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Old 12-12-2012, 11:17 AM
blandman blandman is offline
WSI Church Elder
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,756

Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Dude, give me a break. Did you just start paying attention to baseball like 10 minutes ago? Get some perspective. Here's the top 5 position player prospects, according to BA, from a 5-year window from 2001-2005.

  • Josh Hamilton (#1)
  • Corey Patterson (#2)
  • Sean Burroughs (#6)
  • Ichiro (#9)
  • Nick Johnson (#10)
  • Hank Blalock (#3)
  • Sean Burroughs (#4)
  • Carlos Pena (#5)
  • Joe Mauer (#7)
  • Wilson Betemit (#8)
  • Mark Teixeira (#1)
  • Rocco Baldelli (#2)
  • Jose Reyes (#3)
  • Joe Mauer (#4)
  • Brandon Phillips (#7)
  • Joe Mauer (#1)
  • BJ Upton (#2)
  • Delmon Young (#3)
  • Rickie Weeks (#5)
  • Alex Rios (#6)
  • Joe Mauer (#1)
  • Delmon Young (#3)
  • Ian Stewart (#4)
  • Joel Guzman (#5)
  • Casey Kotchman (#6)
By my count, that's 20 names...

Guys who lived up to their potential and became one of the best players in the world: Hamilton, Ichiro, Mauer, Teixeira, Reyes... I'll be generous and give you Baldelli, too, as who knows what his career could have been. So that's 6.

Guys who became solid MLB players but did/have not lived up to their hype: Johnson, Pena, Phillips, Upton, Young, Rios, Weeks... 7.

Guys who are absolute busts: Patterson, Burroughs, Blalock, Betemit, Stewart, Kotchman... That's 6 more.

Guy who busted so bad I don't even know who he is and I had to check Wikipedia to make sure he wasn't killed in a car accident or something... Joel Guzman... That's the last 1.

So we're talking, even with the absolute highest rated MiLB prospects, it would appear the superstar to complete and utter bust rate is still less than 1:1.
That's an interesting take, I'd be curious to see if that holds historically.

However, I do feel that it understates just how much more valuable a star level player is with no service time. A couple of those would really help you fill out a roster.

edit: Also, I don't want it to sound like I don't think this is a good trade for the Royals. I would have done this deal too. I'm not that high on Myers. He has an obvious hole in his swing that is going to need some serious retooling if he isn't going to be a lifetime .220 hitter.

Last edited by blandman; 12-12-2012 at 11:46 AM.
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