View Single Post
  #88  
Old 06-18-2019, 09:28 PM
mzh mzh is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 3,443
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Fine. Sign Abreu over the winter.

I have no idea why people keep thinking that an Abreu trade guarantees anything other than a 2-3 month absence and the return from the trade.

The White Sox will have the exact same control, or lack thereof, of Jose Abreu returning in 2020 whether or not they trade him in 2019. All the trade does is guarantee that you donít lose him for nothing.
That's fair. It worked for the Yankees and Aroldis Chapman. That being said, I don't know what the dynamic between the team and Abreu is. I imagine that if they don't do what you suggest, there's a good reason for it. Players are human, after all. Treating them purely as commodities is probably pushing the idea of pure efficiency to the point of ultimately being inefficient. Say what you want, but team chemistry and leadership quality are both real things that do have an impact on wins and losses, however big or small.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
We don't know exactly what his trade value is, that's not how it works. A lot of trade value resides in current production. He was traded from Tampa to Seattle when his WHIP was 1.5, had an ERA over 4, and an ERA+ of 102. Seattle was buying low. From Seattle to the Sox, he wasn't a closer, but pitched a lot better in late innings recouping his value some. Since coming to the Sox, he's been excellent. Is perfect in his save chances and has a 198 ERA+ with a tiny 0.69 WHIP.

Also keep in mind is there is a big difference in the landscape of late inning relievers now, compared to in the offseason when there were 15 plus of them available. It's widely talked about on this forum and baseball in general on the volatility of relievers year to year, and one way teams protect themselves is by acquiring relievers at or near the deadline that are in the midst of good seasons. They are willing to pay for back end arms that are performing at an elite level that season.

A few examples off the top of my head of relievers gaining value:

Joakim Soria was acquired by the Sox for Luis Avilan (journey man reliever). Then pitched well for the Sox and was traded for Medeiros (former 1st rounder with an ERA around 3.00 in AA at the time of trade).

Aroldis Chapman was acquired by the Yankees for a package of non top 100 prospects from the Reds, flipped him a year or two later to the Cubs as a rental for Gleyber Torres (top 10 prospect).

Colome alone should bring back a top 150 prospect. They should be targeting young pitching in return that is close to being MLB ready. ATL, LAD, CHC, HOU, PHI match up well.
Trade value is defined by what value he would bring back in a trade, so yes, that is exactly how it works. There are circumstantial factors that may alter things slightly in one direction or another, but none of the thing you describe are relevant enough here that the return on a Colome trade would drastically change. Colome is good, but he's not considered an impact arm. If you think he's bringing back anybody that would rank in the top 10 in our system, I think you'd be disappointed.

Soria is actually a good comparison, but your description of Medeiros doesn't really match reality. Avilan is a solid lefty reliever. Medeiros is a guy who has a shot at one day being a solid lefty reliever. Here's what was written from a scouting perspective about Medeiros at the time of the trade. Not super bullish. Entering the 2018 season, Medeiros was ranked 21st and 23rd by Fangraphs and MLB.com on Milwaukee's prospect list. Avilan was probably more valuable, actually.

The Chapman trade has little bearing on Colome. Chapman was one of the top 3 or 4 relievers in baseball at the time, and certainly the best one on the market. He immediately became the closer on the best team in baseball upon being traded. Anybody who trades for Colome this year almost certainly using him as a closer.

We need to temper our expectations as to what these players are worth. Colome is good, but he's far from elite. Among qualified relief pitchers in 2019, he's 29th in ERA, 116th in K/9, and 51st in BB/9. Meanwhile, he's 18th in LOB% and leading the league in BABIP--so it's actually quite fortunate that he's been so good thus far. Absolutely none of that will be lost on any team trading for him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Trading guys whose contracts are up in 2 seasons or less is not kicking the can down the road. It's being realistic.
Trading Eloy, Moncada, or Giolito is kicking the can down the road.
Yes, we get it, you think this whole thing sucks and they'll never contend again. Even if this team finishes 10 games under .500, that's still a 15 game improvement over the year before. If you think that it's not realistic to go from that to a playoff contender the next year, your opinion isn't rooted in reality. The 2014 Astros and Cubs lost 90 and 89 games, respectively. Both made the playoffs in 2015.
Reply With Quote