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#32
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And yes, there are them fancy number things that do help us quantify how much Paul Konerko helped and hurt the Sox last year. His oWAR was 2.7 (he added about 3 wins to the team at the plate compared to his position) and cost the team 2.2 wins defensively (though, I do admit I'm not as fond of the defensive stats, but pretty much anything is better than fielding percentage) so, when you remove the duplication built in for position, you get a WAR of Konerko of +1.4 last season, which essentially means that if Konerko had vanished off the face of the Earth in March 2012 and the Sox replaced him with the league average offensive and defensive 1B, they would have expected to win 83 or 84 games last year instead of the 85 they did win with his contributions.
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#33
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Errors can occasionally tell you something. From watching White Sox games this year it seemed to me that most of the time when they gave someone an error it was well warranted. It's not the end all be all and when being used with guys up the middle should be taken with a grain of salt, but if you have a first baseman with a lot of errors or an outfielder with a lot of errors I would say the vast majority of the time you have a defensive liability on your hands.
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#34
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Organic statistics aren't prescious, they are natural parts of the game. If your shortstop makes 40 errors, you don't say he cost your teams x-games based on his fielding percentage, but you know that his defensive game needs to be addressed if he is going to continue there. But you watched him play, so you probably already knew that. The fact that organic stats don't tell you that much has people trying to work out exotic formulas to try to tell them more. If you want to argue that Paul Konerko cost the White Sox x-number of games on defense last season, you have to be able to quantify that with what actually happened. Really, if you can't do the same for everyone on defense on every team, your numbers are invalid. That is the way science works. If you are going to apply scientific formulas to baseball, the burden to show they match what we see actually happen is on you. Otherwise, your formuas are invalid. |
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At least the Molinas have a time. Paulie is still out there completing his 60......
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But, and as I believe I have always noted when discussing the subject, even though I don't put a lot of weight, even if dWAR and ZR are calculating using such witchcraft as multiplying and adding things (EGADS, THOSE NERDZ) I can tell from having watched baseball for 20+ years that it is still a more reliable metric than errors and fielding percentage, which is a completely and utterly useless waste of everyone's time, if for no other reason than *******s like Orlando Cabrera can call the official scorer's office and bitch enough to get an error overturned, what more proof needs to be said? If you still put any credence into it, then I just can't help you. I agree. I don't think Paul ever stopped getting hits and drawing walks throughout his struggles last year, his power was just completely zapped. He finished with a .298 BA and .371 OBP, way over his career norms and very much in line with the previous 2 seasons when he was having legitimate MVP-caliber years, but his slugging percentage was a paltry .486. So, hopefully, he still has the physical capability to play at a high level, he just has to stay healthy, which is, of course, sometimes a bit of a scary proposition when you're banking on the health of a 37-year-old guy. |
#38
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Orlando Cabfrera lobbying th official scorer the way Ron Santo used to do is irrelevant to the discussion. It doesn't change my point that any metric that purports to show that a player cost a teach x number of games on defense during a season is invalid unless you can show which games the player lost. |
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PK doesn't make plays that other 1B can, simple as that. Is he good within his limited range? Absolutely.
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#41
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It's no different than looking at 2 players; say Player A had 100 RBIs this year and Player B had 90. Manufacturing runs is the name of the business right? But you'd be foolish to automatically say Player A is better than Player B, even though he was 10% better at helping his team score runs based on this one, single stat. Nobody in their right mind would put all their chips in one basket. Just like nobody, ever, in the history of the world has ever said the WAR, dWAR, or oWAR are tell-all, be-all inclusive stats and everything else can be ignored. They're good because of what they measure and, in the case of dWAR, light years better than traditional fielding stats, but there's a lot they leave out so it takes a little understanding how to use them correctly. So you can either take the... 10 seconds required to understand them and have an educated opinion on them, or you can go the TDog route and hold your breath, throw a tantrum, and hope that all those dang kids with their dang spreadsheets who are 20-30 years younger than you will, I don't know, die of carpal tunnel syndrome and you won't have to be bothered with it any more. ![]() |
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It's hard for me to believe that in 16 seasons Konerko has only gotten a 25.3 career WAR. Meanwhile in 7 seasons Ben Zobrist has gotten a 25.4 career WAR. There's no way Ben Zobrist has had a better career than Konerko. I don't disagree with Zobrist's numbers but I do disagree with how Konerko is viewed and it is because of his defense for the most part on why he is so low. |
#43
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WAR is influenced by position so if 2 players have identical stat lines, but one is a middle infielder while the other is a first baseman, the middle infielder's WAR will be higher than the 1B since you expect to generate a lot more offense from your corner IF/OF than your infielders. Zobrist has played over 60% of his career games either at 2B or SS, so his offensive contributions are generally much greater than the league average middle infielder than Konerko, who, for most of his career, was just kind of an average offensive 1B.
Last edited by doublem23; 11-19-2012 at 09:06 AM. |
#44
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Many of us don't buy into the hype of these metrics - not because we are afraid of math - but because these metrics cannot explain what happened on the field that resulted in a particular game being won or lost.
These metrics have some utility when comparing players to each other, for instance when comparing players who play the same position, such as debating Sox left fielders over the years. But ultimately, the game is played on the field, and no one watching the game gave a fat rat's *** what Scott Podsednik's WAR was; Sox fans always will remember him for his amazing World Series walkoff HR.
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