Second Half Blues

[Huisj]

Originally Posted by Railsplitter

Indeed. I would also like to point out Kenny Williams penchant for having two big, lumbering slowpokes (Thomas-Konerko, Konerko-Thome, Konerko-Dunn) for first base/DH duties. Why not four outfielders, with the fourth outfielder your DH?

Yeah! It could be Mark Kotsay!

[jdm2662]

To add to JB's post, I met him for the first time at the ol ballpark on Memorial Day weekend. I mentioned how the team was very top heavy, and the starters seem to be ridden out more than usual. He told me his theory, and it looks to have happened yet again. The Sox really had no choice but to ride out Konerko and Youk despite them being banged up. They simply had no one else to come close to replace them, even when banged up. DeWayne Wise ended up being the best bench player the Sox had this year. Now, I'm fully aware bench players are bench players for a reason. But, the ones they had couldn't even fill in for a day or two a week.

[kittle42]

Originally Posted by SI1020

What information or proof do you need to convince you of anything? This is about as close to a burning bush as you can get. The Sox have made a habit of tanking in the second half in the last decade. Does deconstructionism that is the rage among some mean you have to ignore reality?

As has been pointed out multiple times, looking at one team in a vacuum doesn't tell us much.

Here you go: "The Sox drew 1.9 million customers this season. That's horrible!"

How would I have any appreciation for whether 1.9 million is a godo or bad or average number unless I knew what all the other teams drew?

That was a very basic example, but this is similar.

Another would be Lip's continued "The Sox are hitting XXX with RISP!" all season, but as it turned out, they were at or above the league average. Knowing what they hit with RISP without looking at what all the other teams do for context is just not very informative. It may *sound* like a bad number, but is it?

[hawkjt]

The Sox have the 2nd best win percentage in inter-league play behind only the Yankees. They play all of those interleague games in the first half.
Take out the interleague games,and compare the winning percentages....it would be much closer.

The Sox need to play in the National League to cure their second half woes.

[Lip Man 1]

I'm going to take a little time than I want to start working on something examining more closely the seasons in 2003, 2006 and 2012 (and possibly 2010) to see if there are any common threads as to why they fell apart for varying lenghts of time in the second half and cost them the postseason.

I strongly suspect that there are... along the general lines of injuries, the "house of horrors syndrome," and losing games to bad teams / bad pitchers (which could be related to the Sox 'home run or bust' philosophy all these years.)

We'll see what comes out of this if anything.

Lip

[JB98]

Originally Posted by jdm2662

To add to JB's post, I met him for the first time at the ol ballpark on Memorial Day weekend. I mentioned how the team was very top heavy, and the starters seem to be ridden out more than usual. He told me his theory, and it looks to have happened yet again. The Sox really had no choice but to ride out Konerko and Youk despite them being banged up. They simply had no one else to come close to replace them, even when banged up. DeWayne Wise ended up being the best bench player the Sox had this year. Now, I'm fully aware bench players are bench players for a reason. But, the ones they had couldn't even fill in for a day or two a week.

I was taking a look at the production of the Sox bench players this morning. For purposes of this discussion, I'll limit it to guys who had 50 or more plate appearances in a Sox uniform this year. That means we're talking about Wise, Flowers, Hudson, Escobar, Danks, Lillibridge and Fukudome.

Wise finished with a batting average of .258, and he was the only one of that group who hit better than .224 (Danks).

Wise's OBP was .295, Flowers was at .296. Fukudome was at .294 in his short time with the club. Bench players are bench players, but geez, that's not impressive at all.

OPS, at least Flowers provided a little bit of pop, finishing at .708. Wise was at .700. Nobody else was above .568 (Hudson).

I haven't taken the time to compare Sox bench production with bench production from other clubs, but I think it's safe to say the Sox got little out of their reserve players.

Hell, the bench has been a revolving door all year, which goes to show the Sox weren't happy with what they were getting either. When this club broke camp last spring, the bench was Flowers, Escobar, Fukudome and Lillibridge. Flowers is the only one of the four still with the organization.

[kittle42]

What this team really needs on the bench is a Greg Dobbs type - a guy who loses you very little when you might lose a player to injury, and a guy you can rotate in several days a week at corner OF, 3B, 1B, DH.

[hawkjt]

I really think that the A's and Angels and Giants have a big edge in September over Texas,Sox and other midwest teams due to playing the summer in moderate temps,while Texas and Sox swelter in July and August.

The A's,Angels, and Giants play great late in the year,when they have good teams.

[SoxSpeed22]

I would believe temperature, except that the Cardinals don't really have that problem and St. Louis gets hotter than Chicago.
The biggest problem is a lack of depth everywhere. I'm with Kittle that the Sox need an all-around utility type of player that is at least decent enough with the bat, that we don't lose much with him on the field. Our bench players this year were a total liability on offense that cost us games and forced Robin to use the same lineup in the hot months of July and August. In the Cardinals case, they have enough versatile players on the bench to survive those hot months.

[SI1020]

Originally Posted by kittle42

As has been pointed out multiple times, looking at one team in a vacuum doesn't tell us much.

Here you go: "The Sox drew 1.9 million customers this season. That's horrible!"

How would I have any appreciation for whether 1.9 million is a godo or bad or average number unless I knew what all the other teams drew?

That was a very basic example, but this is similar.

Another would be Lip's continued "The Sox are hitting XXX with RISP!" all season, but as it turned out, they were at or above the league average. Knowing what they hit with RISP without looking at what all the other teams do for context is just not very informative. It may *sound* like a bad number, but is it?

OK, it's been a long day and you know how grumpy an OF can get when he's tired so bear with me. Yes in order to more fully understand a problem you need to look at it in total or as close as you can get. True data was provided for only the Sox and ignoring all the other 29 teams. However sports is kind of a zero sum thing isn't it? Somebody wins, somebody loses. If your team tends to be ****ty in the second half over a fairly long period of time, it's probable that not that many more teams are having the same problem. It would be interesting if one had the time to crunch the first half/ second half and pre and post all star records of all the teams and see how they stack up. However I'm having the temerity of making a judgment based on the stats provided here (thanks Lip Man 1) to say this confirms that the Sox are having trouble closing the deal in the second half. I will say I wholeheartedly agree with this post you made later in the thread.

Originally Posted by kittle42

What this team really needs on the bench is a Greg Dobbs type - a guy who loses you very little when you might lose a player to injury, and a guy you can rotate in several days a week at corner OF, 3B, 1B, DH.

As you've noted here, and JB previously, lack of quality depth has really hurt the Sox in recent years.

[PushinWeight]

If Guillen would have started Clayton Richard in game 1 of the '08 ALDS instead of Javy, I still think the Sox get past the Rays to advance to the ALCS v Boston. I'm not sure how much further in the playoffs they would have gone, nor am I sure what affect (if any) this would have on the attendance, franchise accomplishments, etc., just wanted to bring that up since this reminded me of the '08 season.

[jfinsocal]

Originally Posted by hawkjt

The Sox have the 2nd best win percentage in inter-league play behind only the Yankees. They play all of those interleague games in the first half.
Take out the interleague games,and compare the winning percentages....it would be much closer.

The Sox need to play in the National League to cure their second half woes.

This is a good theory and I mostly agree but one could argue that if they played the NL in the second half of the season the interleague winning percentage wouldn't be so good.

Chicken or the egg here.

[FielderJones]

Originally Posted by jfinsocal

This is a good theory and I mostly agree but one could argue that if they played the NL in the second half of the season the interleague winning percentage wouldn't be so good.

We will find out in the 2013 season as we will be playing interleague all year.

[SCCWS]

Originally Posted by hawkjt

I really think that the A's and Angels and Giants have a big edge in September over Texas,Sox and other midwest teams due to playing the summer in moderate temps,while Texas and Sox swelter in July and August.

The A's,Angels, and Giants play great late in the year,when they have good teams.

Actually Los Angeles is hotter on average July-Sept than Chicago.

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxcli...?sfld1=Chicago, IL&sfld2=los angeles california&clocid1=USIL0225&clocid2=

[hawkjt]

Originally Posted by SCCWS

Actually Los Angeles is hotter on average July-Sept than Chicago.

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxcli...?sfld1=Chicago, IL&sfld2=los angeles california&clocid1=USIL0225&clocid2=

But,as everyone knows, the low humidity out west means that at nite the temps moderate quickly....as Hawk has said many times...the ball does not carry at nite in Angels or Dodgers stadium...but does during the day. That humidity makes a big difference on ball carry,and humans.