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Old 12-19-2013, 01:42 PM
TDog TDog is offline
WSI Prelate
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Modesto, California
Posts: 17,936

Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
EDIT - OK, nobody is asking you to apologize for HOOOOW your team wins; basically what you've said here is that you prefer to root for a team that wins 95 games with a good offense and mediocre pitching staff over a team that wins 75 games with a good pitching staff and a ****ty offense. Having just spent a year watching the 2013 White Sox, I'm sure we can all relate. The idea that wins are meaningless is ONLY IN THE CONTEXT of comparing two, INDIVIDUAL pitchers to one another. So yes, while we can all agree that we'd much rather root for the team that wins more games, we can also agree that if given the choice, we'd take the 10-game winner, 2.50 ERA pitcher over the 20 W/3.50 ERA pitcher because it's extremely likely that the difference in wins has nothing to do with their individual abilities, but rather things that are completely out of their control; their offenses, their bullpens, etc. That's why people don't give a **** about wins AS AN INDIVIDUAL STAT FOR RATING PITCHERS.

Your argument is basically that you'd rather have Jeremy Guthrie and his 15 wins and 4.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.7 K/9 IP etc. over Chris Sale and his 11 wins and 3.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.5 K/IP becasue, WINS... Guthrie is obviously a 36% better pitcher than Sale because he won 36% more games than he did. And anyone who would argue that would be a lunatic.
My argument is that when I look back at the season, I would rather have the wins than the otherwise better stat line.

If I'm building a team for the future, I am looking at what I think a pitcher can do. That includes innings pitched, the ability to shut down teams the half-inning after the offense has scored (there are pitchers who are consistently challenged with such), the ability to pitch in close games, not lose composure after giving up a home run etc. I am looking at things other than his numbers because my ultimate goal is to win games and winning requires more than plugging in stats.

If I'm looking at a bullpen, I know that there are pitchers who, regardless of their stuff, regardless of their numbers, have trouble consistently closing out games. Everyone who watches baseball sees it. The stat line does not exist in isolation. For one thing, closers rarely pitch half as many innings as their team plays games, so the outlier bad outings can skew their ERAs. In 2013, almost one-third of the earned runs Reed gave up were surrendered in two appearances. And in one of those appearances, he ended up helping the team win after blowing the lead. For another, I've seen plenty of pitchers who have been lights out in the eighth who turned out to be failed closers.
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