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  #16  
Old 11-18-2009, 01:21 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Disappointing chat log. The Flowers defense question, to hear how much he improved, was like, awesome maybe we have something special here, then to hear his swing isn't that great with a bunch of holes, its just 1 mans opinion, but sounds like we don't have a Victor Martinez calibur catcher here.
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  #17  
Old 11-18-2009, 01:26 PM
Craig Grebeck Craig Grebeck is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Disappointing chat log. The Flowers defense question, to hear how much he improved, was like, awesome maybe we have something special here, then to hear his swing isn't that great with a bunch of holes, its just 1 mans opinion, but sounds like we don't have a Victor Martinez calibur catcher here.
Well, duh. No one's ever hyped him that much. But considering our organization's inability to produce any quality major league catchers, having a guy similar to Mike Napoli would be a very good thing.

.240/.360/.440 would be pretty damn good with solid defense. Flowers has improved -- and that's not to say his defense has maxed out, but I can see him becoming a solid defender.

Edit: and it says a lot that KG would say Viciedo is starting at Charlotte. He has a lot of contacts around baseball and wouldn't use such concrete language if he didn't hear it from someone credible. I can definitely see the organization keeping Morel at 3B and in Birmingham for the entire campaign, and carrying on with the Viciedo at 3B experiment.
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  #18  
Old 11-18-2009, 02:41 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by Craig Grebeck View Post
Well, duh. No one's ever hyped him that much. But considering our organization's inability to produce any quality major league catchers, having a guy similar to Mike Napoli would be a very good thing.

.240/.360/.440 would be pretty damn good with solid defense. Flowers has improved -- and that's not to say his defense has maxed out, but I can see him becoming a solid defender.

Edit: and it says a lot that KG would say Viciedo is starting at Charlotte. He has a lot of contacts around baseball and wouldn't use such concrete language if he didn't hear it from someone credible. I can definitely see the organization keeping Morel at 3B and in Birmingham for the entire campaign, and carrying on with the Viciedo at 3B experiment.
Just the way Flowers has been hyped you would think his bat was something SPECIAL and not just good (but that also could speak about our farm, especially offensively). I agree, you can live with 240-800 ops if Flowers D gets into the very strong range. That said, people were hyping Flowers bat as playing well at 1st or DH if he didn't make it as a C, and clearly if those are his projections, he needs to stay as a C to really hold his value.
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  #19  
Old 11-18-2009, 02:45 PM
oeo oeo is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
That said, people were hyping Flowers bat as playing well at 1st or DH if he didn't make it as a C, and clearly if those are his projections, he needs to stay as a C to really hold his value.
Exactly. I have to question these people. Last year he's a fat piece of **** with a great bat and terrible defense. Now he can become a plus defender but his bat is pretty crappy? How often do these guys actually see them play or do they just make broad assumptions? Sounds like they get conflicting reports from scouts (no surprise) and take what they want from it.
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  #20  
Old 11-18-2009, 03:07 PM
Craig Grebeck Craig Grebeck is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Just the way Flowers has been hyped you would think his bat was something SPECIAL and not just good (but that also could speak about our farm, especially offensively). I agree, you can live with 240-800 ops if Flowers D gets into the very strong range. That said, people were hyping Flowers bat as playing well at 1st or DH if he didn't make it as a C, and clearly if those are his projections, he needs to stay as a C to really hold his value.
His bat is special for a catcher. I think his floor in the league is a .750 OPS catcher with okay defense. That's top ten production in the league.

People who hyped that are looking at his ceiling, which could very well be an .875 OPS. Perhaps they were overzealous, perhaps we learn more about a player's offensive/defensive ability as they progress through higher levels. I tend to agree with the latter.
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Originally Posted by oeo View Post
Exactly. I have to question these people. Last year he's a fat piece of **** with a great bat and terrible defense. Now he can become a plus defender but his bat is pretty crappy? How often do these guys actually see them play or do they just make broad assumptions? Sounds like they get conflicting reports from scouts (no surprise) and take what they want from it.
Players change, OEO. As I stated earlier, you learn more about a player the more they progress through the minor leagues.
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  #21  
Old 11-18-2009, 03:12 PM
EMachine10 EMachine10 is offline
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Phegley and Rodriquez aren't even close to sure things, and are very far away.

Flowers has by all accounts improved dramatically behind the plate, and should be an adequate catcher. His stick is one of a slugger. He is going to strikeout a bunch, walk alot, and hit for power. He will be hitting for a low average with a high OBP and power to make up for it. A comp that is thrown around alot is Mike Napoli.

I think Flowers will be starting at the beginning of 2011, but wouldn't be surprised if he is called up sometime in 2010. This all depends on him not being traded of course.
I always think Napoli when I think Flowers.
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  #22  
Old 11-18-2009, 04:27 PM
oeo oeo is offline
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Originally Posted by Craig Grebeck View Post
His bat is special for a catcher. I think his floor in the league is a .750 OPS catcher with okay defense. That's top ten production in the league.

People who hyped that are looking at his ceiling, which could very well be an .875 OPS. Perhaps they were overzealous, perhaps we learn more about a player's offensive/defensive ability as they progress through higher levels. I tend to agree with the latter.

Players change, OEO. As I stated earlier, you learn more about a player the more they progress through the minor leagues.
Obviously they change, but this is quite the drastic turn. He's gone from one extreme to the other. If their projections change that much from year to year, how can you trust it?

Besides the point, however, because this still doesn't answer my question. How much of these opinions come from actually seeing the player and how much come from just collecting opinions of scouts (there's never a number, just 'some' scouts, 'many' scouts, 'multiple' scouts) and drawing a conclusion?

Last edited by oeo; 11-18-2009 at 04:34 PM.
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  #23  
Old 11-18-2009, 04:53 PM
Craig Grebeck Craig Grebeck is offline
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Obviously they change, but this is quite the drastic turn. He's gone from one extreme to the other. If their projections change that much from year to year, how can you trust it?
Even with massive holes in his swing, if Flowers were to ever come anywhere near (.1-.125) his minor league OPS in the majors, he'd be a very good catcher. They aren't projections, they are evaluations.

Quote:
Besides the point, however, because this still doesn't answer my question. How much of these opinions come from actually seeing the player and how much come from just collecting opinions of scouts (there's never a number, just 'some' scouts, 'many' scouts, 'multiple' scouts) and drawing a conclusion?
It depends on the talent evaluator, but I know that Goldstein watches tape and talks to a ton of scouts.
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  #24  
Old 11-18-2009, 05:38 PM
jabrch jabrch is offline
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It's baseball prospectus guys. This is 50% worthless horsecrap mixed with guesses and halfbaked evaluations and an occasional eyeballing.

I'm waiting to see what BA says. They have much more credibility in my eyes than BP.
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  #25  
Old 11-18-2009, 05:41 PM
DirtySox DirtySox is offline
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Originally Posted by jabrch View Post
It's baseball prospectus guys. This is 50% worthless horsecrap mixed with guesses and halfbaked evaluations and an occasional eyeballing.

I'm waiting to see what BA says. They have much more credibility in my eyes than BP.
I can't wait for Phil Rogers' White Sox top 10.
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  #26  
Old 11-18-2009, 06:03 PM
Craig Grebeck Craig Grebeck is offline
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Originally Posted by jabrch View Post
It's baseball prospectus guys. This is 50% worthless horsecrap mixed with guesses and halfbaked evaluations and an occasional eyeballing.

I'm waiting to see what BA says. They have much more credibility in my eyes than BP.
Yes, anyone that employs Phil Rogers certainly has more credibility than Kevin Goldstein. So do you have any specific problems with KG as a talent evaluator, or are you just spewing bull****?
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  #27  
Old 11-18-2009, 06:54 PM
tm1119 tm1119 is offline
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Originally Posted by Craig Grebeck View Post
Yes, anyone that employs Phil Rogers certainly has more credibility than Kevin Goldstein. So do you have any specific problems with KG as a talent evaluator, or are you just spewing bull****?
Well obviously hes not praising everything White Sox so its gotta be BS.

I thought the evaluations were pretty legit. Obviously anything can happen, but to say that those evaluations are flat out wrong is pretty ridiculous.
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  #28  
Old 11-19-2009, 06:39 PM
oeo oeo is offline
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Originally Posted by tm1119 View Post
Well obviously hes not praising everything White Sox so its gotta be BS.

I thought the evaluations were pretty legit. Obviously anything can happen, but to say that those evaluations are flat out wrong is pretty ridiculous.
Wrong? No, but they hardly deserve a ton of merit. They're basically giving you the what but not the why.
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