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Old 02-12-2013, 11:51 AM
mahagga73 mahagga73 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Downs, Il.
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
I don't care if you like them, respect them, think it's pointless mental masturbation, WHATEVER, that's all a personal opinion which I cannot sway one way or the other. But if you're making a declarative statement that BP is simply an irrelevant entity in the baseball world, I will challenge that as simple fiction.

Well first off, anyone who understands Stats 101 knows that even good models turn out bad results from time to time.

That said, the PECOTA Team Projections are only a very, very small sample of what BP does day in and day out. Yes, these are more "for fun." Just like how respected newspapers occasionally publish silly stories on April Fool's Day but then remain respected members of the journalism community the other 364 days of the year, PECOTA's Team Projections are more for fun to see how the statistical model is working, but that doesn't take away from the other, more meaningful work they do that amounts to the vast majority of the work they contribute.
I don't doubt it's relevant to the baseball establishment just that baseball won loss projections are like drawing numbers out of a hat. No amount of number crunching is going to make it any more accurate.
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