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Old 04-09-2012, 12:07 AM
gosox83 gosox83 is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: Indiana
Posts: 209
Default Most successful base to steal

Does anyone know which base is easier to steal statistically speaking....2nd or 3rd. I know 3rd base is a shorter throw for the catcher, but I thought I remember hearing that 3rd base is stolen at a higher success rate because the runner at 2nd can get a bigger lead because they aren't being "held on" like they are at first.

Thanks in advance for any infor on finding the answer.

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Old 04-09-2012, 08:39 AM
Moses_Scurry Moses_Scurry is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Carmel, IN
Posts: 3,345

It seems to me like runners are more successful at stealing third, probably because the teams are more selective about when to do it. I don't have any statistics to back it up though.

Plus, pickoffs are considered "Caught Stealing". Pickoffs at first happen somewhat frequently (especially if Buehrle is pitching), while pickoffs at second almost never happen. So from a percentage standpoint, I would bet that the stolen third base has a significantly higher success rate, but I would also guess it is much harder to accomplish since teams hardly ever do it unless there is a real Vince Coleman speedster or a terrible catcher (or pitcher at holding runners on).

As a side note, Buehrle's pickoff move is one of the things I'm really going to miss about having him in Chicago. His pickoff move and his defense were what really made him known on a national stage.
What is Mind? -- Doesn't Matter!
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Old 04-09-2012, 02:52 PM
amsteel amsteel is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
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In 2011 here are the SB%:
2nd: 2839/3940 (72.05%)
3rd: 426/551 (77.31%)
Home: 14/49 (28.57%)

In 2010:
2nd: 2593/3570 (72.63%)
3rd: 353/474 (74.47%)
Home: 13/44 (29.54%)

I'm guessing the majority of failed steals at home are botched squeeze attempts.

Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...-batting.shtml

Last edited by amsteel; 04-09-2012 at 02:58 PM.
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