2012 MLB Draft Thread

[sox1970]

Originally Posted by Domeshot17

That is insane. Hawkins>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Mitchell in terms of potential. Mitchell is still about 25/75 to ever make it to the big leagues, maybe a little better. Hawkins has twice the potential Mitchell does.

Potential, ok. I'll believe you with that.

As far as ranking prospects, I think Mitchell deserves to be higher on the list because he's a lot closer to the big leagues.

Mitchell 25/75 to ever play in the big leagues? Nah. I'd say he's 95% to play in the big leagues. He's leading the Southern League in OBP. He'll make it to the big leagues. We just don't know how good he'll be yet.

[EMachine10]

Originally Posted by Domeshot17

Anything can happen with prospects, but lets not fool ourselves. Those player comparisons and those guys know NOTHING about prospects. The guys on the big board and top available are the ones that do. Harold Reynolds is the MLBTV version of Chris Berman.

Ryan Howard came into the draft at 40 OBP 70 Power, Keon is a 30-60. Keon does play better defense, but it isn't like that is a game changer for 1st round 1st base talent.

The actual player comparisons they use on the screen, they compared a guy who hit 7 home runs in high school to Juan Pierre. That is how much of a joke those are.

If you want to admit Keon was picked to give them more financial flexibility for Hawkins, I can live with that. But Keon was picked with the White Sox strategy of taking guys a round or 2 early and signing them at slot or less and not a round late and paying over slot.

http://espn.go.com/high-school/baseb.../view/position

Still the top prep 1B.

[Domeshot17]

Originally Posted by EMachine10

http://espn.go.com/high-school/baseb.../view/position

Still the top prep 1B.

Yah, he isn't a BAD player, it isn't like we drafted a kid who was a back up on his high school varsity team. But even Churchill comments there that he has a CHANCE to go in the top 100, and he went top 50, thats a bit of a reach is what I and a few others have been saying. Potential? Yes. Reach? Oh Yah. They don't have to be mutually exclusive.

[Harry Chappas]

Originally Posted by Domeshot17

Yah, he isn't a BAD player, it isn't like we drafted a kid who was a back up on his high school varsity team. But even Churchill comments there that he has a CHANCE to go in the top 100, and he went top 50, thats a bit of a reach is what I and a few others have been saying. Potential? Yes. Reach? Oh Yah. They don't have to be mutually exclusive.

Just out of curiosity, I looked up current "all star" caliber players from around the league to see where they were drafted. It shouldn't come as a shock to anyone that there are a hell of a lot of great players that were drafted in the later rounds or not at all.

There is more "guesswork" with amateur baseball players than any other sport as evidenced by the # of 1st round busts. It's crazy to put much stock in "expert" rankings and projections. This is especially true of high school athletes that will have 5-6 years to work on their game and aren't even close to their "prime."

Who knows? Maybe the Sox saw something in Keon and didn't want to risk losing out. No one knows if he would have been available in later rounds. For all we know, he could have been selected one pick later.

[Domeshot17]

Originally Posted by Harry Chappas

Just out of curiosity, I looked up current "all star" caliber players from around the league to see where they were drafted. It shouldn't come as a shock to anyone that there are a hell of a lot of great players that were drafted in the later rounds or not at all.

There is more "guesswork" with amateur baseball players than any other sport as evidenced by the # of 1st round busts. It's crazy to put much stock in "expert" rankings and projections. This is especially true of high school athletes that will have 5-6 years to work on their game and aren't even close to their "prime."

Who knows? Maybe the Sox saw something in Keon and didn't want to risk losing out. No one knows if he would have been available in later rounds. For all we know, he could have been selected one pick later.

It is a very good point. I think the only reason people like me who follow the prospect side pretty heavily get upset is this approach has not been working. I said it in another thread, but with minor league systems, until you have a proven track record, you don't have one. The Sox with the more signable approach have been really weak over the years. Hopefully they turn it around.

As always, I very much hope Keon proves me wrong. But its tough to pass on a player with 2 plus pitches, one that is plus plus, with such a great pitching body like Smorel to reach on Keon. Hopefully the Sox know something we don't.

[doublem23]

The Sox have a chance to end today with the best record in the American League so it looks like whatever they're doing is working pretty well

[UofCSoxFan]

Originally Posted by Domeshot17

Anything can happen with prospects, but lets not fool ourselves. Those player comparisons and those guys know NOTHING about prospects. The guys on the big board and top available are the ones that do. Harold Reynolds is the MLBTV version of Chris Berman.

Ryan Howard came into the draft at 40 OBP 70 Power, Keon is a 30-60. Keon does play better defense, but it isn't like that is a game changer for 1st round 1st base talent.

The actual player comparisons they use on the screen, they compared a guy who hit 7 home runs in high school to Juan Pierre. That is how much of a joke those are.

If you want to admit Keon was picked to give them more financial flexibility for Hawkins, I can live with that. But Keon was picked with the White Sox strategy of taking guys a round or 2 early and signing them at slot or less and not a round late and paying over slot.

Well, Howard was also picked coming out of college, so it's understandable he's more advanced. I agree those player comparisons are dumb anyway but I only quoted it to show he's not a complete turd.

The last point about picking Keon to give them more flexibility is exactly what I'm saying. I read on Twitter that the Sox though Smorel was a better player but didn't think they could sign him at a rate that would give them the flexibility they need.

I know you follow prospects a lot, but to actually think you know, on draft day, whether a pick is a good one or not is the pretense of knowledge. Look at the first rounds the past few years. 2005 was the last year where you had more than 5 solid big leaguers. Part of that is that it takes time for guys to develop (and 2007, 2008, 2009 drafts will look better a few years from now), but a big part of it is the MLB draft is a total crap shoot. 15 scouts can look at the same player and see 15 different career trajectories. Some people will be right and some will be wrong but no one knows for sure right now.

I much rather the Sox take a HS kid with upside then a college kid with upside, given the high school kid has 3 more years to develop.

[EMachine10]

Few picks until the the Sox pick in the 2nd...Assumption from me is a little run on pitchers. They like to target them in that 2/3-8 realm.

[EMachine10]

Christopher Beck, RHP, Georgia Southern.

BA pre-season top 10. Callis: Great Cape Cod League. 2nd best college prospect before season. Not a crisp Spring, didn't throw as hard, not as much bite. Had a lot of potential. They like it if Sox can figure out what went wrong on Friday nights this year.

[DirtySox]

Love the Beck pick. Was a top 15 guy before a down year. Very nice potential here.

[EMachine10]

MLB.com also had Beck #8 pre-season. 6-3 235 - good frame. Good fastball in low 90s, has pushed it up to 96-97. Also has a slider and change; slider has shown to be plus at times.

[EMachine10]

I like the scouting reports that I've read. Good pick in the 2nd.

[KMcMahon817]

Wonderful pick with Beck at 76. He was supposed to be a mid-to-early first rounder pre-season.

Love the pick. Keep it up SOX.

[UofCSoxFan]

Good value here. I think if we flip flopped our 48th pick with our pick here people would be less up in arms.

[Harry Chappas]

Originally Posted by Domeshot17

It is a very good point. I think the only reason people like me who follow the prospect side pretty heavily get upset is this approach has not been working. I said it in another thread, but with minor league systems, until you have a proven track record, you don't have one. The Sox with the more signable approach have been really weak over the years. Hopefully they turn it around.

As always, I very much hope Keon proves me wrong. But its tough to pass on a player with 2 plus pitches, one that is plus plus, with such a great pitching body like Smorel to reach on Keon. Hopefully the Sox know something we don't.

On this point, we're in complete agreement. The Sox need to establish their credentials before anyone should give them the benefit of the doubt. That said, it does seem like their philosophy has changed a bit and they seem to be focusing on the higher-upside "toolsy" players rather than playing it ultra-safe with low-ceiling collegiate pitchers. We'll see if any of these guys (Walker, Mitchell, Thompson, and now Hawkins and Barnum) pan out...