2012 Magic Number Countdown Thread

[thomas35forever]

Now that the magic number has reached Sesame Street number territory (20 downward), I think the time is appropriate to start the countdown. You can all feel free to crucify me if you think this is too soon or the Sox choke big time down the stretch. Anyway, the magic number is indeed 20.

[kittle42]

I'm all for counting this down.

[TomBradley72]

Too soon- wait for close of Tigers series- you're a jinx!

[Marqhead]

Thought about posting it last night.

20

[white sox bill]

"Stone pony I just love that You Tube vid"

[amsteel]

Does that make Detroit's magic # 26?

I feel like it shouldn't have been that hard for me to figure that out.

[DSpivack]

Originally Posted by amsteel

Does that make Detroit's magic # 26?

I feel like it shouldn't have been that hard for me to figure that out.

I'm not sure if it makes sense to calculate the magic # for a team who would not currently make the playoffs. You get weird numbers as you just cited: a magic # higher than the remaining games on the schedule.

[amsteel]

Originally Posted by DSpivack

I'm not sure if it makes sense to calculate the magic # for a team who would not currently make the playoffs. You get weird numbers as you just cited: a magic # higher than the remaining games on the schedule.

That makes sense though, right?

\puts on plastic rimmed glasses, takes out mechanical pencil and graph paper
If there are 20 games left and Team X is 5 games up on Team Y. In its simplest form: to win, Team Y would need to win out (20 games) and Team X would have to lose (at least) 6 games. So: games remaining plus games back (or minus games ahead) plus 1.

[doublem23]

At its most elemental, the Magic Number only calculates how what combination of your wins and another team's losses are needed for your team to finish ahead of the other. You can, in theory, find a Magic Number for any team in relation to another, it only gets weird when you try to find the Magic Number for a team that cannot possibly finish ahead of another team (say, like the Cubs or Astros who cannot possibly finish ahead of the Reds and thus, cannot possibly win the NL Central this year). And by weird, I mean, the answer you get is a negative number.

Anyways, the Magic Number formula is:

Magic Number = 163 - Your Team's Wins - Other Team's Losses

If you are looking at this from the perspective of the Tigers to finish ahead of the Sox, their Magic Number is 26.

[DSpivack]

Originally Posted by amsteel

That makes sense though, right?

\puts on plastic rimmed glasses, takes out mechanical pencil and graph paper
If there are 20 games left and Team X is 5 games up on Team Y. In its simplest form: to win, Team Y would need to win out (20 games) and Team X would have to lose (at least) 6 games. So: games remaining plus games back (or minus games ahead) plus 1.

Yes, that math is correct, but...

Originally Posted by doublem23

At its most elemental, the Magic Number only calculates how what combination of your wins and another team's losses are needed for your team to finish ahead of the other. You can, in theory, find a Magic Number for any team in relation to another, it only gets weird when you try to find the Magic Number for a team that cannot possibly finish ahead of another team (say, like the Cubs or Astros who cannot possibly finish ahead of the Reds and thus, cannot possibly win the NL Central this year). And by weird, I mean, the answer you get is a negative number.

Anyways, the Magic Number formula is:

Magic Number = 163 - Your Team's Wins - Other Team's Losses

If you are looking at this from the perspective of the Tigers to finish ahead of the Sox, their Magic Number is 26.

...Doub is right. If the Tigers magic # is 26 but each team has only 22 games left to play, I'm not sure the point of using that number.

[TheVulture]

Originally Posted by DSpivack

If the Tigers magic # is 26 but each team has only 22 games left to play, I'm not sure the point of using that number.

The magic number would have to be greater than twice the number of games remaining for a team to be eliminated, since it is the sum of the teams wins and its opponents losses required to clinch the division. If you are ten games back with ten games remaining, you'd have win ten and they'd have to lose 10, hence a magic number of 20. If it were 21, you would have been eliminated.

[soxnut1018]

Magic number:

[DSpivack]

Originally Posted by TheVulture

The magic number would have to be greater than twice the number of games remaining for a team to be eliminated, since it is the sum of the teams wins and its opponents losses required to clinch the division. If you are ten games back with ten games remaining, you'd have win ten and they'd have to lose 10, hence a magic number of 20. If it were 21, you would have been eliminated.

The magic number being discussed is a theoretical number needed by 2nd (or 3rd or whatever) places teams to clinch the division.

You're talking about the elimination number, which MLB lists in their standings. Not saying you're incorrect at all, just that I think it's easier to use the term elimination number to refer to what you're talking about, as to not get it confused with the magic number.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/

[cub killer]

When do the Trib and/or Sun-Times start the countdown?

[asindc]

Originally Posted by cub killer

When do the Trib and/or Sun-Times start the countdown?

If the Sox are up at least 4 at the end of this series, I think they start counting then.