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  #31  
Old 12-04-2012, 01:50 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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Originally Posted by Nellie_Fox View Post
Flowers's OBP was .296, AJ .326 ....
The comparison between Dunn and Pierzynski sort of shows that on-base percentage isn't nearly as important as some make it out to be.
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  #32  
Old 12-04-2012, 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted by TaylorStSox View Post
I like his potential as a hitter and defender.
Me, too. Well, I like his potential a lot more than paying out the nose for AJ's age 36-38 seasons.
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  #33  
Old 12-04-2012, 02:12 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is online now
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Originally Posted by sullythered View Post
You haven't seen anything in his minor league numbers that suggest he could be a high OBP guy? Have you looked at his minor league numbers?
If you had looked at the earlier posts you would see that I have and I also pointed out that above A ball he has has struck out twice as often as he has walked. His OBP in AAA is .358, a very nice OBP but right up there with Josh Fields' .382 OBP in AAA and Jerry Owens' .355 OBP in AAA.

My point is you can't put a lot of stock in a guys numbers in the minors because he is going to face a lot of garbage pitchers and can cover his mistakes against those guys, especially in a hitter friendly park like the one in Charlotte. Flowers' numbers indicate he is going to strike out far more often than he walks and that was against a lot of garbage pitching too. Imagine how he will do against major league pitching.

I would also argue that while Flowers does have some upside he is another low average, low OBP, high strike out guy and the White Sox lineup as currently constructed has too many guys like that already.
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  #34  
Old 12-04-2012, 02:39 PM
TaylorStSox TaylorStSox is offline
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Since Fields and Owens didn't pan out, we should dismiss everyone's minor league numbers when it suits our argument.
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I'm not counting this homerun or his 3 RBI from today's game because of the game situation. I'm not counting his pinch hit solo homerun in a blowout win in Colorado. In my book, Crede has 2 less home runs than his statistics show, 4 less RBI, and one less walk (the one where he pinch hit for Uribe after coming in with a 3-0 count and taking one pitch).
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  #35  
Old 12-04-2012, 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by TaylorStSox View Post
Since Fields and Owens didn't pan out, we should dismiss everyone's minor league numbers when it suits our argument.
I think the actual quote is

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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
My point is you can't put a lot of stock in a guys numbers in the minors because he is going to face a lot of garbage pitchers and can cover his mistakes against those guys, especially in a hitter friendly park like the one in Charlotte.
So, not totally dismiss, but don't elevate to an important data point in evaluating as a major leaguer.
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  #36  
Old 12-04-2012, 02:55 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is online now
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Originally Posted by TaylorStSox View Post
Since Fields and Owens didn't pan out, we should dismiss everyone's minor league numbers when it suits our argument.
You are missing my point entirely. I am saying that since there are a lot of guys who post good minor league numbers and wind up becoming ****ty major leaguers you shouldn't post too much faith in numbers posted at the minor league level. Numbers only tell a part of the story and God knows that there are certainly more numbers than OBP to look at, especially in the minor leagues.

Josh Fields had a 2.6 K/BB ratio in AA in 2005 and a 2.5 K/BB ratio in AAA in 2006, he still had a good OBP in those years (.341 and .379) but that K/BB ratio could have served as a warning sign that perhaps he would struggle in the majors where he would be facing vastly superior pitching and that his OBP was inflated by inferior pitching. Flowers has had slightly better OBPs in his years in the minors but still has about a 2 K/BB rate which suggests to me he will struggle against superior pitching.

This is not to say that Flowers is going to be as worthless as Fields or Owens was. I think that Flowers could have a nice career and put up numbers similar to JP Arencibia who is a quality major league catcher. My main objection to Flowers being a starter with the White Sox is that we already have a lot of low average, low OBP guys on this lineup in the likes of Viciedo, Beckham, Ramirez and Dunn. I think that a lineup that features five guys who will struggle to have an OBP much above .335 will struggle to get enough guys on to score runs.
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  #37  
Old 12-04-2012, 03:21 PM
TaylorStSox TaylorStSox is offline
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
You are missing my point entirely. I am saying that since there are a lot of guys who post good minor league numbers and wind up becoming ****ty major leaguers you shouldn't post too much faith in numbers posted at the minor league level. Numbers only tell a part of the story and God knows that there are certainly more numbers than OBP to look at, especially in the minor leagues.

Josh Fields had a 2.6 K/BB ratio in AA in 2005 and a 2.5 K/BB ratio in AAA in 2006, he still had a good OBP in those years (.341 and .379) but that K/BB ratio could have served as a warning sign that perhaps he would struggle in the majors where he would be facing vastly superior pitching and that his OBP was inflated by inferior pitching. Flowers has had slightly better OBPs in his years in the minors but still has about a 2 K/BB rate which suggests to me he will struggle against superior pitching.

This is not to say that Flowers is going to be as worthless as Fields or Owens was. I think that Flowers could have a nice career and put up numbers similar to JP Arencibia who is a quality major league catcher. My main objection to Flowers being a starter with the White, Sox is that we already have a lot of low average, low OBP guys on this lineup in the likes of Viciedo, Beckham, Ramirez and Dunn. I think that a lineup that features five guys who will struggle to have an OBP much above .335 will struggle to get enough guys on to score runs.
The "crappy pitcher" argument holds little weight. Everyone faces the same quality pitching in AAA. Plus, he put up ungodly numbers in AA, where the pitching is better. Also, his AAA numbers are somewhat skewed by a bad 2010. IIRC, he was battling injuries that entire year. Nonetheless, using OBP as an argument in favor of AJ doesn't work.

I just don't see any scenario where AJ out produces Flowers considering salary.

Also, Flowers doesn't have a 2/1 k/BB rate in the minors.
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  #38  
Old 12-04-2012, 04:47 PM
eriqjaffe eriqjaffe is offline
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Originally Posted by TaylorStSox View Post
TAlso, Flowers doesn't have a 2/1 k/BB rate in the minors.
He does at AAA, though.
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  #39  
Old 12-04-2012, 06:14 PM
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
If you had looked at the earlier posts you would see that I have and I also pointed out that above A ball he has has struck out twice as often as he has walked. His OBP in AAA is .358, a very nice OBP but right up there with Josh Fields' .382 OBP in AAA and Jerry Owens' .355 OBP in AAA.

My point is you can't put a lot of stock in a guys numbers in the minors because he is going to face a lot of garbage pitchers and can cover his mistakes against those guys, especially in a hitter friendly park like the one in Charlotte. Flowers' numbers indicate he is going to strike out far more often than he walks and that was against a lot of garbage pitching too. Imagine how he will do against major league pitching.
I think the minor league stats can show warning signs, though. If you strike out a lot and have no power against that pitching, even with a decent obp, you're likely to struggle in the majors. I guess I'm agreeing with you.
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  #40  
Old 12-05-2012, 03:26 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
Talk is cheap. Sox management has been telling us for years about their desire for more offensive balance. It's kind of like how Ozzie used to say year after year that this team needs to get better at fundamentals.....but then nothing ever changed.
Very true, but now we've got a guy in Ventura who actually did something about improving fundamentals.
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  #41  
Old 12-05-2012, 03:29 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Originally Posted by TaylorStSox View Post

I just don't see any scenario where AJ out produces Flowers considering salary.
Are you kidding? I'm not as down on Flowers as a lot of people apparently are, but come on! I would be less surprised if Flowers hit .190 as a full time player than I would be if he hit .270.
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  #42  
Old 12-05-2012, 04:31 PM
TaylorStSox TaylorStSox is offline
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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
Are you kidding? I'm not as down on Flowers as a lot of people apparently are, but come on! I would be less surprised if Flowers hit .190 as a full time player than I would be if he hit .270.
"Produce" entails a heck of a lot more than BA, especially when you factor in defense and salary.
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  #43  
Old 12-05-2012, 09:26 PM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
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Originally Posted by TaylorStSox View Post
Since Fields and Owens didn't pan out, we should dismiss everyone's minor league numbers when it suits our argument.
Complete dismiss? As a rule no, but some healthy skepticism is in order, especially where Flowers is concerned.
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  #44  
Old 12-05-2012, 10:28 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Originally Posted by TaylorStSox View Post
"Produce" entails a heck of a lot more than BA, especially when you factor in defense and salary.
Fair enough. AJ was arguably the best hitting catcher in the AL last year, to say you can't see a scenario where AJ outproduces Flowers next year is ludicrous.
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  #45  
Old 12-05-2012, 11:12 PM
TaylorStSox TaylorStSox is offline
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Fair enough. AJ was arguably the best hitting catcher in the AL last year, to say you can't see a scenario where AJ outproduces Flowers next year is ludicrous.
He's also 37 years old and had an eyebrow raising power spike in a contract year. He had a great offensive year for a catcher, but was really bad behind the plate.

I see Flowers putting up something like .240/.340 with 20 homers next year. I don't see AJ having that type of obp and power. Although that porch in the Bronx might make it happen. When you factor in the defense and the contract, it's a no-brainer IMO. So, yeah AJ might have a similar offensive year, but won't be nearly as good defensively. Obviously, I weigh defense heavily when I look at a catcher.
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