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  #16  
Old 12-01-2012, 02:30 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by Falstaff View Post
True. Also true is over time, (starting in 2013?) Sale's velocity will decline.
Rather than the 97mph 15 KO blazer, he'll be routinely working in the 90-93 range. Now, this is pretty standard. A good comparison would be Tim Lincecum, a lanky guy with funky delivery. I bet at this point SF is grateful they didn't commit to 8 years with their Cy Young honoree. I expect a similar trajectory for Sale. UNLESS he starts to develop command of his off-speedo junk a la Freddie Garcia. Chris Sale will not be a lights out performer for an extended time, but I think he has the talent to transform into a finesser as time goes with the wind. My 2 cents.
Wow, you are comparing pitchers who have absolutely nothing in common.

Sale does not get his Velocity from his "funky" delivery. He is 6'6. Lincecum is 5'11, which is why he gets his velo from the delivery. Sale also has GREAT offspeed stuff. Freddy Garcia has nothing to do with Chris Sale either.

Sale is a tall, long lefty. You are correct that he will he choose to work consistently in the mid to low 90s, but that is what all pitchers do who throw hard. Dial it up as needed. Sale had a couple games last year with a fatigued arm he was sitting about 88-91, which is common for young SP who have not been stretched out to 200 IP before.

Sale is a once a decade talent, the Sox need to not screw around and just lock him up.
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  #17  
Old 12-01-2012, 03:28 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Wow, you are comparing pitchers who have absolutely nothing in common.

Sale does not get his Velocity from his "funky" delivery. He is 6'6. Lincecum is 5'11, which is why he gets his velo from the delivery. Sale also has GREAT offspeed stuff. Freddy Garcia has nothing to do with Chris Sale either.

Sale is a tall, long lefty. You are correct that he will he choose to work consistently in the mid to low 90s, but that is what all pitchers do who throw hard. Dial it up as needed. Sale had a couple games last year with a fatigued arm he was sitting about 88-91, which is common for young SP who have not been stretched out to 200 IP before.

Sale is a once a decade talent, the Sox need to not screw around and just lock him up.
Sale is more likely a left-handed Jack McDowell, there's a dozen similarities. Jack was Cy Young worthy but with a body that couldn't possibly hold up for a decade. With Sale, it's already shown several times in his very short career.
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  #18  
Old 12-01-2012, 07:47 PM
Konerko05 Konerko05 is offline
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Sale is more likely a left-handed Jack McDowell, there's a dozen similarities. Jack was Cy Young worthy but with a body that couldn't possibly hold up for a decade. With Sale, it's already shown several times in his very short career.
What?
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  #19  
Old 12-01-2012, 10:49 PM
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DumpJerry DumpJerry is offline
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As far as anyone knows, Sale does not have a history of major injuries with his delivery which I'm pretty sure he has had for many years now.

But the WSI medical staff knows better........
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  #20  
Old 12-02-2012, 05:56 AM
Falstaff Falstaff is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Wow, you are comparing pitchers who have absolutely nothing in common.

Sale does not get his Velocity from his "funky" delivery. He is 6'6. Lincecum is 5'11, which is why he gets his velo from the delivery. Sale also has GREAT offspeed stuff. Freddy Garcia has nothing to do with Chris Sale either.

Sale is a tall, long lefty. You are correct that he will he choose to work consistently in the mid to low 90s, but that is what all pitchers do who throw hard. Dial it up as needed. Sale had a couple games last year with a fatigued arm he was sitting about 88-91, which is common for young SP who have not been stretched out to 200 IP before.

Sale is a once a decade talent, the Sox need to not screw around and just lock him up.

Yes he is a rare talent. So was Jon Rauch, who won Olympic gold medal and stood even taller. Then promptly blew out his arm. Then came back to have a respectable career out of bullpen, going on like a decade.
Management does have a tough decision coming up but likely will wait a year for sake of prudence. PS most of those under-powered games you mention were games Sale gave up a bunch of runs. Freddie Garcia won 17 games a few years back with "that" kind of stuff. Plus some filthy junk.
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  #21  
Old 12-03-2012, 10:22 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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What?
You're looking for a guy with a similar body frame and similar mechanics, you won't find a better example. And we all know what happened to Blackjack.
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  #22  
Old 12-03-2012, 10:41 AM
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As far as anyone knows, Sale does not have a history of major injuries with his delivery which I'm pretty sure he has had for many years now.
He's also, as far as anyone knows, never been a heavily relied upon starting pitcher at the Major League level at any point of his life, either. Really, all pitchers have flawless injury records until they start to break down. Mark Prior had "perfect mechanics" and (IIRC) a spotless medical history at the amateur level but that didn't translate into sustained success when he made the jump to the Majors.

There has never bee never been a question of Sale's ability but he will continue to be hounded about his durability for at least a few more seasons.

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You're looking for a guy with a similar body frame and similar mechanics, you won't find a better example. And we all know what happened to Blackjack.
Granted, I only became a rabid Sox fan around the 92/93 season and then my family didn't have cable until around 2000 so I don't remember McDowell all that well, but while the frame may have been similar, just a basic Google Image search shows different mechanics for them... Sale pitches with the feared Inverted W, pretty much every image I can find of McDowell doesn't fit that...



That's not the Inverted W and, as far as I am aware, the current consensus is that mechanics are far more important than frame in determining the likelihood of injury.

And really, at any rate, McDowell was an OUTSTANDING pitcher through his 20's, and even was an AL-average innings eater through his mid-30's (I know his raw numbers are a bit inflated, but those were the height of the Steroid Era/Juiced Ball offensive explosion, he never posted an ERA+ under 90 until his final season when he threw a grand total of 19 innings over 4 starts). The only reason his career ended at 33 was due to a botched surgery. This is still a guy who earned 25.1 WAR for pitchers over his career (a hair outside the Top 300 P of all-time), won a Cy Young Award, pitched in 3 All-Star Games. If that's the career course Sale will be on, that's not exactly something to sneeze at.

Sale is going to turn 24 years old just before the 2013 season starts. He hits arbitration for the first time next off-season and can become a free agent after the 2016 season, when he will be 27 years old. If the Sox could find a way to buy out some arb years and maybe lock him up for an extra year or two, I'd be willing to do that. But you also got to remember that Sale took a bit under what he was asking for after the Sox drafted him based on the promise that they would fast track him to the Majors and start his arb clock as soon as possible. You got to wonder how much more charity he's willing to give.
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  #23  
Old 12-03-2012, 12:13 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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He's also, as far as anyone knows, never been a heavily relied upon starting pitcher at the Major League level at any point of his life, either. Really, all pitchers have flawless injury records until they start to break down. Mark Prior had "perfect mechanics" and (IIRC) a spotless medical history at the amateur level but that didn't translate into sustained success when he made the jump to the Majors.

There has never bee never been a question of Sale's ability but he will continue to be hounded about his durability for at least a few more seasons.



Granted, I only became a rabid Sox fan around the 92/93 season and then my family didn't have cable until around 2000 so I don't remember McDowell all that well, but while the frame may have been similar, just a basic Google Image search shows different mechanics for them... Sale pitches with the feared Inverted W, pretty much every image I can find of McDowell doesn't fit that...



That's not the Inverted W and, as far as I am aware, the current consensus is that mechanics are far more important than frame in determining the likelihood of injury.

And really, at any rate, McDowell was an OUTSTANDING pitcher through his 20's, and even was an AL-average innings eater through his mid-30's (I know his raw numbers are a bit inflated, but those were the height of the Steroid Era/Juiced Ball offensive explosion, he never posted an ERA+ under 90 until his final season when he threw a grand total of 19 innings over 4 starts). The only reason his career ended at 33 was due to a botched surgery. This is still a guy who earned 25.1 WAR for pitchers over his career (a hair outside the Top 300 P of all-time), won a Cy Young Award, pitched in 3 All-Star Games. If that's the career course Sale will be on, that's not exactly something to sneeze at.

Sale is going to turn 24 years old just before the 2013 season starts. He hits arbitration for the first time next off-season and can become a free agent after the 2016 season, when he will be 27 years old. If the Sox could find a way to buy out some arb years and maybe lock him up for an extra year or two, I'd be willing to do that. But you also got to remember that Sale took a bit under what he was asking for after the Sox drafted him based on the promise that they would fast track him to the Majors and start his arb clock as soon as possible. You got to wonder how much more charity he's willing to give.
McDowell had an Inverted W. Injuries to his hip (arthritis I believe) caused him to change his motion drastically.

You're right that that career trajectory is not something to sneeze at. But I don't think it's a case for locking him up long term for big money either. I think it's a case to get as much as you can out of him in your window (which still has three more seasons where his production out-weighs the contract) and then cut him loose. Because odds are he isn't going to live up to the dollars an extension would cost. He's going to win a Cy Young in the next three years.
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  #24  
Old 12-03-2012, 12:25 PM
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Nellie_Fox Nellie_Fox is offline
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From my admittedly limited understanding of pitching mechanics, a more apt comparison is to:



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  #25  
Old 12-03-2012, 12:41 PM
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You're right that that career trajectory is not something to sneeze at. But I don't think it's a case for locking him up long term for big money either. I think it's a case to get as much as you can out of him in your window (which still has three more seasons where his production out-weighs the contract) and then cut him loose. Because odds are he isn't going to live up to the dollars an extension would cost. He's going to win a Cy Young in the next three years.
Fair point that I don't necessarily disagree with, but not all extensions are created equally. Surely Sale and his agent know the possibility for catastrophic injury exist so whose to say they wouldn't sign an extension that's relatively team-friendly? Considering everyone basically agrees the guys arm could explode at any given moment, maybe the idea of securing his financial future for life outweighs the potential megabucks he could earn in free agency if he wait another 4 seasons. That's approximately 128 starts he's got to navigate.

I would also consider it because the Sox so frequently have to combat the perception they are "cheap." Not great PR to cut a guy with this kind of talent over dollars and cents. But again, it would have to be for the right price. I'm certainly not interested in paying Sale #1 SP market rate for 6+ seasons. That would probably be a bad investment.
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  #26  
Old 12-03-2012, 12:46 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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From my admittedly limited understanding of pitching mechanics, a more apt comparison is to:



By the time Randy made the majors, he was sitting at around 230 pounds. I know Randy's taller, but 50 pounds is 50 pounds. Randy really wasn't rail thin. He was when he was drafted, but worked really hard to build a ton of muscle after he was drafted.
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  #27  
Old 12-03-2012, 12:49 PM
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Fair point that I don't necessarily disagree with, but not all extensions are created equally. Surely Sale and his agent know the possibility for catastrophic injury exist so whose to say they wouldn't sign an extension that's relatively team-friendly? Considering everyone basically agrees the guys arm could explode at any given moment, maybe the idea of securing his financial future for life outweighs the potential megabucks he could earn in free agency if he wait another 4 seasons. That's approximately 128 starts he's got to navigate.

I would also consider it because the Sox so frequently have to combat the perception they are "cheap." Not great PR to cut a guy with this kind of talent over dollars and cents. But again, it would have to be for the right price. I'm certainly not interested in paying Sale #1 SP market rate for 6+ seasons. That would probably be a bad investment.
I think the biggest problem is that unless injury happens sooner, someone is gonna give him those 6 years. I'm sure his agent knows that. I wouldn't bank on being able to simply tack a few years on. Not after he just had a Cy Young quality year. Might be more worthwhile to take the draft pick.
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  #28  
Old 12-03-2012, 12:51 PM
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I think the biggest problem is that unless injury happens sooner, someone is gonna give him those 6 years. I'm sure his agent knows that. I wouldn't bank on being able to simply tack a few years on. Not after he just had a Cy Young quality year. Might be more worthwhile to take the draft pick.
Absolutely, which is why I agree with the general theme of the OP which is if the Sox want to lock him up, now's the time to act. Buy out his arb years, maybe a year or two of FA, which would allow him to hit the market around 29-30 and still have 1 huge contract out there for him. But if they let him go 1-2 more years then yeah, the chance to hit it big at 27 is probably too tempting.

I'm not talking the Sox offer him **** and then tack an extra year of guaranteed **** on and hope he signs. But maybe make him a reasonable offer that basically sets him for life with money is something they'd consider. It's a gamble for the Sox, but for Sale and his people, it's just as big a risk to hope he lasts injury free for another 4 years, right?
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  #29  
Old 12-03-2012, 02:11 PM
cws05champ cws05champ is online now
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By the time Randy made the majors, he was sitting at around 230 pounds. I know Randy's taller, but 50 pounds is 50 pounds. Randy really wasn't rail thin. He was when he was drafted, but worked really hard to build a ton of muscle after he was drafted.
As far as arm injuries goes I think his weight is irrelevant. It's just the muscles leading up to the elbow and shoulder ligaments that you really have to strengthen and care for just like the joints themselves.
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  #30  
Old 12-03-2012, 03:48 PM
DonnieDarko DonnieDarko is offline
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As far as arm injuries goes I think his weight is irrelevant. It's just the muscles leading up to the elbow and shoulder ligaments that you really have to strengthen and care for just like the joints themselves.
Maybe I read what you posted wrong, but from my limited understanding of anatomy, you can't really "strengthen" ligaments.
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