John Smoltz HOF chances

[mahagga73]

I'm hearing a lot of chatter and people assuming this guy is going to get in and I did some research on it. It looks like to me for most his career he was pretty much a solid 2 and maybe a 1 on a lot of other teams with ERA's hovering in the high 3's . He did have one magnificent season with Atlanta, won a Cy I think. and one or two other great years. Career won lost is good, not great. He was a very good closer, but his ERA in three of the four years he was in the role weren't the greatest. High strikeout totals career is what voters love so he has that. I personally think he is a notch below Eckersley as a reliever, as I think Eck was as good as there ever was when he was on top of his game, and he closed longer with better numbers in the ERA department. Outside Smoltz one big year he an Eck were pretty comparable as starters, Eck has a lot of low 3 and high 2 ERA seasons as a starter, and amazing ERA's as a reliever. The reason I say no to Smoltz if I was a voter is he just was not top notch dominant in either closing or starting. Eck was undoubtedly an all time great as a closer. Just couldn't vote for a guy that was just very good at both. I don't remember sitting there watching Smoltz back in the 90's and thinking this guy is HOF material. He has a great postseason record whereas a lot of his Brave's teammates with bigger reps weren't so great. But is that enough to get him in, 19 decisions in the postseason. Schilling was a better starter I believe and he didn't get in with the same type of postseason performance.

[mzh]

a 2.41 ERA as a reliever with 154 saves in essentially 3.5 years as a closer is more than 'very good'. Extended, that's a HOF career as a reliever. He had a few high-3 ERA seasons as a starter, but 209 wins and a 3.40 ERA is pretty damn impressive considering that most of his career came during the greatest offensive era in the history of the game. I don't think it's a stretch to say that he probably would have won at least 280 games had he not spent 5 years out of the rotation due to injury.

Also, Eckersley's career statline as a starter: 149-130 with a 3.71 ERA. Not even close. He may not get in on the first ballot, I don't think there's any doubt that Smoltz is a HOFer. As for Schilling, like I said, the only reason they look similar is because Smoltz spent 5 years either hurt or in the bullpen. They aren't really close.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by mzh

a 2.41 ERA as a reliever with 154 saves in essentially 3.5 years as a closer is more than 'very good'. That's a HOF career as a reliever. He had a few high-3 ERA seasons as a starter, but 209 wins and a 3.40 ERA is pretty damn impressive considering that most of his career came during the greatest offensive era in the history of the game. I don't think it's a stretch to say that he probably would have won at least 280 games had he not spent 5 years out of the rotation due to injury.

Also, Eckersley's career statline as a starter: 149-130 with a 3.71 ERA. Not even close. He may not get in on the first ballot, I don't think there's any doubt that Smoltz is a HOFer.

He didn't close enough to be counted as a HOF reliever and he wasn't as good as Eckersley. Not sure the starting numbers are lockdown HOF either. My point is he was very good at both, great at neither. Eck was great at closing. I'm not disputing your info just pondering whether his closing or starting individually are good enough. Eck spent a lot of time in the AL too, Smoltz didn't , might have a lot to do with ERA disparity as starters.When Eck was a closer I thought for sure this guy was one of the all time greats at his job, never ever felt that way about Smoltz.

[johnnyg83]

He may get in, but IMHO he's just a good pitcher. Not a HOFer.

yes, there were injuries but you can't go on "shouldas." He was the third best pitcher on a dominant dominant team, his stats are good not HOF. IMHO, of course.

[CoopaLoop]

That first post is tough to read.

• 16th member of 3,000 strikeout club.
• Only guy with 200 wins and 150 saves.
• Career ERA of 3.33.

I think he gets in.

[doublem23]

No doubt 1st ballot 90%+ vote HOF. I can't believe anyone thinks any less.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by johnnyg83

He may get in, but IMHO he's just a good pitcher. Not a HOFer.

yes, there were injuries but you can't go on "shouldas." He was the third best pitcher on a dominant dominant team, his stats are good not HOF. IMHO, of course.

Yeah, to me if he gets in you got literally dozens of other pitchers with similar careers who also could lay claim to enshrinement who probably were never thought of like that before.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by doublem23

No doubt 1st ballot 90%+ vote HOF. I can't believe anyone thinks any less.

Believe it, very good at starting, very good at closing albeit a few years, doesn't get you in the Hall in my book, maybe the Hall of very good. He was the third pitcher on his team, no team that won 1 WS should have 3 starters in the Hall, no way. Based on the eye test, stats, he isn't a surefire candidate to me.

[amsteel]

Do the BBWAA members think they're better than him? That's really the only question that matters.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by CoopaLoop

That first post is tough to read.

• 16th member of 3,000 strikeout club.
• Only guy with 200 wins and 150 saves.
• Career ERA of 3.33.

I think he gets in.

150 saves is not a huge number. What you are saying is if you had a very good starting career and closed successfully for a few years you are in. Strikeouts are outs like any other, a lot of non- HOFers have huge strikeout careers, an out is an out. A lot of pitchers have great career ERA's and don't get in.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by amsteel

Do the BBWAA members think they're better than him? That's really the only question that matters.

don't get me wrong, I think he's going to get in just based on what I've heard, the buzz. I just don't think he was as good as a lot of people think. He never entered my mind as a sure HOFer ever. Eckersley has a better resume as far as I'm concerned.

[johnnyg83]

Originally Posted by doublem23

No doubt 1st ballot 90%+ vote HOF. I can't believe anyone thinks any less.

90%! Wow. I'd take that bet. I guess that year's class would have a lot to say about.

[johnnyg83]

Originally Posted by doublem23

No doubt 1st ballot 90%+ vote HOF. I can't believe anyone thinks any less.

90%! Wow. I'd take that bet. I guess that year's class would have a lot to say about it.

[mzh]

Originally Posted by mahagga73

150 saves is not a huge number. What you are saying is if you had a very good starting career and closed successfully for a few years you are in. Strikeouts are outs like any other, a lot of non- HOFers have huge strikeout careers, an out is an out. A lot of pitchers have great career ERA's and don't get in.

Yes, 150 saves IS a lot. Here's some trivia:

Pitchers who have saved 144+ games over a 3 season stretch:

Francisco Rodriguez
Eric Gagne
John Smoltz

That's a pretty exclusive list. You could name a ton of closers who were probably better than Smoltz overall who never did that.

As for the rest, I'm not sure what your point is. Smoltz was a top-tier pitcher during the biggest hitting boom in history. Numbers deserve to be taken in some context.

[sox1970]

Lock HOF.