but add a little consistency. (+0)
Keppinger Projection: .290/.328 14 HRs 50 RBIs
Morel 2012: 35 games .177/.225 0 HRs 5 RBIs
Hudson 2012 at 3B: 89 At bats .169/.245 1 HR 11 RBIs
Youkilis 2012: 80 games .236/.346 15 HRs 46 RBIs

While we can't be sure what to expect from Keppinger our 3B production was horrible sans June/early July. I expect at least some consistency

SS- Production should improve slightly (+.5)
Ramirez's Projection: .275/.308 15 HRs 72 RBIs
Ramirez's 2012: .265/.287 9 HRs 73 RBIs

Last year was Alexei's worst statistical year to date. He only had through 2 HRs through June and posted his first OBP below .300. I think he will move a little closer to his career average

LF- Production should improve (+1)
Viciedo's Projection: .265/.320 28 HRs 81 RBIs
Viciedo's 2012: .255/.300 25 HRs 78 RBIs

Viciedo's AVG by month last year: .206, .351, .179, .256, .253, .221.
Terrible months show the inconsistency Viciedo dealt with in his first full season. With a second year with Manto and hopefully more consistency he should improve with time. Only turns 24 in March

CF Projection should stay the same (+0)
De Aza's projection: .278/ .344 10 HRs 54 RBI's
De Aza's 2012: .281/.349 9HRs 50 RBIs

De Aza's production should remain about the same barring an injury. I like the fact that his statistics are even from pre and post all star break splits. Bascially, once the scouting report was out on him, he adjusted too and didn't suffer.

RF Production should remain the same (+0)
Rios Projection: .290/ .326 26 HRs 82 RBIs
Rios 2012: .304/.334 25 HRs 91 RBIs

Rios is still only 31 so we should not see much decrease in his production. Suprisingly, Rios hit over .300 against RHP last year. Unless Rios head issues come back into play and he hits .200 again, he has the talent, ability and age to continue his production.

DH Production should remain about the same (+0)
Dunn's projection: .211/.346 42 HRs 103 RBIs
Dunn's 2012: .204/.333 41 HRs 96 RBIs

Dunn is a tough player to evaluate. I think we could expect the same production and I don't expect less. If anything he could get better but it's to expect the same.


Basically using these silly, rudimentary statistics one could project that we are probably going to have a very similar offensive projection as last year. An offense that was good for the 4th most runs in the AL. As long as we do not have any collapses we should be alright. People are a little too worried about our line up IMO. While we are not going to smash anyone out of the park, our pitching should keep us in the majority of the games.

[DeadMoney]

Originally Posted by blandman

Third wasn't the black hole everyone makes it out to be. It wasn't the black hole 2nd was, or LF was for stretches. It certainly wasn't the black hole we're going to have a C. And unless Keppinger is making up that difference between AJ's career season and black hole offense, it isn't even a wash.

'Holes' at C matter little. Below are the playoff teams from 2012 and the Catchers who played majority of the time for them (and their games started at C with their avg/obp/slug). Very few teams have the luxury of having an offensive threat at catcher and most elect to go with guys who are durable, and who are good defensively. One thing that sticks out on this list are guys with respectable OBPs. Flowers was a very high OBP threat in the minors (amassing a .391 career MiLB OBP) and my hope is that regular ABs in MLB put him at a respectable level OBP wise.

Yankees
R Martin 128 gms .211/.311/.403
C Stewart 54 gms .241/.292/.319

Baltimore
M Wieters 134 gms .249/.329/.435
T Teagarden 21 gms .158/.226/.316

Detroit
A Avila 113 gms .243/.352/.384
G Laird 56 gms .282/.337/.374

Oakland
K Suzuki 75 gms .218/.286/.536
D Norris 58 gms .201/.276/.349
G Kottaras 27 gms .212/.280/.471

Texas
M Napoli 72 gms .227/.343/.469
Y Torrealba 49 gms .236/.302/.342
G Soto 44 gms .196/.253/.338

Washington
J Flores 80 gms .213/.248/.329
K Suzuki 42 gms .267/.321/.404
W Ramos 24 gms .265/.354/.398

Atlanta
B McCann 114 gms .230/.300/.399
D Ross 54 gms .256/.321/.449

Cincinatti
R Hannigan 110 gms .274/.365/.338
D Mesoraco 53 gms .212/.288/.352
D Navarro 20 gms .290/.306/.449

St Louis
Y Molina 136 gms .315/.373/.501
T Cruz 47 gms .254/.291/.356

San Francisco
B Posey 114 gms .336/.408/.549
H Sanchez 56 gms .280/.295/.390

And while we know Flowers isn't going to produce the power numbers that AJ had last year, I think it's realistic to assume AJ wouldn't have come close to those either. The Rangers are paying $7.5M for an aging catcher (who's caught a boatload of innings in his career) for past performance. Flowers will be fine and I'll take the defensive uptick he's going to provide over any offensive holes he might add... Especially when considering the above list.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by doublem23

What? The Sox's 3B collectively hit .201/.286/.314 last season, easily the worst production at that position in the American League (league average - .261/.320/.420). And this is before you even consider Youkilis's non-existent defense for much of the 2nd half. The Sox 3B play was a complete disaster last season.

Okay, we're ****ed then!

[dickallen15]

I hope Hahn has a better plan for the back up catcher, however, if that turns out to be the biggest problem, the Sox will be in pretty good shape.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by DeadMoney

'Holes' at C matter little. Below are the playoff teams from 2012 and the Catchers who played majority of the time for them (and their games started at C with their avg/obp/slug). Very few teams have the luxury of having an offensive threat at catcher and most elect to go with guys who are durable, and who are good defensively. One thing that sticks out on this list are guys with respectable OBPs. Flowers was a very high OBP threat in the minors (amassing a .391 career MiLB OBP) and my hope is that regular ABs in MLB put him at a respectable level OBP wise.

Yankees
R Martin 128 gms .211/.311/.403
C Stewart 54 gms .241/.292/.319

Baltimore
M Wieters 134 gms .249/.329/.435
T Teagarden 21 gms .158/.226/.316

Detroit
A Avila 113 gms .243/.352/.384
G Laird 56 gms .282/.337/.374

Oakland
K Suzuki 75 gms .218/.286/.536
D Norris 58 gms .201/.276/.349
G Kottaras 27 gms .212/.280/.471

Texas
M Napoli 72 gms .227/.343/.469
Y Torrealba 49 gms .236/.302/.342
G Soto 44 gms .196/.253/.338

Washington
J Flores 80 gms .213/.248/.329
K Suzuki 42 gms .267/.321/.404
W Ramos 24 gms .265/.354/.398

Atlanta
B McCann 114 gms .230/.300/.399
D Ross 54 gms .256/.321/.449

Cincinatti
R Hannigan 110 gms .274/.365/.338
D Mesoraco 53 gms .212/.288/.352
D Navarro 20 gms .290/.306/.449

St Louis
Y Molina 136 gms .315/.373/.501
T Cruz 47 gms .254/.291/.356

San Francisco
B Posey 114 gms .336/.408/.549
H Sanchez 56 gms .280/.295/.390

And while we know Flowers isn't going to produce the power numbers that AJ had last year, I think it's realistic to assume AJ wouldn't have come close to those either. The Rangers are paying $7.5M for an aging catcher (who's caught a boatload of innings in his career) for past performance. Flowers will be fine and I'll take the defensive uptick he's going to provide over any offensive holes he might add... Especially when considering the above list.

No one is saying you need that production from that particular position. But we GOT it last year. Unless we make it up somewhere, we aren't as good as last year. Period.

[CoopaLoop]

Why do they need one?

Flowers is going to (as he should) get a full season's worth of at bats if he's good, bad or terrible.

[RKMeibalane]

Originally Posted by CoopaLoop

Why do they need one?

Flowers is going to (as he should) get a full season's worth of at bats if he's good, bad or terrible.

Catcher is a difficult position to play, because it requires many of the same defensive responsibilities common to the other positions, but it also mandates being able to work directly with the pitching and coaching staffs, which is not easy. As Flowers is a young catcher, I would guess Ventura and Cooper will probably call most of the pitches and relay signs to Tyler when he's behind the plate, but he still has to have a rapport with the pitchers, many of whom are used to working with AJ more than they are with him.

[A. Cavatica]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Because they know the team has to be somewhat competitive to draw.

The Cubs are already arguably the more exciting team in Chicago NOW, just imagine if the Sox went out and punted the next 2-3 seasons in the hope of rebuilding. Hello 15K per night!

This should be split off into its own thread.

I know it's the conventional wisdom, but do the Sox and Cubs really compete for attendance?

I wouldn't take free tickets to Wrigley, and the Cub fans I know wouldn't take free tickets to the Cell. I don't believe there are a lot of casual baseball fans in Chicago who will go to the games of whichever team is playing well.

The Sox attendance depends on how well the Sox do, and even if they're contending the Cub fans won't come to the park.

The Cubs attendance depends on how well the Cubs do. And tourism -- people come to see their ballpark, and pity them.

[Nellie_Fox]

Originally Posted by A. Cavatica

I don't believe there are a lot of casual baseball fans in Chicago who will go to the games of whichever team is playing well.

I believe that. Can't prove it though.

[SephClone89]

Originally Posted by A. Cavatica

I wouldn't take free tickets to Wrigley, and the Cub fans I know wouldn't take free tickets to the Cell.

I would. I understand the attitude otherwise, though. I went to a game at Wrigley this past August with my mother (her whole family are Cubs fans, and my aunt and uncle couldn't use their tickets) and enjoyed myself enough. The seats are bad, we were pretty close to a pole, etc, but as much as I enjoy the Cell, I like seeing baseball games in places besides the same ballpark over and over again. It's kind of refreshing. I'll probably take my mom to Wrigley again sometime this year--she's the only Cubs fan in our immediate family so she sometimes feels left out. No way do I overpay for them--I won't pay more than I would for the equivalent Sox tickets, and I'll try to make it a way to see a team or player I'm interested in or haven't seen before...

I do know some people who are kind of on the fence between Sox and Cubs who were all about the Sox in '05-'06 and were interested in the Cubs in '07-'08...I know plenty of people like this.

[Hitmen77]

Originally Posted by A. Cavatica

This should be split off into its own thread.

I know it's the conventional wisdom, but do the Sox and Cubs really compete for attendance?

I wouldn't take free tickets to Wrigley, and the Cub fans I know wouldn't take free tickets to the Cell. I don't believe there are a lot of casual baseball fans in Chicago who will go to the games of whichever team is playing well.

The Sox attendance depends on how well the Sox do, and even if they're contending the Cub fans won't come to the park.

The Cubs attendance depends on how well the Cubs do. And tourism -- people come to see their ballpark, and pity them.

I think they do. But it's not as simple as Sox fans going to Cubs games or vice versa. There are a few reasons for this:

1) For the true die-hards, what you describe above is correct. But, as hard as it is for us die-hards on this site to believe, not every potential customer in Chicagoland is a staunch die-hard Sox or Cubs fan. There are plenty of people who are casual fans who would go to both games and it really depends on which team is more exciting to watch.

2) I think a lot of fans' level of disgust really does depend on how the team across town is doing. If the Sox are winning 83 games and the Cubs are losing 100, then I think there is much less anger/apathy toward the team than if the Sox were winning 83 games and the Cubs were racking up multiple pennants. Likewise, Cubs fans are not exactly unfamiliar with losing, but in 2006, after the Sox championship, the Cubs suddenly started seeing empty seats at Wrigley. I think this prompted TribCo to go on a spending spree to put the Cubs back in the playoffs for 2007 and 08.

3) This is ultimately the most important one IMO: Sox success on the field has a long term affect on their market share in Chicago. Not every child is born into a die-hard family. Their loyalty is up for grabs. Chicago used to be more evenly split between Sox and Cubs. But the Sox moving to pay TV and the Cubs on WGN becoming a national darling beginning in 1984 totally tipped the Chicago market in the Cubs favor. We pretty much lost an entire generation to the Cubs. I think the Sox gained a lot more new fans in 2005, but they didn't keep up that success and they have let the wind out of the sails over the last 4 disappointing seasons and we've seen attendance decline as a result. At this point, the Sox market share is still pretty thin. Not as thin as it was in 1997, but not strong enough to withstand a long rebuilding process. Because of this, if the Sox started from scratch and went the route of fielding last place teams for a few years while the Cubs suddenly became a pennant contender, our fan base would take a huge hit.