Sources: Royals Acquire James Shields, Wade Davis from Rays

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by Wedema

I agree that this is a good move for KC but Hosmer and Moustakas both only have one full season under their belt. It is too early to call them below average MLB players.

Just because they are below average players now does not mean they are doomed to fail, but it is a simple fact that the majority of prospects do. Kansas City has been hoarding "MVP-type" talent players for 10 years now. That strategy has earned them 9 straight sub-80 win seasons.

And, for the record, both have over a season of MLB experience and their career tracks are currently most closely aligned with Ken Harvey and Kevin Orie respectively. Not saying it's time to give up on either of them, I'd swap our 1B and 3B for theirs in a heartbeat, but just a friendly reminder that being a top prospect in AA guarantees nothing in the Majors.

[spawn]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Oh please, before Myers it was Hosmer. Before Hosmer it was Moustakas. Before Moustakas it was Gordon. Only Gordon is even an average MLB player at this point. This is a bad move only on the day you get a trophy for having the world's best farm system. As long as MLB production is the name of the game, KC made a nice move. They have plenty of young, up and coming position players. They desperately needed pitching. They play in a division that only requires 85-90 wins. They're a real threat in the Central now.

Agree completely. Having good prospects is a must in any organization, but not because they are guaranteed to produce at the major league level. They make good trading chips, as was displayed here. The Royals are an organization right now to keep an eye on. They seem to know what they are doing. This move highlights that IMO.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by shes

But anyway, Myers is a better prospect than any of those guys, and what they got in return for him + several good prospects is underwhelming at best. Top prospects often bust, true, but #1-type hitting prospects rarely do; at worst they become solid every-day players. It's quite rare for a Wil Myers to become a Todd Van Poppel.

I'm not sure where Myers will land on the pre-2013 BA Top Prospects list, but as of right now, Gordon (#2 BA prospect in 2007), Hosmer (#8 prospect in 2011), and Moustakas (#9 prospect in 2011) have all been ranked higher than Myers who peaked at #10 in 2010 and slid to #28 in 2011.

[SoxSpeed22]

You have to take a chance sometime when you've had 9 straight losing seasons. Myers could be special, but then again he could just as easily flame out. Prospects are called prospects for a reason. The Royals got a pretty rock solid rotation now with Shields being the anchor and Davis having a lot of upside.

[shes]

Originally Posted by doublem23

I'm not sure where Myers will land on the pre-2013 BA Top Prospects list, but as of right now, Gordon (#2 BA prospect in 2007), Hosmer (#8 prospect in 2011), and Moustakas (#9 prospect in 2011) have all been ranked higher than Myers who peaked at #10 in 2010 and slid to #28 in 2011.

I believe I read Sickels tentatively had him at #2 heading into 2013, right behind Profar.

In any event, the problem lies in giving up prospects of that caliber for a chance to jump from 72 to 80 wins, or if everything goes right, 85 wins. It's a win-now move that won't allow them to win now unless everything goes well and both the Sox (likely) and Tigers (incredibly unlikely) slip next season. At the end of the day, they still have a bad pitching staff and a bad offense on paper. They pretty much need everyone to live up to their best projections to get to 85 freakin' wins.

I seriously question Moore's motives in making this deal.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by shes

I seriously question Moore's motives in making this deal.

Probably because he's watched top prospect after top prospect come through the Royals system and basically produce nothing at the MLB level. He's probably tired of people lauding over his farm system while winning 70 games a season in Kansas City. They've played it safe and conservative for years and literally the best they have to show for it is a 3rd place finish in 2012. They have a young, emerging lineup. There is plenty of growth for the offense with the young guys they have in place now. And it's not like they've just emptied the cupboard. They still have plenty of pieces coming through the pipes. They dealt from a position of strength to bolster a position of weakness.

I mean, if you believe hoarding prospects is the eventual path to winning baseball that's fine, I don't neccessarily agree with you but I respect that point of view, but to say you can't fathom what the Royals are up to after spinning their wheels for a decade, well, that, IMO, is crazy talk.

[WhiteSox5187]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Probably because he's watched top prospect after top prospect come through the Royals system and basically produce nothing at the MLB level. He's probably tired of people lauding over his farm system while winning 70 games a season in Kansas City. They've played it safe and conservative for years and literally the best they have to show for it is a 3rd place finish in 2012. They have a young, emerging lineup. There is plenty of growth for the offense with the young guys they have in place now. And it's not like they've just emptied the cupboard. They still have plenty of pieces coming through the pipes. They dealt from a position of strength to bolster a position of weakness.

I mean, if you believe hoarding prospects is the eventual path to winning baseball that's fine, I don't neccessarily agree with you but I respect that point of view, but to say you can't fathom what the Royals are up to after spinning their wheels for a decade, well, that, IMO, is crazy talk.

I think more than anything Dayton Moore realizes his job is on the line and a bad year this year could be his last with the Royals.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187

I think more than anything Dayton Moore realizes his job is on the line and a bad year this year could be his last with the Royals.

Considering the Royals have done jack **** except produce a lot of glizty future MVPs who bomb once they make it to KC, that's not surprising.

[asindc]

Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187

I think more than anything Dayton Moore realizes his job is on the line and a bad year this year could be his last with the Royals.

There is a column on Grantland that discusses that viewpoint. It would not be the first time a GM has made a job-saving move that eventually brings long-term harm to the team. My guess is that Moore expects signficantly improvement from the young lineup so that a decent rotation will win them enough games to be relevant in September.

[DSpivack]

Originally Posted by asindc

There is a column on Grantland that discusses that viewpoint. It would not be the first time a GM has made a job-saving move that eventually brings long-term harm to the team. My guess is that Moore expects signficantly improvement from the young lineup so that a decent rotation will win them enough games to be relevant in September.

Yeah, you don't trade the BA Minor League Player of the Year (and 2 more good pitching prospects) for a SP on the wrong side of 30 signed for just 2 seasons if you're planning for the long-term.

[Mr. Jinx]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Oh please, before Myers it was Hosmer. Before Hosmer it was Moustakas. Before Moustakas it was Gordon. Only Gordon is even an average MLB player at this point. This is a bad move only on the day you get a trophy for having the world's best farm system. As long as MLB production is the name of the game, KC made a nice move. They have plenty of young, up and coming position players. They desperately needed pitching. They play in a division that only requires 85-90 wins. They're a real threat in the Central now.

Gordon is far from an average player. He had almost 200 hits, and OPS of .822 and even won the gold glove at 3rd last year. The Sox would kill to have a guy like him for the next decade. Moustakas is far from a bust too and it is way too early to tell what he will end up being.

Yes, teams tend to overvalue good prospects (i.e. Beckham, Fields, etc) but these guys are not good prospects, they are elite.

And I've been hearing that the Royals are going to be a threat going on 10 years now. I'll believe it when I see it.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by Mr. Jinx

And I've been hearing that the Royals are going to be a threat going on 10 years now. I'll believe it when I see it.

Yeah, that's the point, people have been proclaiming all the talent in the Royals farm system would bring them back to the glory days and so far all that talent has produced absolutely squat. They've finally wised up and started hedging their often overvalued prospects for actual Major League talent.

[DSpivack]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Yeah, that's the point, people have been proclaiming all the talent in the Royals farm system would bring them back to the glory days and so far all that talent has produced absolutely squat. They've finally wised up and started hedging their often overvalued prospects for actual Major League talent.

To say that the talent has produced 'absolutely squat' is really not true. They've graduated a bunch of position players (I'll add Salvador Perez to those mentioned earlier), but they made this trade because their pitching hasn't produced anyone good yet (besides Greinke). This trade may pay off for them, but Shields is signed only through 2014. I question why a team like them who are limited in payroll will be paying Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie $20 million in 2013.

I think this was another good article looking at the trade:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...-team-building

[Mr. Jinx]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Yeah, that's the point, people have been proclaiming all the talent in the Royals farm system would bring them back to the glory days and so far all that talent has produced absolutely squat. They've finally wised up and started hedging their often overvalued prospects for actual Major League talent.

And my point is that this trade doesn't make them threats this year either. Just another 80-85 win team that will end up in 3rd place.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by DSpivack

To say that the talent has produced 'absolutely squat' is really not true. They've graduated a bunch of position players (I'll add Salvador Perez to those mentioned earlier), but they made this trade because their pitching hasn't produced anyone good yet (besides Greinke). This trade may pay off for them, but Shields is signed only through 2014. I question why a team like them who are limited in payroll will be paying Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie $20 million in 2013.

I think this was another good article looking at the trade:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...-team-building

It absolutely is true in terms of on-field producation, as Kansas City has gone 9 years since they've even won 80 games. And they've had a plethora of "up and coming" superstars over the past decade and only one to this point, Gordon, has been an above average player, but even then, 2 seasons of OPS+ 133 baseball isn't exactly HOF, MVP-caliber stuff here. He's a very good player, but you're still talking about a guy who has fallen well, well, well short of expectations.

Keri's pro-Rays bias ruins the piece for me, IMO. You could very easily flip the script and say the same things about Kansas City he said about Tampa. They went out, rocked the boat, and ultimately, made themselves better for the 2013 season.

And you've got to again remember, Kansas City doesn't need to build an elite level team to compete in the Central. You don't even have to be above average, the 7th best team in the AL wound up winning this disgustingly bad division. Maybe the Royals would be a lock for a 4th or 5th place finish in the East or West, but here, they're definitely to be taken seriously.